White Christmas 2009

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Xmas day now made it in to FI, on GFS, doesnt show cold, i think that will be general trend, turning slowly milder around 23rd

[Iceberg]

A small go for the Scottish cities looks quite good at those odds, particularly given that this is the last area to go mild and might well get a bit of marginal snow.

An outside chance for London but those odds are pretty good considering the synoptics.

[Weather-history]

Xmas day now made it in to FI, on GFS, doesnt show cold, i think that will be general trend, turning slowly milder around 23rd

At this far out, you are better off looking at the mean pressure chart rather than an individual ensemble.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m16.gif

Edited December 9, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Nick L]

I think this cold spell might be coming too soon for a White Christmas!

[Stuart]

I see some parts may see a white xmas on this run but still in the big lala land

[Edge of the moors]

still managed to get 8/1 just now for a white Christmas for York ( Church Fenton )

After our BBC weatherman, Paul Hudson announcing on Monday that he had got the same, thought the odds might have shortened a little by now....heres hoping !!

[Tom D]

The 06z run looks pretty good.

I think a good idea would be to see how the charts progress that day (ie compare 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z to each other on the same day and the next day). This may help give an idea of a trend.

Of course the current outlook is that there will be a cold snap next week; how long that lasts really makes a difference for prospects of a cold Christmas period. Should this coming cold spell last more than a week I think it's unlikely it'll be cold again before Christmas. Having said that, there's always the possibility that it may last UNTIL Christmas!

[keithlucky]

The 06z run looks pretty good.

I think a good idea would be to see how the charts progress that day (ie compare 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z to each other on the same day and the next day). This may help give an idea of a trend.

Of course the current outlook is that there will be a cold snap next week; how long that lasts really makes a difference for prospects of a cold Christmas period. Should this coming cold spell last more than a week I think it's unlikely it'll be cold again before Christmas. Having said that, there's always the possibility that it may last UNTIL Christmas!

Please please snow xmas eve no mother in law xmas day, what a great xmas.

[Tom D]

Well today's 06z run isn't a good sight for those who placed bets recently, with a wet, windy and mild Christmas Day in this output.

Since I posted yesterday's 06z run we've had 4 mild Christmas Days, but emphasis must be put on the fact that currently next week's forecast is uncertain.

[MarkF]

Here's some optimisim:

Parallel GFS 06z would mean a payout for most places in the UK

[Stuart]

and there go our white xmas on this run

[glasgow-guy]

and there go our white xmas on this run

just one run. ups and downs hey I checked the "will it snow" and this morning i was 45% on for snow on Monday now i am just showing 30% chance but the potential is there fingers crossed everyone

[Weather-history]

Here is the mean pressure chart for Christmas morning, which for me, is what people should be looking at this far out.

Looks like low pressure overall displaced to the south. Seems to be favouring this set-up for the last few runs.

[Iceni]

Well today's 06z run isn't a good sight for those who placed bets recently, with a wet, windy and mild Christmas Day in this output.

Since I posted yesterday's 06z run we've had 4 mild Christmas Days, but emphasis must be put on the fact that currently next week's forecast is uncertain.

This is what i don't understand.

For my area the previous few days will have had nightly frosts, + possible snow cover, + only 7 1/2 hours' daylight — yet on the Christmas Day the minimum temperature's back up to 10/11.0 ° C just before dawn.

How does that work?

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

According to the latest forecast models very cold air from the North East will certainly establish itself across northern Europe. This kind of pattern with high pressure to the east of Scandinavia is the classical severe winter weather scenario seen before in 1963 and the famous 1947 winter! How long the high pressure stays there is the key to the severity of a UK winter. So there is very good reason at this moment in time to give odds on 2-1 that Christmas 2009 will be a snowy one!

[SNOW-MAN2006]

According to the latest forecast models very cold air from the North East will certainly establish itself across northern Europe. This kind of pattern with high pressure to the east of Scandinavia is the classical severe winter weather scenario seen before in 1963 and the famous 1947 winter! How long the high pressure stays there is the key to the severity of a UK winter. So there is very good reason at this moment in time to give odds on 2-1 that Christmas 2009 will be a snowy one!

