Model Output Discussion

[Iceni]

Which is why that "BBQ Summer" thing was a nonsense - a pointless statement.

(Mutter, mutter - also why the human cause of the Global Warming phenomenon is indeterminable - there are not enough deterministic records over a long enough period of time and I am talking millennia here, to definitively indicate a human cause over natural cycles. Even tho I admit that Average Global temps may have risen. Mutter, Mutter rant over,...)

Agree with predictions of BBQ summer but disagree about your reasons to doubt MGW because we don't have records of sufficient longevity — we do have the records... The evidence (lots of it) is in the ice cores from the Antarctic which suggest there has never been so much carbon in the atmosphere for at least 500,000 years and since industrialization has climbed steadily.

[William of Walworth]

Even more uncertainty than normal it seems, for what's going to happen after the weekend and next week. I couldn't begin to guess right now what our chances are of some more pleasantness for the w/e of the 21/23 -- my current selfish point of interest.

I suppose it's always too soon to say that far ahead, but if GP and chion are both in an uncertain mood then I guess the non experts will be even less willing to take a punt ....

[Bristawl Si]

Agree with predictions of BBQ summer but disagree about your reasons to doubt MGW because we don't have records of sufficient longevity — we do have the records... The evidence (lots of it) is in the ice cores from the Antarctic which suggest there has never been so much carbon in the atmosphere for at least 500,000 years and since industrialization has climbed steadily.

Isn't the clue in the word "Global"? The antarctic and arctic, for that matter, are only part of the globe. There are other vast areas of the globe where weather/climate hasn't really changed over the years. Simple view, i know, but then i'm a simple man!

[William of Walworth]

Latest from the Met Office (just checked their written forecast this time, not synoptics) seems pretty pessimistic and unsettled for everywhere (outside the SE) throughout next week and into next weekend.

Any hopes of this altering, people?

[SnowJoke]

Im guessing while the jetstreams displaced, gone very awol this year for summer. Theres probably not much hope of dry, hot summery weather. All the heat will be kept south over europe, so expect to languish in rainy murk and showery outbreaks until the jet finishes its holiday and buggers off back where it's supposed to be at this time of year.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Latest from the Met Office (just checked their written forecast this time, not synoptics) seems pretty pessimistic and unsettled for everywhere (outside the SE) throughout next week and into next weekend.

Any hopes of this altering, people?

There is an outside chance of high pressure establishing to the east bringing a spell of southerlies early next week, similar to the first week of August (though even that turned out a damp squib for some). However broadly speaking I agree with the Met Office here.

[mushymanrob]

There is an outside chance of high pressure establishing to the east bringing a spell of southerlies early next week, similar to the first week of August (though even that turned out a damp squib for some). However broadly speaking I agree with the Met Office here.

aw no ..... i was kinda getting used to the idea of having 3 nice DRY days early next week with some heat and sun... the gfs is being quite persistent in this set up, so i was beginning to believe it!

[Nick.F]

Agree with predictions of BBQ summer but disagree about your reasons to doubt MGW because we don't have records of sufficient longevity — we do have the records... The evidence (lots of it) is in the ice cores from the Antarctic which suggest there has never been so much carbon in the atmosphere for at least 500,000 years and since industrialization has climbed steadily.

Even 500,000 years is short in the life of the earth.

[William of Walworth]

Well I'm going to have to employ my 'sit back and wait for a few days in the faint hope that prospects improve in time for late next week'

It's as good as any other response when current runs are so indifferent to poor. And rationally speaking as well, there's still enough time for an upturn by the w/e of the 21-23.

The same amount of time ahead of the weekend just gone, signs for the summery weekend that we've had were still far less clear at that point .....

Come on FI! Pop up with some candy .....

[damianslaw]

Forum is very quiet at the moment with just a small handfall of posts today - suggestive that the weather is caught in one of those 'dull' periods with nothing really exciting on the horizon - could it be because the atlantic is ruling the roost and we have very very traditional synoptics at present which doesn't make for very interesting forecasting?

I was never keen on the idea of anything more than temporary ridging of the azores high building. The atlantic is very active at present and the jet seems reluctant to shift in position hence any temporary ridging is always going to be a weak affair under such circumstances and the SE will always be the area most likely to receive its benefits.

As for us in the NW the outlook is a poor one indeed but have to say nothing than unusual for August (a month a never rate here in the NW). Friday and Saturday have potential washout markedall over them and Sunday although brighter is looking very fresh with a cool NW wind and showers.

