Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

Seems that most of us (myself included) were taken in by the repeated progs of pronounced ridges from the Azores High. A pretty mundane week of weather ahead by the looks of the latest outputs- I think southern areas should be mainly dry but with only average temperatures and sunshine amounts, with frontal systems frequently making inroads even to southern areas. Northern areas probably close to average in all three departments- while early and late in the week look cloudier as well as wetter in the north, midweek looks like a case of sunshine and showers in the north, relatively dry but cloudy in the south.

Next weekend looks less and less likely to be sunny or dry as far as I can see, though I think the GFS 18Z is overdoing that low, like it often does.

[Tucco]

GFS/UKMO produce a more significant low than ECM from the 00z runs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png

ECM develops the low intenstly once it is East past the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

The end of the week looks unsettled for North at least but how windy and wet is a good few runs away yet.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Sunday folks. Most of this week will see the uk sitting between the Azores high to the south and the Icelandic lows to the north!This basically means a "westerly" airflow more unsettled to the north ,more settled conditions to the south. Even though we will be seeing a Westerly airflow, it wont be the fresh, cool airmass, it looks as though a lot of warm ,moist air will be circulating around the azores high, so even though southern and southeastern counties will see a lot of dry, cloudy weather, where the cloud does break it could turn out to be locally hot in one or two places, further north and west its more a case of some rain at times, the end of the week come Thurs sees a deep low winding itself towards the UK, one to keep our eyes on, gfs has it more of a "potent" feature than the ecm at this stage, but "could" scupper any outdoor activities by next weekend? ummmmgh!

[mushymanrob]

. Early thoughts are 'mild' autumn, chance of Indian summer conditions.

BFTP

i have no doubt that a prolonged period of settled weather WILL become established this autumn, it would be very unusual if it remained unsettled through to december! the only question is 'when'. this would give indian summer conditions IF its a late settlement, into october.

Seems that most of us (myself included) were taken in by the repeated progs of pronounced ridges from the Azores High.

after all these years of watching the gfs in fi, we still believe the fi tease! the gfs tends to do this all summer, suggest high pressure and settled weather which only rarely ever becomes realtime.

strong odds on now that the rest of summer will be 'average' at best. at least it shouldnt be as wet as july and will be pleasant. but those of us who like to sit outdoors of an evening, drinking or having a bbq, look like being bitterly disappointed as only the southeast does it look like conditions might prevail .

roll on next may.

[Gavin P]

Hi Ga and Chim

Gav I have early thoughts but delaying as watching ENSO. Early thoughts are 'mild' autumn, chance of Indian summer conditions.

Ch, I don't think it will be a train of LPs but ceratinly one or two autumnal ones both in depth and temp.

BFTP

Thanks mate.

[Nick.F]

Temperatures remaining about average in the north but a bit above in the south meaning high summer 2009 mid July - mid August (I usually class this period as high summer as it is cumulatively usually the warmest 4 week period of the year and the period when you normally expect to see highest temperature of the year) will go down as particularly unexceptional temperature wise with no recordings above 28 degrees.

I presume you mean locally to yourself? We have already surpassed 28 degrees this week.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the models are really catching onto the deep LP idea come mid month. That will be a feature and most of the UK will be directly affected by it, quite autumnal.

Mushy I'm thinking a very nice late Sept into October mate.

BFTP

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Following a few days of more settled weather, at least for southern UK, it looks like a return to the July pattern may be coming with low pressure over Scandinavia and sitting in the NE atlantic to the NW of the UK and a downstream ridge away over central and eastern europe. The previous hints of a high pressure pattern near and over the UK have been slowly inched out from a few days ago.

Towards mid august we may well be seeing the occasional sunshine and lots of heavy showers regime once more.

[damianslaw]

I presume you mean locally to yourself? We have already surpassed 28 degrees this week.

Yes I meant to say in NW England as a whole somewhere would normally expect to hit 28 degrees in the NW at some point in an average year between mid July and mid August. Incidentally what was the highest temperature recorded this week, I didn't note it down was it 28 degrees or 29?

[Derp Patrol]

Yes, the period of high summer usually bings at least one spell of very warm/hot weather.. in an average year we usually surpass 30C at least once in the period of high summer down here. Well the charts don't look inspiring, but at least it is looking ok down here for the next week, with largely sunny days with a few clouds and temperatures 23C-25C. After that it looks very autumnal.. well at least by then I will be basking in sunshine in the med

[chapmanslade]

The 12z continues the misery

Extraordinary really the way it just vanishes the high pressure that was looking odds on for late this week.

The azores high proves weaker than first thought and doesn't even extend it's ridge over the far west now.

All and all very depressing but c'est la vie......

I'm not singling anybody out but this is an example of the posts from last weekend predicting more doom, and the reality has been a fantastic weekend here. No wind, 23C and plenty of sun which is virtually a perfect summers day.

