Storm/convective Discussion

[thunderhead 2005]

Yeah im keeping a close eye, maybe the first storm of the year CMON

[Harry]

Looking a bit further ahead, thursday evening could bring some imports to the SE corner obviously it will be a case of radar watching, but if imports do come ashore after temps of 33C (or higher ) it could well be bing bang a bang!

Yeah im keeping a close eye, maybe the first storm of the year CMON

Am routing for you!

Edited June 30, 2009 by Harry

[Coast]

Although it seems to be crossing from around Le Havre, this novel. remote control webcam doesn't show anything suspicious: webcam.ville-lehavre.fr

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 30/06/2009 11:02:13

Tracking 1 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID S-485 detected 10:47

Storm location bearing 194.2 dgr distance 110 mi

Last recorded activity 10:59

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 2/minute

Peak strikerate 7/minute

Total recorded strikes 17

Cloud-Ground strikes 7 - 41.18%

Intracloud strikes 10 - 58.82%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 5 - 29.41%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 2 - 11.76%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 4 - 23.53%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 6 - 35.29%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.6.0.2553:PCI

Edited June 30, 2009 by Coast

[thunderhead 2005]

Hopefully the heat will give it some sort of trigger

[Nick L]

Not sure about storms today for the Midlands. Meto have predicted a max temp of 30C for today for the Midlands (Not sure how they came up with that figure) and at the moment it's raining and the sky is filled with cloud. So 30C or even above yesterdays temp of 27C will not be reached, which is not good for any convective developments.

Agreed. Compared to yesterday it is very overcast, the sun doesn't even look like breaking through and it feels much fresher outside too.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Not sure about storms today for the Midlands. Meto have predicted a max temp of 30C for today for the Midlands (Not sure how they came up with that figure) and at the moment it's raining and the sky is filled with cloud. So 30C or even above yesterdays temp of 27C will not be reached, which is not good for any convective developments.

It's been cloudy and raining on and off all morning here...truth be told I reckon those of us in the west of the UK have had it as far as the heat goes. That wont stop the media going on about "Britain" (meaning the South East of England) sizzling though eh?

Edited June 30, 2009 by Carl43Wrexham

[MKN]

clear blue skys here and its already very hot, so not quite all the midlands is overcast, hence why they probably said some areas may reach 30c

[Coast]

From The Times June 29, 2009:

The heatwave has been fuelled by a mass of hot, sticky air feeding in from Europe, where some explosive thunderstorms have been sparked off and huge deluges have flooded large parts of the Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, Romania and Poland.

As that hot air mass has drifted over the Channel, it has been reheated over ground, baked by intense sunshine, to produce scorching temperatures. When the hot air collided with much cooler air aloft it detonated some big thunderstorms, such as the one in Small Heath Park, Birmingham, on Saturday in which teenagers were struck by lightning. A 17-year-old boy who suffered a heart attack in the lightning strike remained in a critical but stable condition in Heartlands Hospital, police said. Five friends aged 16 and 17 were under observation. “I think the boys had been playing cricket and then were standing under a tree, sheltering from the rain,” Vasan Maniam, a park keeper, told the BBC.

www.timesonline.co.uk

[thunderhead 2005]

Activity on the south Coast has De-intensified, the Channel is killing the Cell arg, may just be heavy rain

[Muffelchen]

It's been cloudy and raining on and off all morning here...truth be told I reckon those of us in the west of the UK have had it as far as the heat goes. That wont stop the media going on about "Britain" (meaning the South East of England) sizzling though eh? :winky:

I agree completely and us in the East have had foggy, overcast weather for the last fortnight on and off and it has been positively COLD most days!

[Harry]

I agree completely and us in the East have had foggy, overcast weather for the last fortnight on and off and it has been positively COLD most days!

:winky: That's pants - though at least you sleep easier at night

Even less clouds around now than there was this morning - though if yesterday is anything to go by, I'd expect a sudden burst of convection from around 2-3pm onwards. Blue skies, slightest breeze, burning sun - 28C here now and rising fast! :excl:

[Nick L]

Just light rain now, the majority of the showers inland are fairly light and not thundery. Hopefully this cloud will break soon.

[Phil UK]

Good morning all. :winky:

I agree with Weather09. If this cloud canopy can disperse in time then we are looking at some serious storm activity late afternoon/early evening. Yesterday being a good example with convection and Cb towers well into development by around 4:30pm. As said in Monday 29th Junes storm and convection thread, I had a ringside seat watching that lot develop to my west but by 7:30pm, some thunder and an intense downpour which lasted about 10 minutes.

Otherwise, I'd be favouring the south west, south Wales and even (hold it Harry! Nothing is certain as yet!) The south EAST! But I think by Friday, even I'll be disappointed for you guys in Kent/Sussex/Essex if you've not seen any thundery activity by then.

Phil.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Yeah im keeping a close eye, maybe the first storm of the year CMON :winky:

Is it electrical still?

[thunderhead 2005]

No it's not electrical anymore may just be heavy rain :winky:

[dogs32]

it is actually brightning up here to the South....

So hopefully some sun for some convection

[MKN]

Is it electrical still?

no, it barely was to start with

[*Stormforce~beka*]

No it's not electrical anymore may just be heavy rain

Bugga. Sounds about right!! :excl: :winky:

[StormChaseUK]

I noticed a lot of the bbc local forecasts on media player are not going for rain or showers turning fresher, rather than Hot with thundery breakdown. Did the very active cells last Thursday take all the energy out of the atmosphere?

[dogs32]

That's some good news at least, obviously if the cloud starts to clear there then it will soon follow here and tbh, if yesterday is anything to go by, it only takes an hour of sunshine to get Cb exploding. 3pm yesterday saw some TCu then at around 4pm storms started forming one after the other. So, if by say, 1-2pm this cloud can break then that will be a very positive sign for this evening.

no blue Sky.but things are slowly looking brighter from the South.

It does look in places that the sun isnt far away breaking through

on Sat24 the cloud looks as though its being burnt back from the East

Edited June 30, 2009 by dogs32

[Phil UK]

Will be fresher by this weekend, Daniel. (So sleep lovers, it's as you were. Myself included!) Just needs this LP stuck in mid Atlantic to move its @ss further north and east to clear this heat and humidity away.

But advantages being hot days and evening storms for now. :excl:

Watching that load over the Channel looks to be intensifying. When/if it hits land, what happens then is anyone's guess. But sticking my neck out, I think it will become more electrical by mid afternoon/early evening and given its current trajectory, maybe over Solihull? :winky:

Phil.

Edited June 30, 2009 by Phil UK

[Kookylou]

is positively chilly here and trying to rain

[Guest]

is positively chilly here and trying to rain

:winky:

[dogs32]

back to light rain here............ :winky:

though still looking bright to the South.....

Does look very interesting down South now.If only we had some nice Sun on them cells.

They would probably go bang fairly quickly I would of thought

Met as a warning out for Thursday

Edited June 30, 2009 by dogs32

[Kain]

Anyone else got a feeling this is going to be the most talked about non event ever?

With this cloud cover, nothing is going to happen, and to be honest. it doesnt look like the sun is going to burn through it either.

This one is going to be interesting, if nothing else frustrating