Storm/convective Discussion

[Nick F]

Please carry on discussion of tonight's and tomorrow's storm potential ....

T+00 fax for 1800hrs this evening:

Looks interesting across coast of Normandy with a rash of sferics - with a very slow trajectory N atm, will the SE get a light show later? Well 12z UKMO suggested a MCS area moving N across SE after midnight - so fingers crossed.

[maidstone weather]

(in response to Neilsouth's now deleted post) i can't see anything here!? why is there such a big difference, it's completely clear of any cloud formation except this milky layer :wub:

[Wilxy]

Things are gunna be increasingly intresting now for SE areas. I think that cold front is stuck but it is slowly moving east so may get some rain later unless it dies.

[StormChaser]

When you say south east? is oxfordshire included nick?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

As I asked in the last thread - what's with the stuff over France? What is the cause and why are MetO still only really mentioning the cold front over the West? Finally, storm chances for me (S. Norfolk) and Chloe (W.London), please? :wub:

[Tim B]

Stop talking about the south east...

Though you are right, it could turn out to be an interesting night down there.

Edit: Hmm, noticed rain in my area and went for a look thinking it must be an anaprop and noticed theres quite a few castellanus clouds knocking around.

[Wilxy]

Theres actally been i tiny bit of intensity in that cold front devon only.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

David Walliams can cross the channel, but storms cant :wub:

[maidstone weather]

Stop talking about the south east...

Though you are right, it could turn out to be an interesting night down there.

it's hardly got a mention all week because it's all been opp norf! :wub:

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Theres actally been i tiny bit of intensity in that cold front devon only.

On the radar I'm seeing, that's where the brightest colours are.

[Harry]

Well, I suppose the MetO and Beeb are running on the assumption it wont make landfall!

Though I suspect they simply havent caught up yet, as the storms over N France atm didnt appear on the BBC forecast earlier today.

If that band keeps trajectory (which I imagine it wont keep precisely as it rotates slightly around the Low) it should hit anywhere from E Kent to W London. But, as we know, it could weaken, intensify, move E/W - have to keep watching I think!!

[Roger J Smith]

Wow, gusts to 54 mph at Le Touquet from a southwest direction, I was only expecting heavy rain and intense lightning, not strong wind gusts, but this indicates that a supercell thunderstorm has developed just across the Straits of Dover.

I still think Hampshire is included in the landfall zone (from the activity around Le Havre) but with the rotation of the system expected from my research, I can't see this missing the southeast now, earlier I was a little concerned that it might rotate off the coast in Belgium and only scrape east Kent, now it looks quite locked in to move across.

Would suggest a comparison to Mr Data's thread (many will perhaps remember reading it) on the massive overnight thunderstorm event in July, 1926 ... in the historical weather section ... in fact there is a research comparison but also the general synoptics are similar. That meso-scale low is going to shunt all the heavy stuff over northeast France towards southeast England.

[Nick F]

When you say south east? is oxfordshire included nick?

I wish I could say yes, but very hard to tell if anything will happen that far NW, though you do have the cold front coming through in the morning which may bring something

David Walliams can cross the channel, but storms cant :wub:

Why not??

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

MCS is Multi-Cell System, correct? Is it a Spanish Plume? Also, when you say it'll rotate around the Low, that means it'll swing more north-west (backing, rather than veering, I think?)

Sorry to ask so many simple questions, but I'm a novice and this is a great learning experience for me!

[Coast]

David Walliams can cross the channel, but storms cant :wub:

Keep an eye on this one:

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID Y-5900 detected 19:24

Storm location bearing 142.0 dgr distance 106 mi

Last recorded activity 21:32

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Weakening

Current strikerate 9/minute

Peak strikerate 29/minute

Total recorded strikes 797

Cloud-Ground strikes 375 - 47.05%

Intracloud strikes 422 - 52.95%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 39 - 4.89%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 336 - 42.16%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 291 - 36.51%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 131 - 16.44%

-------------------------------------------------------

Reporting from the IOW station and heading straight for it!

[Wilxy]

Is one of the storms heading for IOW looks like it to me.

[Harry]

Wow, gusts to 54 mph at Le Touquet from a southwest direction, I was only expecting heavy rain and intense lightning, not strong wind gusts, but this indicates that a supercell thunderstorm has developed just across the Straits of Dover.

I still think Hampshire is included in the landfall zone (from the activity around Le Havre) but with the rotation of the system expected from my research, I can't see this missing the southeast now, earlier I was a little concerned that it might rotate off the coast in Belgium and only scrape east Kent, now it looks quite locked in to move across.

Would suggest a comparison to Mr Data's thread (many will perhaps remember reading it) on the massive overnight thunderstorm event in July, 1926 ... in the historical weather section ... in fact there is a research comparison but also the general synoptics are similar. That meso-scale low is going to shunt all the heavy stuff over northeast France towards southeast England.

There are a hell of a lot of people hoping you are right there Roger :wub:

[maidstone weather]

There are a hell of a lot of people hoping you are right there Roger

supercell :wub:

no, but in all seriousness just a flash of lightning would make my day (well, night :lol: )

[StormChaseUK]

just checked the meso, the front is actually 6-8 hours behind.

[remymartin]

IF these storms get to london will they intencify due to the city heating

[Harry]

I think the potential MCS is going to be the cells over the NE France merging with the band swinging up behind them.

The best thing is, again not wanting to jynx anything, is that there isn't much cloud flowing in, so if and when it makes landfall it should be visible from a good distance.

[Neilsouth]

Lots of altocumlus here really thick , the humidity has shot up . Looking GOOD!

[Mondy]

For those who read it, my earlier post was deleted, like a few recent others - seems this thread is "exclusively SE" - which it didn't say on the tin. Sometimes I just don't understand how this place is run. Who is deleting willy-nilly to suit?

Deleting a post is fine, but without notice or reason is plain wrong, particularly when others have a point.

[maidstone weather]

Lots of altocumlus here really thick , the humidity has shot up . Looking GOOD!

seriously - where are you getting all this altocu? i haven't got a cloud in the sky?!

[Tim B]

Just been looking at those storms in the channel on the 5 min radar, nasty.

That's gonna cause some damage if it makes landfall.