Once again a lot of contradiction between model runs / ensembles even at close range meaning choosing a chart to justify your argument is very easy but largely pointless. I think the only certainty is higher pressure to the south, lower to the north and occasional depressions running close to Scotland. This is resulting in generally average / nice summer days in the south with a fair bit of cloud on occasions, but more rain for the north. Certainly better than most of July.

Edited August 9, 2009 by chapmanslade

[Moisty]

It does semm to be an ok week here in the south which we would have been happy with in 2007 and 2008 but I would love to see a cloudless blue sky all day here inland, I cant recall one of those since 2006, on the good days there has always been some cumulus or high cloud around

[chapmanslade]

GFS 06z shows subtle changes which result in a hot week after next weekend and a high pressure reload after a plume event. But then it will probably be a northerly on the next run so I won't take up server space with a chart !

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

Where did this front pop up from, tuesday looking unsettled now too

[kippure]

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack1a.gif

Where did this front pop up from, tuesday looking unsettled now too

Pressure will be high. Nothing much but some drizzle out of that.

[The PIT]

Well this is going to be the best week possibly but even then drizzle around. After that FI suggests unsettled with a nearly possible autumn storm for Scotland. ECM not out yet so it'll be interesting what that says.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It looks like parts of the Midlands, East Anglia and south-east England have a week of predominantly dry sunny weather to come, although tomorrow will have a fair amount of cloud and a little rain- perhaps some cloud about on Tuesday from the front.

Across Scotland and Ireland the observation "it will be a better week than most of July" will only hold true for those who prefer persistent cloud cover and steady moderate/light rain to sunshine and showers. Because, barring a brighter day on Wednesday, it looks like fronts will keep dull wet weather going across Scotland for almost the entire week- eastern areas perhaps getting a few drier and perhaps brighter slots, but western Scotland and Ireland looks set to be pretty "driech". The same applies to a lesser extent to northern England, Wales and south-west England, though there will be more in the way of drier brighter slots in those regions.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the week ahead, thursday appears to be the best day nationwide under a ridge but this is soon followed by low pressure moving eastwards off the atlantic to ruin the weekend, beyond that, the ecm 12z shows the following week settling down nicely with high pressure becoming established to the east/south east of the uk but the gfs is much more progressive during the T+240 timeframe with a ridge being pushed away by advancing low pressure to ruin another weekend. The closer timeframe shows a weak ridge across the south for most of this coming week but more unsettled towards the north, temps look just above average in southern england and rather warm in the south east compared to average in the north and maybe slightly below average in the far north where the strongest winds will occur from time to time.

[J10]

A couple of days ago, my thoughts for this coming week were for Dry, bright and warm, and this sums it up, perhaps more in the way of general rain, tomorrow, but not much after that, some sunshine as well at times, but amounts are very much uncertain.

[Eugene]

You really have to ask yourself what has happened to british summers, what was looking like a nice HP spell is now nothing away from the far south with pressure lower and fronts moving across us from the west as HP is too far southwest then we get this for next weekend

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png

[Nick.F]

Yes I meant to say in NW England as a whole somewhere would normally expect to hit 28 degrees in the NW at some point in an average year between mid July and mid August. Incidentally what was the highest temperature recorded this week, I didn't note it down was it 28 degrees or 29?

Unofficially local to here, 29.7 on the 6th - warmest day of the year, here at least.

Edited August 10, 2009 by Nick.F

[mushymanrob]

this week is promising pleanty of pleasant, warm, predominantly dry weather especially in the south/eastern and central areas. a very normal, average, august week .... a week of typical summers weather.

I presume you mean locally to yourself? We have already surpassed 28 degrees this week.

you were lucky enough to be on the right side of last weeks troublesome cold front, most of the country didnt enjoy the warmth/heat the southeastern extremities did. i was unlucky enough to be under that front for most of the week along with its deluges.

[ANYWEATHER]

Not a bad few days to come for southern Britain more unsettled in the North, but did think I might get the tent out this coming weekend ,but as been hinted for some time now, a very deep and unseasonable low influencing the whole of the UK as early as Friday,and the models if anything have increased the potency of that low....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models really picking up now on how deep the LPs are [autumnal like] to affect most of the UK, as expected. Incredible how far south the jet is projected to run.

BFTP

Edited August 10, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

The models really picking up now on how deep the LPs are [autumnal like] to affect most of the UK, as expected. Incredible how far south the jet is projected to run.

BFTP

Sorry BFTP, I've run through the models out to T180 and, (for what little jet there is), it's generally pretty amplified and generally no further south than 60°, which I wouldn't have thought is that remarkable ? And WRT to the depression progged for the back end of this week, 6z already starting the normal GFS process of reducing intensity of depressions as they get nearer. As Mushy has said above, not a bad week coming up (for much of Southern/Eastern UK anyway) and beyond that, all rather messy at present, so difficult to draw any real conclusions (as likely to be settled as autumnal, at least in my humble opinion).