How can you justify this. The current run does not suggest anything of the wintry stuff at christmas. Yes on previous runs it has but currently it doesnt. Nobody can give more than id say 10% accuracy for what lies in store xmas day. there is 15 days left to go, an eternity in terms of weather forecasting, we still dont no whats guna happen next week yet alone in a fortnights time. And if next weeks weather does come off its guna take something special to keep it here for such a long period of time... something i do not see happening, we are guna be lucky at this rate to have a severe cold spell yet alone one last for more than 10 days..... more like 8-1 to be realistic

SNOW-MAN2006

[suffolkboy_]

How can you justify this. The current run does not suggest anything of the wintry stuff at christmas. Yes on previous runs it has but currently it doesnt. Nobody can give more than id say 10% accuracy for what lies in store xmas day. there is 15 days left to go, an eternity in terms of weather forecasting, we still dont no whats guna happen next week yet alone in a fortnights time. And if next weeks weather does come off its guna take something special to keep it here for such a long period of time... something i do not see happening, we are guna be lucky at this rate to have a severe cold spell yet alone one last for more than 10 days..... more like 8-1 to be realistic :lol:

SNOW-MAN2006

What we do have to remember though is that cold air is very dense, and with the majority of Europe covered in sub-zero air, the Atlantic will have a job to push it out of the way. This sort of set-up, once established, proves very difficult to change in a hurry. This is why people have to remember, even if the charts aren't showing snow in yor area within the reliable timeframe, the potential is still there for days to come.

[Tom D]

According to the latest forecast models very cold air from the North East will certainly establish itself across northern Europe. This kind of pattern with high pressure to the east of Scandinavia is the classical severe winter weather scenario seen before in 1963 and the famous 1947 winter! How long the high pressure stays there is the key to the severity of a UK winter. So there is very good reason at this moment in time to give odds on 2-1 that Christmas 2009 will be a snowy one!

I see you're new to the forum, so we'll let you off for that one

You really shouldn't jump to conclusions at this stage - there is no agreement over the length of time this easterly will hold, with run after run changing and also different models disagreeing.

Not that I wouldn't discourage a wee bet on the whole White Christmas thing

Edited December 10, 2009 by Tommyd1258

[SNOW-MAN2006]

What we do have to remember though is that cold air is very dense, and with the majority of Europe covered in sub-zero air, the Atlantic will have a job to push it out of the way. This sort of set-up, once established, proves very difficult to change in a hurry. This is why people have to remember, even if the charts aren't showing snow in yor area within the reliable timeframe, the potential is still there for days to come.

Correct Europe does have alot of dense cold air, but that isnt covering the UK. It may or may not seep into the uk, if it does spot on widspread snow but if it doesnt it will be very very marginal. And therefore with us being on the boundary of such cold it can easily go out as quick as it comes in all it takes is for the high and low pressure to move by a couple of hundered miles and were back to square one... We cant possibly see what is guna be in store for xmas until atleast another 7 days or so ... especially with so much oppurunity out there atm.

Edited December 10, 2009 by SNOW-MAN2006

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Seriously I'm not really saying that a 1963 or 1947 will happen this winter. If you look at the temperature profiles across the northern hemisphere at this time, there are two definite larger cold air cells this year than in many recent years. The Siberian cell is huge extending right across the whole of Russia and into China while the north American cell covers the whole of Canada and reaching northern USA (causing the snowstorms there at the moment). A snowy Christmas is more likely to happen than not. I say 50-50 at this time. But it all depends upon the Scandinavian High staying put.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Seriously I'm not really saying that a 1963 or 1947 will happen this winter. If you look at the temperature profiles across the northern hemisphere at this time, there are two definite larger cold air cells this year than in many recent years. The Siberian cell is huge extending right across the whole of Russia and into China while the north American cell covers the whole of Canada and reaching northern USA (causing the snowstorms there at the moment). A snowy Christmas is more likely to happen than not. I say 50-50 at this time. But it all depends upon the Scandinavian High staying put.

Well yes your correct in saying its 50 - 50 its winter its either warm or cold... and seeming as the GFS clearly doesnt know what it wants to happen next week there is a 50-50 chance of a heat wave too!

[Guest]

Looks like we are going to have a bit of a cold spell just before Christmas but at the last minute virtually temps will rise a little in the SE leaving us bereft, though many a slip twixt lip and cup.

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast now online - white christmas potential isn't diminishing but it's all about the timing of the cold shots!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Thunder Snow]

Looking at the 18z not much luck for xmas.

Edited December 10, 2009 by Thunder Snow

[Tom D]

Looking at the 18z not much look for xmas.

I'd ignore that beyond +192, the evolution is very poor (never is very good at that range).

If you look up to +180, which is a week before Christmas, there's a good chance for a 'reload' from a couple of low pressure systems to our north, whilst the Greenland high only shows minor signs of getting weaker.