Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Storm/convective Discussion


Nick F

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Please carry on discussion of tonight's and tomorrow's storm potential ....

    T+00 fax for 1800hrs this evening:

    post-1052-1246566572_thumb.png

    Looks interesting across coast of Normandy with a rash of sferics - with a very slow trajectory N atm, will the SE get a light show later? Well 12z UKMO suggested a MCS area moving N across SE after midnight - so fingers crossed.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 691
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Things are gunna be increasingly intresting now for SE areas. I think that cold front is stuck but it is slowly moving east so may get some rain later unless it dies.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    As I asked in the last thread - what's with the stuff over France? What is the cause and why are MetO still only really mentioning the cold front over the West? Finally, storm chances for me (S. Norfolk) and Chloe (W.London), please? :wub:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Darwen, BB3
  • Location: Darwen, BB3

    Stop talking about the south east...

    Though you are right, it could turn out to be an interesting night down there.

    Edit: Hmm, noticed rain in my area and went for a look thinking it must be an anaprop and noticed theres quite a few castellanus clouds knocking around.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Theres actally been i tiny bit of intensity in that cold front devon only.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    Theres actally been i tiny bit of intensity in that cold front devon only.

    On the radar I'm seeing, that's where the brightest colours are.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    Well, I suppose the MetO and Beeb are running on the assumption it wont make landfall!

    Though I suspect they simply havent caught up yet, as the storms over N France atm didnt appear on the BBC forecast earlier today.

    If that band keeps trajectory (which I imagine it wont keep precisely as it rotates slightly around the Low) it should hit anywhere from E Kent to W London. But, as we know, it could weaken, intensify, move E/W - have to keep watching I think!!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Wow, gusts to 54 mph at Le Touquet from a southwest direction, I was only expecting heavy rain and intense lightning, not strong wind gusts, but this indicates that a supercell thunderstorm has developed just across the Straits of Dover.

    I still think Hampshire is included in the landfall zone (from the activity around Le Havre) but with the rotation of the system expected from my research, I can't see this missing the southeast now, earlier I was a little concerned that it might rotate off the coast in Belgium and only scrape east Kent, now it looks quite locked in to move across.

    Would suggest a comparison to Mr Data's thread (many will perhaps remember reading it) on the massive overnight thunderstorm event in July, 1926 ... in the historical weather section ... in fact there is a research comparison but also the general synoptics are similar. That meso-scale low is going to shunt all the heavy stuff over northeast France towards southeast England.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    When you say south east? is oxfordshire included nick?

    I wish I could say yes, but very hard to tell if anything will happen that far NW, though you do have the cold front coming through in the morning which may bring something

    David Walliams can cross the channel, but storms cant :wub:

    Why not??

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    MCS is Multi-Cell System, correct? Is it a Spanish Plume? Also, when you say it'll rotate around the Low, that means it'll swing more north-west (backing, rather than veering, I think?)

    Sorry to ask so many simple questions, but I'm a novice and this is a great learning experience for me!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
    David Walliams can cross the channel, but storms cant :wub:

    Keep an eye on this one:

    -------------------------------------------------------

    Thunderstorm ID Y-5900 detected 19:24

    Storm location bearing 142.0 dgr distance 106 mi

    Last recorded activity 21:32

    Intensity class Weak

    Intensity trend Weakening

    Current strikerate 9/minute

    Peak strikerate 29/minute

    Total recorded strikes 797

    Cloud-Ground strikes 375 - 47.05%

    Intracloud strikes 422 - 52.95%

    -- Strike type distribution --

    Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 39 - 4.89%

    Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 336 - 42.16%

    Positive Intracloud [+IC] 291 - 36.51%

    Negative Intracloud [-IC] 131 - 16.44%

    -------------------------------------------------------

    Reporting from the IOW station and heading straight for it!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    Wow, gusts to 54 mph at Le Touquet from a southwest direction, I was only expecting heavy rain and intense lightning, not strong wind gusts, but this indicates that a supercell thunderstorm has developed just across the Straits of Dover.

    I still think Hampshire is included in the landfall zone (from the activity around Le Havre) but with the rotation of the system expected from my research, I can't see this missing the southeast now, earlier I was a little concerned that it might rotate off the coast in Belgium and only scrape east Kent, now it looks quite locked in to move across.

    Would suggest a comparison to Mr Data's thread (many will perhaps remember reading it) on the massive overnight thunderstorm event in July, 1926 ... in the historical weather section ... in fact there is a research comparison but also the general synoptics are similar. That meso-scale low is going to shunt all the heavy stuff over northeast France towards southeast England.

    There are a hell of a lot of people hoping you are right there Roger :wub:

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    I think the potential MCS is going to be the cells over the NE France merging with the band swinging up behind them.

    The best thing is, again not wanting to jynx anything, is that there isn't much cloud flowing in, so if and when it makes landfall it should be visible from a good distance.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Lots of altocumlus here really thick , the humidity has shot up :D . Looking GOOD!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

    For those who read it, my earlier post was deleted, like a few recent others - seems this thread is "exclusively SE" - which it didn't say on the tin. Sometimes I just don't understand how this place is run. Who is deleting willy-nilly to suit?

    Deleting a post is fine, but without notice or reason is plain wrong, particularly when others have a point.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Darwen, BB3
  • Location: Darwen, BB3

    Just been looking at those storms in the channel on the 5 min radar, nasty.

    That's gonna cause some damage if it makes landfall.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...