Storm/convective Discussion

[donna-m]

Ok so this looks like it could be the real deal, I live just to the south of Ipswich and presently we are yet to have cloud overhead yet I can see A LOT of lightning, it is very frequent too - probably about a flash every 5 seconds, i've never seen lightning before cloud cover so am hoping that this is going to be a beast!!!!!

evening pinball

what way is the lightning ???,, i have 3 local detectors and all 3 are showing completly different lightning strike!!!

i have faint thunder

Edited July 2, 2009 by donna-m

[Nick F]

Thanks Nick....Greenday made a good point though about the lack of boyancy ahead of the MCS....Would nocturnal cooling countermand this?

sorry, ignore post, you've already answered my question

There's probably a lack of bouyancy in the boundary which is fairly stable I imagine for now, but above this is turning rather unstable in the mid and upper levels as nocturnal cooling takes place plus destabilisation of plume by low/trough drifting N across E channel.

[J-Me]

Really! i live 5 miles outside ramsgate, yes the storm is rumbling along nicely

with some good lightning but we have had hardly any rain.

You amaze me - Birchington has just been kicked in the face by tropical type rain. I haven't seen rain like this in ages - I don't even think last summer had anything like this. I have 2 large flower pots on the patio that filled with gutter overflow in just under 5 minutes!

[Greeny]

Starting to kick off here in Eastbourne = storm is weird tho...goes all quiet winds get up (downdrafts) then no lightning...mins later it starts again and its closer

hmm maybe a good sign of the storms back building and making the storms move very slowly. Usually a daughter is formed behind the decaying front storm

[andy_leics22]

Just popped my head out the window, feels stormy out there, theres some orange looking clouds and it feels extremely warm here for a night time temperature! Just checked XCweather, Coventry airport which is 20 miles down the road is reading 22c at 12:20am, it flippin feels it aswell!! Ridiculously mild here for nearly 1am.

[Neilsouth]

Still some bright flash's , but rain has stopped for now!

Remember Nick F , what i was talking about with the altocumulus? Now you know why

[Roger J Smith]

An MCS of historic proportions may be developing and moving into a large part of southeast England. Neil's obs combined with a recent report of 1 cm hail in northern France and east wind gusting to 40 mph at Langdon Bay combine with continued pressure falls to 1013 mbs suggesting meso-scale low is forming and transferring energy from Thursday's meso-scale low that tracked east across northern France (and has recently filled).

Given the widespread nature of the lightning and the climatology of MCS systems, specific energy peak now to 0230 for this one, I would say it is all going to spiral in towards London and create a memorable if not monster storm for the southeast tonight.

This is capable of producing 75 mms of rain and near-continuous lightning, 2 cm hail and local wind gusts (most likely east except possibly SSE with the western flank) to 50 mph. Not too many people will see those wind gusts or get the hail, but don't be surprised if you do ... a lot more people will get the rain and the frequent and intense lightning.

Eventually I expect the two clusters to rotate around a fixed point in the southern North Sea and move back out to the northeast tomorrow morning. The main cold front will be sheared but one or two moderate cells could develop along that (being dragged along behind the MCS) but further north the front will not be dragged in and it may weaken and then redevelop in northern and eastern England tomorrow. Meanwhile that blob approaching Ireland from the southwest is yet another potentially heavy thunderstorm complex developing for Ireland tomorrow and the UK Friday night or Saturday.

Other than that, nothing much happening. (here)

[Nick F]

Still some bright flash's , but rain has stopped for now!

Remember Nick F , what i was talking about with the altocumulus? Now you know why

indeed, often a precursor to thunderstorms ...

[Centrice]

Really! i live 5 miles outside ramsgate, yes the storm is rumbling along nicely

with some good lightning but we have had hardly any rain.

yeah im in cliffsend, kinda calmed down now. But the rain was unbelievably heavy!

that reminds me, I need to change my location!

Edited July 2, 2009 by Centrice

[Greeny]

There's probably a lack of bouyancy in the boundary which is fairly stable I imagine for now, but above this is turning rather unstable in the mid and upper levels as nocturnal cooling takes place plus destabilisation of plume by low/trough drifting N across E channel.

That was my hope that the atmosphere ahead of the storms quickly change to greet the storms with better capability of maintaining them.

