Model Output Discussion

[mushymanrob]

well the gfs keeps its FI eyecandy in place, suggesting a pretty extended warm/hot spell ..... ill believe it when i see it.

[Eugene]

GFS ensembles unfortunately trending towards an unsettled cool northwesterly flow for mid next week now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[shuggee]

Looking at the ensemble mean for late Wednesday afternoon next week, it's looking pleasantly settled and warm for the majority

[mushymanrob]

Looking at the ensemble mean for late Wednesday afternoon next week, it's looking pleasantly settled and warm for the majority

really?...

a brisk northwesterly wont be that warm surely, and i expect theres some frontal /trough/showery acitivity in there too for the northeast/ west facing coasts. might be pleasant in the southwest though. hopefully that high will migrate eastwards, but somehow i doubt it will.

Edited August 6, 2009 by mushymanrob

[johnholmes]

I'm away tomorrow so will do my lrf update some time this evening.

I have to say that the major synoptic 'players' are all fairly consistent with the idea of our weather settling down within a week or so and possibly for 7-10 days thereafter.

More later.

[Frosty.]

GFS ensembles unfortunately trending towards an unsettled cool northwesterly flow for mid next week now.

Soon followed by a big anticyclone settling down slap bang over the uk and slowly transferring eastwards which opens the door to a hot SE'ly which is shown on the GFS 06z. Early next week has been looking a bit mixed and fresher on recent model runs but it still looks to me as though it will be followed by an increasingly warm/hot settled spell which will eventually end in a thundery breakdown.

[Tucco]

[quote

Temps pretty decent for next week:

[Tucco]

Oh dear, I was too focused on Sern half of the UK and B'ham, I do apologise

It does look good for those away from the NW flow. Could be several days of 25C+ for the South. Here think I'm going going to struggle to reach 20C but high teens,dry with sunny spell is perfect for me.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[Snowyowl9]

Looks fine for the next few days at least,could be a mini record of 5 dry days this summer.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm721.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn781.png

[Jezzer]

Michael Fish's forecast looking very positive for the south, especially towards the end of next week! :lol:

[Snowyowl9]

It looks to me after this mini blip early next week with weakening fronts with cloud coming into the south and west,probably just bringing cloud/light patchy rain or drizzle that it will settle down with HP with what ECM shows now,GFS shows little if any rain.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1681.gif

[johnholmes]

lrf out and link below-sorry no charts-in a rush, packing

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/47443-lrf-or-attempting-them/page__st__170__gopid__1576758&

[johnholmes]

just had a look at the 18z run from GFS, converted into the 3 hourly totals on NW Extra, and the 'spot' location for me suggests 41mm before it stops tomorrow!

0.6mm so far so its got to start persisting down very soon!

[TonyH]

just had a look at the 18z run from GFS, converted into the 3 hourly totals on NW Extra, and the 'spot' location for me suggests 41mm before it stops tomorrow!

0.6mm so far so its got to start persisting down very soon!

Beware of the radar today John!

90mm plus suggested totals today for parts of the east Midlands are based on anaprop. B)

[johnholmes]

anaprop does not move Tony!

in any case the forecast is from GFS/Extra not the radar

the 12z NMM kept most of it east of here

Edited August 6, 2009 by johnholmes

[TonyH]

anaprop does not move Tony!

in any case the forecast is from GFS/Extra not the radar

the 12z NMM kept most of it east of here

Sorry John but the area with the highest totals- just east of Coventry and into Northants/ Leicestershire- has been an area of static randomised pixels, as discussed by myself and Terminal Moraine in other threads. Church Lawford for example had just 10mm to 1900 today.

I do realise much of the radar is performing well, yet it does have embedded fault areas of anaprop if studied, namely that east of Coventry.

I was merely stating that the NW/MO radars should be treated with caution today.

Edited August 6, 2009 by Tonyh

[Tucco]

NW flow still on the cards early next week, GFS and ECM produces a more unsettled outcome later on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

For true hardcore winter lovers, the end of GFS FI has -10C 850mb air over Greenland with -5C 850mb moving down to Iceland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3842.png

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited August 7, 2009 by Tucco

[ANYWEATHER]

A real "seesaw" of weather coming up in the next week judging by the models! High pressure does help to keep the weather fair especially for the south of the uk, but it does not stop the Atlantic having some play as well. Striking similaraties between the ecm and gfs right out to t168, not often you find that agreement betwwen to models so far out!

[mushymanrob]

well theres no joy in this mornings runs, even the fi eye candy has gone (as expected), mobility, normal, atlantic run weather appears to be the theme with no heat or no prospect of any heat. 'summer' is over and has been since early july :lol:

[Frosty.]

It looks as though the pesimists or should that be realists were correct yesterday urging caution because the models today have backed away almost completely from a prolonged anticyclonic spell, the gfs in particular has undergone a dramatic transformation since yesterday and instead of a hot settled spell it shows unsettled and cooler weather, as does the ecm.

[Tucco]

well theres no joy in this mornings runs, even the fi eye candy has gone (as expected), mobility, normal, atlantic run weather appears to be the theme with no heat or no prospect of any heat. 'summer' is over and has been since early july :lol:

This time next week the models could really telling us that 'summer is over' if FI is to be believed, GFS 06z inline with unsettled end to ECM.

Anyway looks a few nice days for the South of the UK in the short term.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited August 7, 2009 by Tucco

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like an above average spell of summer weather coming next week including this weekened which looks dry and sunny.

Monday still shows some patchy rain coming in,expect there will be much more share of cloud above next week to this weekened.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn784.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2a.gif

[Eugene]

^{Back to something resembling summer(not hard though with how bad its been) in the next 5 days or so though sunday could be showery and monday wet with a front moving through, also as it's a mild southwesterly airstream cloud amounts could be high away from the south and east early to mid next week, it looks like going downhill after the 12/13th with more unsettled atlantic weather.}

^{http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png}

Edited August 7, 2009 by Eugene

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like the ECMWF- the leader in the NOAA model comparison charts- has come up trumps again, with the GFS backing down from its extended high pressure scenario. It does look like the weekend and the middle part of next week will be mostly sunny and dry for southern and eastern parts of England, but the high for midweek next week is increasingly resembling an "Azores toppler" of the sort that was very common during Summer 1998- those can sometimes be as disappointing as 36/48 hour northerlies can be for snow lovers, especially in the north.

However the outlook does genuinely resemble a "normal" British summer now, rather than an outstandingly wet one.

[chapmanslade]

well theres no joy in this mornings runs, even the fi eye candy has gone (as expected), mobility, normal, atlantic run weather appears to be the theme with no heat or no prospect of any heat. 'summer' is over and has been since early july

But then the GFS 12z brings summer back again - come on everybody look at the ensembles - good agreement out to middle of next week then 'white noise' after that - hence one run cannot be used with any degree of accuracy. The ensembles really are good at indicating where FI is.