White Christmas 2009

[Geordiesnow]

What i dont understand is why do the charts go out that far??

Too see any longer term trends but i feel for most us on here, we should only take them as a little bit of fun if nothing else. I suppose the charts for xmas day itself will have every set up in the book before finally deciding that a Bartlett high will dominate xmas day leaving us wishing for snow very disappointed.

[Stuart]

40% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-10-11 17:25:00

Next Forecast: 2009-10-18 18:00:00

Synopsis

After the fantastic synoptics of last week, this weeks charts have slipped away from this but still seem keen to show a cold airflow over the UK at times but much more marginal especially in the South. With LOW pressure in control, unsettled conditions would prevail. The positioning of LOW pressure is crucial to whether they bring in the cold airflow we need. Much of the UK should see ideal amounts of precipitation though more showery under the colder airflows perhaps. With quite a changeable forecast currently expected for the christmas period, temperatures will reflect this with the overall feel being fairly cool.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The seventh forecast update for

Christmas 2009

increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas. We currently think the UK may be covered by a colder airstream bringing the possibility of snow in places. Northern coastal counties may the have best chance of seeing some snowfall

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 6, 14/10/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

Edited October 15, 2009 by Stuart

[valiant]

This time last year, London had its first October snow since 1934 and this set off media/betting frenzy on a White Christmas.

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/news/18228180/White+Christmas+Odds+Fall+After+First+October+London+Snow+In+Seventy+Years.html

I admit to making a few pennies on Betfair by taking bets at 6/1 just after the cold snap - and then covering myself by backing a white Christmas at 15/1 during the warm spell in November. A profit made 6 weeks before the day itself, which I seem to recall was cold but dry.

More October snow please .....

[Methuselah]

This time last year, London had its first October snow since 1934 and this set off media/betting frenzy on a White Christmas.

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/news/18228180/White+Christmas+Odds+Fall+After+First+October+London+Snow+In+Seventy+Years.html

I admit to making a few pennies on Betfair by taking bets at 6/1 just after the cold snap - and then covering myself by backing a white Christmas at 15/1 during the warm spell in November. A profit made 6 weeks before the day itself, which I seem to recall was cold but dry.

More October snow please .....

Indeed Valiant. You make a very valid point:

Statistically, we should get a White Xmas one-year-in-tennish...Now, I'm pretty sure that at some point (in most Novembers) bookies are offering odd of > 15-1, on the back a one-day mild spell??

If I ever win a million quid, I think I'll put an annual bet on a 'white one' when the odds are suitably ridiculous!

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The eighth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 slightly decreases the forecast probability of a white Christmas, but still suggests a higher than average probability of the UK being covered by a cold airstream bringing the possibility of snow in places. Northern coastal counties may the have best chance of seeing some snowfall.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 35% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

Edited October 19, 2009 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The ninth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 further decreases the forecast probability of a white Christmas, but still suggests a higher than average probability of the UK being covered by a cold airstream bringing the possibility of snow in places. At the moment we think high ground in the north has the greatest chance of snow at Christmas.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 35% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Stuart]

20% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-10-24 17:27:00

Next Forecast: 2009-11-01 18:00:00

Synopsis

This week, the long range charts seem to have backed away from the idea of the fairly wintry synoptics it had suggested for a good amount of time. This week, it has often shown the 528dam line to be a fair disntance from the UK and with reluctance to get much closer. It doesnt look like it will be exceptionally mild but generally cool to mild with plentiful amounts of rain for many. Only higher ground such as the Scottish mountains may see slighlty higher chances of wintry precpitation at times. Overall this weeks charts suggest a fairly mild, changeable and sometimes windy Christmas time.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Xmas 2000 looks like a class chart, cant remember it being white? it wasnt, but I did have snow on 28th

Xmas 2000

Edited October 24, 2009 by mark forster 630

[Stuart]

it do seen we going backwords

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

20% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-10-24 17:27:00

Next Forecast: 2009-11-01 18:00:00

Synopsis

This week, the long range charts seem to have backed away from the idea of the fairly wintry synoptics it had suggested for a good amount of time. This week, it has often shown the 528dam line to be a fair disntance from the UK and with reluctance to get much closer. It doesnt look like it will be exceptionally mild but generally cool to mild with plentiful amounts of rain for many. Only higher ground such as the Scottish mountains may see slighlty higher chances of wintry precpitation at times. Overall this weeks charts suggest a fairly mild, changeable and sometimes windy Christmas time.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

Atleast it wont be too mild.

