Storm/convective Discussion

[Neilsouth]

Those in North Kent , east kent look to your south east

The sky is flashing , wooooooo

[A Wintry Mix]

oh is it another East Kent clipper scenario? Methinks so

Now, thats what i want to here!

patiently waiting for my first proper storm

[anvilhead]

wondering if thats a cell poped up in the channel upwind of the weymouth/dorset area .. if anything does form and move up the west close to that front, could be some severe storms imo -

[Neilsouth]

Now, thats what i want to here!

patiently waiting for my first proper storm

You should be able to see the storm flashing to your south east , Look out your window

[*AL*]

Wow radar is looking great!! Loads of electrical activity over the Channel.I think they'll survive the crossing and head in a NNW direction.Southern counties could see some storms in the early morning i think.

[maidstone weather]

Those in North Kent , east kent look to your south east

The sky is flashing , wooooooo

grr lmao!

20.3C blimey! warmest it's been at this time all week!

[PB22]

Things seem to be developing over the southern North Sea now looking at latest radar...

[Harry]

oh is it another East Kent clipper scenario? Methinks so

I think so too - this is ball cack, lol! I am considering leaping in the car and heading down the M20!

[Coast]

Anyhoo knowing my luck that little gap between the two main masses will pass over here!

I have a feeling the split between the storms will come just over Beachy Head - where incidentally I may be going shortly when I can track down Mr Sherman on his wifes phone!

BTW evening Callie and Mr CB, look to the skies!!!!!

[Noctilucid]

First bunch of storms will be Kent clippers, the next bunch will be more widespread.

Oh dear I just mentioned the SE, shoot me.

[dogs32]

Bekka..you just might get your first storm......dont hold me to it though

[rhip]

lots of lightning in the distance, and constant rumble now, seems to be getting brighter and slightly louder, just wondering if it is worth trying to go to bed, or if the kids will be up again in half an hour

[Dean E]

May this be my chance for a storm!

Its been a while now

Not warnings from Meto though?

[striker]

East Kent should see some activity from the Calais cell but watch out for the bigger one racing its way NW from LeHarve, might be fun for those further along the south coast.

Edited July 2, 2009 by striker

[Carl46Wrexham]

May this be my chance for a storm!

Its been a while now

Not warnings from Meto though?

Serious question :

This lot currently crossing the channel looks pretty intense...why no warnings? And why are the old warnings for parts of Wales and the SW re : thundery rain still in place?

I am not having a dig at the Met Office but I do think these questions deserve answers

[dogs32]

dont jinx it now dogs

it really does look like its tracking directly towards me. ok thats probably wishful thinking but the images are looking good now.

hi mate......you said you calculated the time IF they came your way.cant find your post.what time did you make it

Edited July 2, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

Drive down towards the coast then drive back to meet the next batch - is it worth 2 hours driving?

Nah - will stay put!!

Attention Coast in particular - have you noticed that in between this annoying 'gap' there is a further load of cells filling it in, albeit a tad further away??

This looks bloody exciting indeed

OH - and MW, have you seen how the LeHarve cells have exploded since HITTING the CHANNEL...of all places!! The cruellest twist will be for them to die after making landfall, with E Kent hogging the glory again! Thinking of driving out to the West Kingsdown view point with some binochulars - see if I can see the soon to be E Kent cells, then hopefully start to see lightning way off to the S

Edited July 2, 2009 by Harry

[10 Days Away]

Just been outside and saw a very distant flash to the SE. getting closer

[A Wintry Mix]

You should be able to see the storm flashing to your south east , Look out your window

Had to walk outside to get a good view,

and yes i can see them whoooopeeeeeee

it feels very close out there

is this the night my storm cherry is popped

[MR CB]

I have a feeling the split between the storms will come just over Beachy Head - where incidentally I may be going shortly when I can track down Mr Sherman on his wifes phone!

BTW evening Callie and Mr CB, look to the skies!!!!!

Evening Coast - I tend to agree...although I wouldn't rule out that area just to the lower right of the main lot heading towards IOW/Hampshire...

[Coast]

From the Worthing station:

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 02/07/2009 22:52:00

Tracking 5 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID K-5662 detected 21:07

Storm location bearing 114.9 dgr distance 28 mi

Last recorded activity 22:51

Intensity class Strong

Intensity trend Weakening

Current strikerate 37/minute

Peak strikerate 81/minute

Total recorded strikes 2817

Cloud-Ground strikes 1404 - 49.84%

Intracloud strikes 1413 - 50.16%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 134 - 4.76%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 1270 - 45.08%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 880 - 31.24%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 533 - 18.92%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID A-5679 detected 21:07

Storm location bearing 153.2 dgr distance 30 mi

Last recorded activity 22:51

Intensity class Strong

Intensity trend Weakening

Current strikerate 56/minute

Peak strikerate 119/minute

Total recorded strikes 7234

Cloud-Ground strikes 2888 - 39.92%

Intracloud strikes 4346 - 60.08%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 334 - 4.62%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 2554 - 35.31%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 2721 - 37.61%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 1625 - 22.46%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID Y-3479 detected 22:17

Storm location bearing 128.6 dgr distance 24 mi

Last recorded activity 22:51

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Weakening

Current strikerate 7/minute

Peak strikerate 34/minute

Total recorded strikes 149

Cloud-Ground strikes 79 - 53.02%

Intracloud strikes 70 - 46.98%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 10 - 6.71%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 69 - 46.31%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 49 - 32.89%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 21 - 14.09%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID G-3110 detected 22:11

Storm location bearing 89.4 dgr distance 59 mi

Last recorded activity 22:51

Intensity class Moderate

Intensity trend Intensifying

Current strikerate 16/minute

Peak strikerate 17/minute

Total recorded strikes 150

Cloud-Ground strikes 82 - 54.67%

Intracloud strikes 68 - 45.33%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 4 - 2.67%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 78 - 52.00%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 52 - 34.67%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 16 - 10.67%

-------------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID B-3975 detected 22:25

Storm location bearing 172.8 dgr distance 24 mi

Last recorded activity 22:50

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 3/minute

Peak strikerate 7/minute

Total recorded strikes 55

Cloud-Ground strikes 16 - 29.09%

Intracloud strikes 39 - 70.91%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 3 - 5.45%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 13 - 23.64%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 20 - 36.36%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 19 - 34.55%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.6.0.2553:PCI

[Hodgheg]

I cant get on the metoffice website grr.

Love to be there on the south coast right now. Have fun down there.

[Lewis]

East Kent should see some activity from the Calais cell but watch out for the bigger one racing its way from LeHarve.

I agree with you on that, everything is starting to look promising, i want to wait and see the next meto radar and update on sferic radars in about 35 mins time, reason why is because im unsure what's going to happen next when it makes full landfall.

I'm not trying to worry anyone, but it's happened before.

This time looks bloody promising indeed and you folks in the S/SE deserve it, especially after the other week when everything went tits up and pushed too far E etc.

Ill post an update shortly.

Edited July 2, 2009 by Lewis

[clark3r]

Serious question :

This lot currently crossing the channel looks pretty intense...why no warnings? And why are the old warnings for parts of Wales and the SW re : thundery rain still in place?

I am not having a dig at the Met Office but I do think these questions deserve answers

they are quite along way out in the channel at the moment maybe they are going to fizzle out by the time they hit the coast???

[loopydreamer]

here in redditch about 10 mins ago i heard rain on the window!

i rushed downstairs and outside and the most massive drop of rain fell on my head and almost soaked the whole of my hair lol! they were the most massive drops of rain i have ever remembered seeing! They fell for 10 seconds