White Christmas 2009

[Stuart]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-18 19:11:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-19 19:00:00

Synopsis

The GFS today has hinted at the main breakdown of the cold weather to be later than that of recently suggested. It still looks rather marginal for the South but the North may see quite a reasonable chance of snow but the charts could still easily change their output. At the moment a cold day is forecast for the North and cool for the south with the snow risk probably for Central and Northern areas at the moment. Precipitation wont be known properly until closer to the day. The south will be milder than of late but it will still feel rather cold however any precipitation will be more of rain here, though hill sleet or snow couldnt be ruled out. In summary, a slight increase in risk for some areas today with the charts extending the cold a little bit. Wintry precipitation quite likely especially in the North

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Nick L]

It is definitely the best chance of a widespread White Christmas since 2004, will get very interesting over the next few days.

[Paul]

Xmas update now up - still very much in the balance but looking less likely in the south..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[MAF]

Xmas update now up - still very much in the balance but looking less likely in the south..

http://www.netweathe...type=xmas;sess=

:lol: ho hum

Cheers Paul :lol:

[V for Very Cold]

bloody hell - any other year I would have bitten someones hand off being offered a 40% chance of snow this close to xmas - but it's dropped from yesterday, so it's a tad deflating

[Snowyowl9]

GFS shows a possible blizzard on the big day further north on the 6z,upper maybe slightly dodgy but not with that east flow.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn15017.png

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The twenty first forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas in the south, and makes no change to the prospects for northern areas. We currently think Christmas will be generally cold, and there is the chance of snow anywhere, but more probably in the north.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 55% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 35% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

Update 15, 29/11/2009

Update 16, 03/12/2009

Update 17, 06/12/2009

Update 18, 11/12/2009

Update 19, 13/12/2009

Update 20, 17/12/2009

Update 21, 18/12/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Craigers]

Forecast headline

The twenty first forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas in the south, and makes no change to the prospects for northern areas. We currently think Christmas will be generally cold, and there is the chance of snow anywhere, but more probably in the north.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 55% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 35% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

Update 15, 29/11/2009

Update 16, 03/12/2009

Update 17, 06/12/2009

Update 18, 11/12/2009

Update 19, 13/12/2009

Update 20, 17/12/2009

Update 21, 18/12/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

if that happend then my child dream would come true, so yorkshire has a good chance?

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Could it be blizzard conditions for the whole of England on the big day? Quite possibly!

[West Sussex Kate]

im still thinking its all in the balance, a few days ago they weren't really forcasting snow for us here on saturday/sunday/monday and now they are so I think it could all change, I think this cold spell is worse then they first thought. I cant see it going away till mid week, I think that snow Christmas Eve would be really special, so fingers crossed it can hang on!

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

With a likely depression moving in and developing across southern England on xmas day it certainly looks interesting indeed. I note the Met Office forecast indicates they are very unsure at this time whether snow or rain for the south. If it's snow it could mean a real white out for the big day! :lol:

[Mark Bayley]

Now if the 18z came off

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks like SE for white xmas, midlands dry

[Paul]

Looks like it's going to the wire this year, still a lot of uncertainty over the white christmas prospects - latest forecast here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

o no but it will change in the next run

[MR EXTREMES]

looks like SE for white xmas, midlands dry

i dont think the southern half of the uk will have a white christmas,

maybe midlands north 50/50.

but i expect most likely will be from english scottish border north wards.;)

[Thundery wintry showers]

Talking of white Christmasses is tricky as Ian Brown is right regarding the official bookies' definition of a white Christmas- a flake of sleet/snow on Christmas Day regardless of snow cover. For me, though, a real white Christmas has at least 50% snow cover at some point between 9am and midnight, and snowfall is merely a bonus.

It is, indeed, going to the wire. Most of Scotland should have a snow cover on Christmas Day, but with the likelihood of a system spreading NE over England and Wales with warmer air on its southern flank, and possible easterly winds raising temperatures near the east coast, it looks marginal, particularly in the south and near the east coast of England. On the other hand areas on the northern/western flank of any precipitation may well see a top-up of snow cover on Christmas Eve and/or Christmas Day.

Still huge uncertainty but note that the models are often too progressive at bringing milder air in, as the changes in the last few days' runs have illustrated.

[MR EXTREMES]

o no but it will change in the next run

to be honest i think the big 4 models are trending towards a breakdown towards mildish,

i think by thursday we will see a marked change taking place.

[Mondy]

Remember an official white christmas has to be when a snowflake is seen to fall on the London weather roof centre between the hours of 09:00 am on the 25th and 09:00 the 26th.

.. even though it's looking likely snow cover will be evident across much of Scotland & N.England, the above official white xmas is just a nonsense. If it's white up here on Xmas Day (looking very likely) I will officially have a white Xmas - not what happens 500 bloody miles south of here. Pffffffffft :blink:

[keithlucky]

Bold statement from john kettley on radio no snow on xmas day only glasgow has a chance,considering how the met dont like to predict a week ahead he must be very confident of a southerly wet spell of weather on xmas day.

According to country file he eat his words psml.

[Nick L]

I feel sorry for whoever is presenting the Countryfile forecast tonight...

[Alex95]

I feel sorry for whoever is presenting the Countryfile forecast tonight...

Country Tracks forecast already broadcast, north eastern areas most favoured for a white Christmas on this one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsQSqu76kJk&feature=channel

[Nick L]

Country Tracks forecast already broadcast, north eastern areas most favoured for a white Christmas on this one.

http://www.youtube.c...feature=channel

Thanks for that. It smacks of "we aint got a clue" for Christmas Day, rightly so as well.

[Methuselah]

Like the flying arrows...Any Indians about?

[Costa Del Fal]

Thanks for that. It smacks of "we aint got a clue" for Christmas Day, rightly so as well.

Lol you have to laugh when she said rain onc hristmas day when Snow is scattered across the country.