[Neilsouth]

Roger J Smith what a brilliant write up and i'd totaly agree with it being possibly a MCS of historic proportions. Never in my life have i seen such rain!

[Nick F]

Given the widespread nature of the lightning and the climatology of MCS systems, specific energy peak now to 0230 for this one, I would say it is all going to spiral in towards London and create a memorable if not monster storm for the southeast tonight.

Now you're talking dirty ... stop it! Lol

I agree though, hence my forecast of severe weather earlier.

[Lewis]

Sounds like a Friday night in Leicester

Just kidding. For anyone who wants to have a look at the satellite picture of the development of those storms, here it is...

http://www.sat24.com/HomepageAnim.aspx?cou...t=vis&type=

You know what that sat shows dont you, 2 MCS FORMING!

[k66yla]

I still have'nt seen or heard anything so I'm off to bed got to let my chooks out at 5, hopefully things might be occuring then.

[Wales123098]

front intensifing (sorry about that spelling) in the SW moving towards Cardiff from Weston. Will that have some lightning?

[A Wintry Mix]

You amaze me - Birchington has just been kicked in the face by tropical type rain. I haven't seen rain like this in ages - I don't even think last summer had anything like this. I have 2 large flower pots on the patio that filled with gutter overflow in just under 5 minutes!

Im in minster and ive just been outside and stood on the decking in socks

and my feet are not even damp!

just started spitting now

[bybo1999]

Roger J Smith what a brilliant write up and i'd totaly agree with it being possibly a MCS of historic proportions. Never in my life have i seen such rain!

another tower going up to the south of the one that just hit east kent on sat24 radar

[sabrewulf]

An MCS of historic proportions may be developing and moving into a large part of southeast England. Neil's obs combined with a recent report of 1 cm hail in northern France and east wind gusting to 40 mph at Langdon Bay combine with continued pressure falls to 1013 mbs suggesting meso-scale low is forming and transferring energy from Thursday's meso-scale low that tracked east across northern France (and has recently filled).

Given the widespread nature of the lightning and the climatology of MCS systems, specific energy peak now to 0230 for this one, I would say it is all going to spiral in towards London and create a memorable if not monster storm for the southeast tonight.

This is capable of producing 75 mms of rain and near-continuous lightning, 2 cm hail and local wind gusts (most likely east except possibly SSE with the western flank) to 50 mph. Not too many people will see those wind gusts or get the hail, but don't be surprised if you do ... a lot more people will get the rain and the frequent and intense lightning.

Eventually I expect the two clusters to rotate around a fixed point in the southern North Sea and move back out to the northeast tomorrow morning. The main cold front will be sheared but one or two moderate cells could develop along that (being dragged along behind the MCS) but further north the front will not be dragged in and it may weaken and then redevelop in northern and eastern England tomorrow. Meanwhile that blob approaching Ireland from the southwest is yet another potentially heavy thunderstorm complex developing for Ireland tomorrow and the UK Friday night or Saturday.

Other than that, nothing much happening. (here)

thanks for the write up. appreciated.

sounds like a monster headling my way , hopefully.

[Tim B]

Strikes also being detected in the frontal rainband now.

[kold weather]

Lots of convection crossing the Channel, looks like the bes tof it will slip either side of my location but if that does happen it'll be fair game for the utter monster that I had last Saturday.

Will be interesting to see what happens as it heads into the London region and it gets into the urban heat effect.

[Glideslope]

oh no...lightning seems to have eased off

Steve

[Neilsouth]

The mcs has split into Two huge cells

Impressive

[Nick F]

Must be very interesting having a vantage point along the coast from Brighton to Eastbourne right now as intense line of storms makes landfall, wish I had jumped in the car and headed down there now, but hopefully this lot will head up the road here.

[Noctilucid]

Round one is dieing off now, round two is gtting underway.

[UKSupercell]

What a coincidence that last night I was bored and thought i'd watch a movie, flicked through all the dvd's and thought i'd watch THE PERFECT STORM again. No joke, I genuinely saw it and wanted to watch it again. Ironic that tonight I could be in for a perfect storm but I'm still not perfectly positive about this cos I know how quick French imports die out and it seems the lightning has decreased hugely in frequency. No surprises then.

Will it or wont it, that is the question.