[Costa Del Fal]

It has gone a bit the wrong way this week i agree. Im sure it will all change again soon enough.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

USKAF is now currently showing 0-10% probability for much of UK with 11-15% for Scotland.

So far autumn looks to be mild one. November & Winter proper Jan/feb looks more hopeful.

personally id go with 40% chance white xmas in the south and perhaps higher in the north because you never know whats going to happen that far off.

Not to mention most of the time models are showing about 40%.

[Stuart]

Have the Charts change to colder weather yet for the big day or is it still milder

[Ben_Cambs]

Still the same, my temperature predictions for the day itself is in the north in Scotland maximum temperature will be 3-5C, while in the south 5-7C

[David-kig]

at this rate we will be in shorts with the mild sunshine, with confused wasps and birds mmmmmm

[MAF]

at this rate we will be in shorts with the mild sunshine, with confused wasps and birds mmmmmm

a normal xmas in London then

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The tenth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 makes no change to the forecast probability of a white Christmas. It continues to suggest a higher than average probability of the UK being covered by a cold air stream bringing the possibility of snow in places. We continue to think that high ground in the north has the greatest chance of snow this Christmas.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 35% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Paul]

The Netweather Xmas forecast starts this week <_<

[Stuart]

Good paul I am still hopeing for a white xmas

[Nick L]

Let's hope it is as promising as the NW winter forecast! Starting to get to the stage now where Xmas forecasts actually have a shred of credibility.

[Stuart]

35% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-11-01 18:09:00

Next Forecast: 2009-11-05 20:00:00

Synopsis

The charts continue to show a very changeable theme for around the christmas period. With LOW Pressure often in control, strong winds, periods of rain and frequent showers are possible. It seems at times the 528dam line will try and nudge in where it can, perhaps only reaching Scotland at times and at other times it may extend further. Obviously all of this indicates such variable conditions so a fairly low/moderate risk is issued. It could be fairly cool or fairly cold in the North and East but always milder the further South and West you go. In summary, the current forecast looks to be wet, blustery and cool.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Coast]

Latest odds from Paddy Power:

Settled according to the met office. Applies to Christmas Day 2009.

Record for the lowest temperature in Scotland to be beaten on Christmas Day (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire). 25/1

Record for the warmest Christmas Day on record in England to be beaten. (15.6C, 1920 Kilerton Devon) 25/1

Record for the lowest recorded temperature in England to be beaten on Christmas Day (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire). 40/1

Big Ben stops working due to frost 66/1

River Thames to freeze over and people to ice-skate on it on Christmas Day 150/1

Settled using official Weather station data from main International Airports of each city. 1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 on Dec 25th 2009. PP decision is final in settlement of this market.

Belfast 7/2

Cork 6/1

London 4/1

Cardiff 5/1

Dublin 5/1

Glasgow 3/1

Manchester 11/2

[noggin]

The Netweather Xmas forecast starts this week

:smiliz19:

[Stuart]

15% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-11-05 18:35:00

Next Forecast: 2009-11-10 19:00:00

Synopsis

A significant decrease in risk for a white Christmas right now as the long range charts seem very keen to bring a mild airflow in from the South or South West. It seems Low Pressure will be out to the west with Higher pressure over the continent so any cold air perhaps struggling to get near to the UK. Frequent spells of rain and showers seem likely, particularly in the North and far West where it may often be breezy or even windy. It will be Mild for many with only a slight increased risk for snow on very high ground in the far north but in general the current charts suggest a very low risk of anything wintry at the present time.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/