Next week the unsettled weather looks like it is going to continue. We are at a pivotal point in the summer and the year as a whole. In terms of summer we are at the tipping point where sustained warm settled weather becomes more and more less likely and in terms of the year when rainfall becomes much more prevalent - why? because the atlantic traditionally begins to stir in earnest around mid August, yes September can be pleasant but we are entering generallt the more unsettled disturbed half of the year (mid Aug - mid Feb). Sorry to sound doomcast but as we approach late August theres always that horrid feeling of well thats that for another year.. just like you get in late Feb.

[swilliam]

Agree with predictions of BBQ summer but disagree about your reasons to doubt MGW because we don't have records of sufficient longevity — we do have the records... The evidence (lots of it) is in the ice cores from the Antarctic which suggest there has never been so much carbon in the atmosphere for at least 500,000 years and since industrialization has climbed steadily.

No one is disputing that the CO2 levels are high at the moment and that possibly this may be man-made. But in the period you mention the earth as been much warmer at times without high CO2 levels (they always follow as the gas is emitted from the oceans as they warm). Also it is clear that the warming has occurred over the very short period of the last forty years (but not the 30 before when CO2 was rapidly increasing). I think as scientist to claim a proven cause and effect is impossible - therefore for me AGW is at most speculation.

Returning to the models I am off to Cornwall for the next two weeks. For me the general prognosis of LPs developing in the Atlantic (at a fairly southerly latitude) and then moving NE is fine. This should ensure that we have some fine days (I always assume it is going to rain - it is question of how much) and in addition we should have reasonable surf. What is not required at the moment is any stalling LPs and this currently looks unlikely. The LP progged for next week looks very favourable on GFS - mostly dry but generating some nice swells.

Cheers

Stewart

Edited August 12, 2009 by swilliam

[Frosty.]

Latest from the Met Office (just checked their written forecast this time, not synoptics) seems pretty pessimistic and unsettled for everywhere (outside the SE) throughout next week and into next weekend.

Any hopes of this altering, people?

Doubt it, the only good news from the models in the short term is that this weekend's low looks further north than has been indicated recently so southern britain should be drier and brighter but scotland looks like being very wet, especially further north and with strong NE'ly winds on sunday..yuck. Next week should improve briefly but sadly it looks like turning unsettled everywhere by midweek onwards...the south east might be the only exception, as you mentioned.

[mountain shadow]

Dire Summer in the North West, relentles rain and cloud.

This weekend looks dreadful and even looking further ahead to next week, looks same old, same old.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1921.gif

I refuse to believe this is a 'normal' summer as some are saying. Something has happened over the last three/four years to cause this change to wetter summers, anybody care to tell me the main driver?

[snowmadchrisuk]

Don't know what to make with gfs at the moment , It has been performing quite badly on tropical depression two as has ukmet. Obviously If these tropical systems travel north eastwards it has an impact on our setup . Best forecast at the minute for the next 5 days would be continuing unsettled in the north and west with showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds at times in the far north west. Remaining more settled in the south with showers few and far between although it may get rather cloudy at times especially so in the north midlands. Temps ranging from 24 at times in the south to 12-16 in the north and west.

A little nip in the air tonight which reminds me that winter is not that far away . Although I do worry that if the Jet finally goes north as we head towards winter that it would ruin our snow chances , although it would probably mean dry and frosty over christmas which alot of people will be happy with . If I was a betting man i'd go for a very cold and snowy late winter mid Jan/feb/march.

Chris

[Thundery wintry showers]

Overall this summer is proving to be one of those where the "return of the westerlies" comes later than usual, giving frequent blocked patterns during June, only for the Atlantic to slowly kick into gear during early July and then persist without a break for much of the rest of the summer. There were a large number of such summers in the 1960s and early 1970s. 1986, 1988, 1992 and 1993 also featured that kind of pattern.

However, the westerlies of July this year were pretty unusual for the proportion of convective rainfall that they brought, resulting in exceptional wetness but also close to average sunshine, so we had plenty of posts about- whether whining about the rain or looking forward to some convective storms. The Atlantic weather so far this August has been rather more mundane, as is well illustrated by the lack of recent posts.

It should be dry and sunny for many places tomorrow, but often wet and cloudy over the weekend. There is potential for something of interest next week, with high pressure attempting to hang around for a bit to the east, which on the GFS comes close to delivering a Spanish plume, and keeps the weather dry and sunny for most for a few days with temperatures widely into the mid 20s, but ECMWF is being rather more progressive about it.

[Frosty.]

