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Nick F

By Nick F
in Storms & Severe Weather

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

If anyone has the NW extra radar then I suggest that they put in the 1000hPa and upper wind vectors to show where the main MCS coming out of France is heading. There is a strong surface level easterly inflow present. However the upper air soundings take the MCS on a more northerly track. The main question is not where it will hit but will it have the legs. If it does then Coast you are in for a treat!

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Bofh Newbie

Bofh

Posted
  • Location: Glastonbury
  • Location: Glastonbury
Posted
hi mate......you said you calculated the time IF they came your way.cant find your post.what time did you make it

i reckon about 5 hours....

hopefully there will be enough latent heat to give them a boost after their chilly channel crossing.

its horribly muggy here still 22.4c 57% humidity so i'm crossing everything.

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Noctilucid Newbie

Noctilucid

Posted
  • Location: Romford
  • Location: Romford
Posted
Serious question :

This lot currently crossing the channel looks pretty intense...why no warnings? And why are the old warnings for parts of Wales and the SW re : thundery rain still in place?

I am not having a dig at the Met Office but I do think these questions deserve answers

They've probrably got sick of people whinging when they put a warning out and there isn't a big enough storm to satisfy people.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted
i reckon about 5 hours....

hopefully there will be enough latent heat to give them a boost after their chilly channel crossing.

its horribly muggy here still 22.4c 57% humidity so i'm crossing everything.

yes and the land fules them.....then many other parts through the morning will get a taste

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

The humidity is going up and up atleast thats how it feels , but these storms sure are impressive on radar and sferics :)

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Lewis Newbie

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

BREAKING NEWS, i remember now this is the same setup as the summer 2005 or was it 2006, when hull got a peachie storm for like 7 hours during the night, exactly the same scenario accept i dont have 2 n half thousand J/Kg of CAPE lol

Edited by Lewis
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mackerel sky Explorer

mackerel sky

Posted
  • Location: Rushden, East Northamptonshire
  • Location: Rushden, East Northamptonshire
Posted

Some of the comments and observations in this thread, not so much this one but the previous have made me laugh somewhat. The CAPE forecast as far as I can see hasn't 'lied' about the lack of home grown convection in southern areas east of Dorset, nor for that matter for much of the Midlands. My understanding is, and please correct me if i'm wrong, that the lingering cold front which has stalled and weakened over parts of the west country and western Wales was never going to spread east as a definitive frontal system. With the huge CAPE over northern and northeast France this afternoon the situation was always going to be imports... just seen the 18z and its less promising that they will maintain much lightening activity once beyond say the Sussex area. The 12z perhaps suggested that with CAPE levels of 0-2 j/kg overnight the storms might be expected to sustain some strength - with more potential for East Anglia in the afternoon. 18z scuppers this, so if true the Met Office are right... expect a dull, quite wet morning in the SE and parts of Central England, brightening up in the afternoon. East Anglia might get off to a good start with the chance of storms in the afternoon.

I hope this is wrong of course, and the unexpected occurs with an explosive night, but its not fair to say its a let down, and all the whinging. A more honest assessment said the prospect for southern/south-east/most central areas was poor for home grown storms, let alone imports maintaining any level of strength. Good watering for the plants in the morning though.

Irony I got back from the Algarve yesterday, and all week its been hotter here than there. Now the reverse is true.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted
Latest radar is more encouraging - I'm off to watch the sea!!!! have fun guys!

I'll hoot as I pass! :)

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted
i reckon about 5 hours....

hopefully there will be enough latent heat to give them a boost after their chilly channel crossing.

its horribly muggy here still 22.4c 57% humidity so i'm crossing everything.

look at the direction on sat :)

http://www.sat24.com/gb

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Kain Contributor

Kain

Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
Posted
They've probrably got sick of people whinging when they put a warning out and there isn't a big enough storm to satisfy people.

Thats actually a whitty answer lol.

It's getting more humid here now, but its been strangely pleasent today humidity wise.

I wonder if it's worth staying up and seeing what happens with these MCS's. Only a slight chance they will make it this far, but certianly theres enough fuel for the fire I would have thought.

Any opinions on this?

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted

It needs to go slightly west and pound IOW, Hants and Sussex and maybe Dorset and then it can go lol. Kent get plenty but us lot don't see a thing lately.

Ok so realistically what are my chances?

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Thunderstorm now just off the south east coast !

Can see some good flashs across the south east coastline :)

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MetWX Newbie

MetWX

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Location: Hampshire
Posted
May this be my chance for a storm!

Its been a while now :)

Not warnings from Meto though? :)

Keep me posted Snowmania, might head down to Portsdown Hill again!

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Mike Storm Apprentice

Mike Storm

Posted
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
Posted (edited)

pick me up if you do!!! oops I was refering to Harrys earlier post considering driving down the M20 !!!!

Edited by MikeStanton
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striker Newbie

striker

Posted
  • Location: Barnstaple N. Devon
  • Location: Barnstaple N. Devon
Posted

I wouldn't bet on the Kent cells been 'clippers' The two cells are merging and the track seems to veer N\NW so hopefully if they make land the heat will feed them into a monster and the majority of Kent should see something. (it's happened many times before)

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Lewis Newbie

Lewis

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted
Thats actually a whitty answer lol.

It's getting more humid here now, but its been strangely pleasent today humidity wise.

I wonder if it's worth staying up and seeing what happens with these MCS's. Only a slight chance they will make it this far, but certianly theres enough fuel for the fire I would have thought.

Any opinions on this?

If im 170 miles north of you and im staying up, i think your more likely to have a better chance than me lol.

good luck

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
Bekka..you just might get your first storm......dont hold me to it though :)

Last time was April 2008 ... If your wrong i'm taking your place on the storm chasing in France trip lol.

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k66yla Contributor

k66yla

Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent.
  • Location: Ashford, Kent.
Posted
hmm why do i have a west-facing room? this happens all the time when they approach from the east! grr.

Thats spooky I was just thinking the same but I'm facing North

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clark3r Community Regular

clark3r

Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing
Posted
Lots of lightning to the South over the Channel now :)

have spotted lighting out to the channel in the far distance here in worthing west sussex

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LeeKay Rookie

LeeKay

Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffordshire. UK 159mtrs ASL
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffordshire. UK 159mtrs ASL
Posted
here in redditch about 10 mins ago i heard rain on the window!

i rushed downstairs and outside and the most massive drop of rain fell on my head and almost soaked the whole of my hair lol! they were the most massive drops of rain i have ever remembered seeing! They fell for 10 seconds :)

Things are developing then. Thanks Loopy D for the report, isolated but potential all the same.

post-3585-1246572067_thumb.png

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
May this be my chance for a storm!

Its been a while now :)

Not warnings from Meto though? :)

I was just about to put that! Why are there no warning's at all?

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