Model Output Discussion

[Snowyowl9]

It looks as though the gfs is now making more of that little trough moving north on Friday and the thundery rain is further west to, would not surprise me if that trend continues and brings some very heavy rain to many part of central and eastern England in picticular!

I doubt it`ll come that far west,GFS 6z tends to to that.

Looks a very good run to me meaning mostly lots of dry settled weather to come from tomorrow in the west anyway.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

[ANYWEATHER]

I doubt it`ll come that far west,GFS 6z tends to to that.

Looks a very good run to me meaning mostly lots of dry settled weather to come from tomorrow in the west anyway.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Maybe, Ecm shows more unsettled conditions for about the same timeframe...

[mushymanrob]

indeed it does look like a thundery shortwave will move up the eastern side/north sea northwards after which the atlantic/azh theme introduces itself into next week. there could be some very nice, pleasant days, better in the sunnier south and east, but the north and west look likely to be plagued by cloud. one or two hints that we just might pick up a southerly feed which would be welcome before summer ends. (though im still not expecting 3+ consecutive days of 25c+ )

the ecm are having none of it though, with the azh staying out to our west and a scandi trough dominating leaving us in cool, changeable regime. i think the ecm might well be the form horse, the shortwave heading north will introduce alot of energy/warmth/humidity to mix with north atlantic pm airmass resulting on a large depression over scandi.

erm...

when i click on a piccy to view it, its loads ok, but when i click 'back' to return to the post, i get taken back to the top of the page...not the post the image was posted on

Edited August 4, 2009 by mushymanrob

[Bottesford]

when i click on a piccy to view it, its loads ok, but when i click 'back' to return to the post, i get taken back to the top of the page...not the post the image was posted on

Don't press the back button - just click the close button at bottom of pic - or even easier just click anywhere outside the image and it'll go away.

Hope that helps!

[William of Walworth]

Thank you Bottesford, I've been puzzled by that glitch for ages ....

[mushymanrob]

Don't press the back button - just click the close button at bottom of pic - or even easier just click anywhere outside the image and it'll go away.

Hope that helps!

yay! thanks

[Snowyowl9]

ECM must be the poorest out of the runs today even sister model GEM is showing the low further north.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rgem1681.gif

[tinybill]

looking it might get a bit hot next week!!

Edited August 4, 2009 by tinybill

[Gavin P]

As ever with Azores High sitting to the south or west, the question is about whether we get any cloud associated with the high. You look at that chart and on the face of it it looks great, but you just never know whether a load of anticyclonic gloom is gonna be trapped underneath it.

Anyway, GFS 12z on its way out.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

As long as its warm Gavin, its a start. Warm and dry for me is much better than average and wet.

Both scenarios have cloud, but at least there would be an improvement

[mushymanrob]

so far (t168) the azh on this run doesnt want to leave 'home', unlike the 06z where the centre migrated eastwards over us...

[Snowyowl9]

This run is just good enough for what I want.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1921.png

[chionomaniac]

so far (t168) the azh on this run doesnt want to leave 'home', unlike the 06z where the centre migrated eastwards over us...

Looks like a summertime Azores High toppler!

[Alex95]

It might be me being thick but on the latest GFS run does that thundery low over France, Belgium and later Holland just fizzle out after Friday/Saturday? If it does I'd say it's a good sigh for the UK at least since this low could push north into the north sea, dragging in a very cool north/northeasterly wind and heavy rain if it doesn't disappear. I'm going to Belgium though on Thursday so it doesn't matter too much to me, though a northerly may affect the weather there too if it was potent.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the GFS 12Z only supports a brief Azores High toppler, and for some parts it wouldn't be particularly sunny, with the high over Britain not lasting long enough to enable the frontal cloud progged within the high to break up.

However about 30-50% of the GEFS ensembles have the Azores ridge coming further north and looking stronger, similar to the GFS 06Z. Nothing especially prolonged, but the chance of a good few days or so of warm/hot, dry and sunny weather for most of the country is still very much alive. The ECMWF 12Z will be interesting to see because the 00Z moved away from that scenario.

[Derp Patrol]

Just asking, what time does the ECM 12Z usually come out? thanks in advance!

[snowmadchrisuk]

I wouldn't take any notice of the 12z gfs removing fridays heavy thundery showers .. The ensembles are having none of it .. Some of fridays precepitation ensemble members indeed go off the charts . Azores high likely after 11th but not sure how far north it can get due to constant low pressure to the north sending it all back south.

[J10]

This run is just good enough for what I want.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Some of the dryest ensembles for some time too (for Wales).

[Snowyowl9]

Some of the dryest ensembles for some time too (for Wales).

Good

UKMO is also an improvement.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

More rain in this region in the early hours:

[Frosty.]

High Pressure features strongly on the latest 12z model runs especially across the southern half of the uk but occasionally ridging further north into scotland too. A big improvement compared to yesterday with any heavy rain not likely to be as widespread as recent runs suggested and the south east is favoured for any significant rain later this week/weekend but with a ridge extending across it should be dry and warm in most areas. Next week shows high pressure mostly across the south and low pressure to the north/north west of the uk so any rain is most likely in scotland by then.

[Derp Patrol]

GFS 12Z has high pressure dominating for the next 10-12 days, with the high centered over the UK early next week. Just a question as to how much cloud there will be, hopefully not a lot, because I would love to enjoy at least a few more sunny days this summer, something that has been lacking so far :winky:

[The PIT]

Typical go back to work and it could well be the best weather of the summer. Still looking good at the moment.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I've booked next Friday off on the off chance of a good day.

As you say, still looking alrighty on the 00z.

[William of Walworth]

Prospects looking pretty good now for us in Dorset this weekend, latest GFS seems to remove any real risk of rain that far West from Thursday onwards. Significant improvements .

I'd take cloudy dry and warm over sunshine and downpours, but we may get reasonable sunshine amounts at the w/e anyway.

In my opinion, most of the latest signals do not support this (maybe the ensembles have yet to catch up with the synoptics?) :

snowmadchrisUK : I wouldn't take any notice of the 12z gfs removing fridays heavy thundery showers .. The ensembles are having none of it .. Some of fridays precepitation ensemble members indeed go off the charts . Azores high likely after 11th but not sure how far north it can get due to constant low pressure to the north sending it all back south.

and support this :

Frosty09 :

High Pressure features strongly on the latest 12z model runs especially across the southern half of the uk but occasionally ridging further north into scotland too. A big improvement compared to yesterday with any heavy rain not likely to be as widespread as recent runs suggested and the south east is favoured for any significant rain later this week/weekend but with a ridge extending across it should be dry and warm in most areas.

BBC breakfast forecast this morning, presumably reflecting MetO output, is already downgrading rain totals ....

Edited August 5, 2009 by William of Walworth