It looks like Scotland could see some flooding this weekend with 60-80mm possible by sat night and the risk lasting through sunday, 2 lows being responsible following a similar track once tomorrow's ridge has subsided by friday am. The southern half of the uk is looking much better than has been hinted at in the last few days and it should stay dry, warm and bright in most of england and wales while scotland gets an absolute soaking.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well, the 00z GFS offers some hope next week of at least some drier weather. Low 20's for max temps in general for England as well. So could be a similar story to last weekend.

Having tomorrow off, i've been having an interest in the weather for that day specifically.

All week, its been light rain, to moderate rain, to light rain, to heavy rain when following the forecast.

This morning, things look like becoming a bit clearer. GFS showing some very light rain during the day, but no sign of anything heavy. GMTV, BBC Online and METO look like going for a dry day, sunny spells and max of about 21oC for here.

In the mid to longer term, GFS is still struggling to pick up a pattern I feel. No real confidence in Air Pressue, which shows some unpredictability in terms of where systems will be placed.

Edited August 13, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[mushymanrob]

There is potential for something of interest next week, with high pressure attempting to hang around for a bit to the east, which on the GFS comes close to delivering a Spanish plume, and keeps the weather dry and sunny for most for a few days with temperatures widely into the mid 20s, but ECMWF is being rather more progressive about it.

there seems precious little chance now of that potential plume as the gfs joins the others in NOT predicting it. a couple of nice days early next week prior to the return of the rain by midweek looks pretty certain.

lets face it .... summer IS over.

[Frosty.]

It looks like most if not all the weather action will be across Scotland / N.Ireland on fri/sat with heavy rain and risk of local flooding but further south it should be drier, brighter and warm although cumbria/northumberland will have some rain for a time on friday and there could be some showery rain in the south-east on saturday night. The ukmo 00z shows a nice ridge next tuesday but low pressure in the atlantic seems likely to bring unsettled weather across the whole of the uk by the middle to late part of next week. The gfs 00z shows highish pressure across the south/south east for most of next week with low pressure to the west/north west.

Edited August 13, 2009 by Frosty039

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interesting for Friday as well is the rise in 850hpa. It could feel quite muggy.

[Frosty.]

Better news from the ECMWF 00z next week, beyond monday it shows pressure building to the south and east which may keep most of england & wales, especially the south-east fine and warm, even very warm (similar to today with 25c or slightly higher). Most of the unsettled weather looks confined to the north/north west on the latest ecm, occasionally the unsettled weather makes inroads SE'wards but the higher pressure then bulges north from france keeping the bulk of the bad weather across NW Scotland. Next week might turn out better than expected although it's finely balanced.

[William of Walworth]

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1921.gif

This chart for next Friday (21st) is presumably both an outlier and out of date by now -- as well as being in FI! -- but as we'll be in the SW (Devon) next week, we could do a lot worse if that or something like it came off .... my best hopes would lie with a N/S divide ....

Not completely without hope of avoiding a SW washout next weekend anyway .... but there'll be plenty more twists and turns to come no doubt.

Edited August 13, 2009 by William of Walworth

[snowingman]

Looks like a complete washout for scotland and northern ireland... fully expect upto 3 inches of rain in next 72 hours!!....the summer continues further south.. incredible the difference a few hundred miles can make to weather...

For us northerners.. charts paint a miserable picture for the rest of August.. the rubbish summer theme continues.. and the number of rain days keeps mounting up

[MR EXTREMES]

firstly i predict summer 2010 will be a bbq summer it will be slightly above average rainfall and above average temps with 30c being reached with no repeat of 2006 2007 and 2008 and 2009 lol:crazy:

no all jokes aside,

i dont think here in southern england its been worse than last summer in respect of rainfall its been fairly dry locally but its been pretty coolish and lacking in totally sunny days cloudy but dry sums it all up.

as for the outlook its not good to see the alantic kickin again now it would seem maybe el nino is finally making its mark now but i hope im wrong.

even so i dont think the up and coming unsettled spell will be cool and wet i expect southern england will fair better than the rest of the uk with some warmer interludes but also some heavy maybe thundery rain which i wont complain about.

but over all pretty average seems like to continue for most.

Edited August 13, 2009 by badboy657

[Birkhill saints]

Looks like a complete washout for scotland and northern ireland... fully expect upto 3 inches of rain in next 72 hours!!....the summer continues further south.. incredible the difference a few hundred miles can make to weather...

For us northerners.. charts paint a miserable picture for the rest of August.. the rubbish summer theme continues.. and the number of rain days keeps mounting up

That is why a scottish weather forum would be an addition to the net weather service.The diffrence between shetland and kent is the same as kent and the south of france .Anyway looking drab and dreich oor the weekend up here .