White Christmas 2009

[Coast]

I take my hat off for anybody issuing an LRF especially at this interesting time of year. By the end of the season we will all be able to look back at the detail and make judgements for ourselves over the accuracy and methods that helped achieve (or not) the forecast and the corresponding outcome.

What isn't so good is when an LRF writer backs off from the original forecast when things don't turn out as they expected - hence not only is my knowledge too low to make an LRF, I just couldn't take the 'shtick' afterwards when it all goes wrong!

[Snowmadsam]

The new forecast for a white christmas has come out

Chances have been increased

Yay

[Stuart]

That was Monday Forecast

[*Stormforce~beka*]

brave call Beka

i hope (in the nicest way) you are wrong though

You don't need to be brave. Just look at the last 20 years of snow fall on christnas day in Southern England. I'm sure the evidence would be with me! Odds very very low.

I would be more than happy to be wrong!

I'm still waiting for Paul's winter holidays to come out to Norway ... I so wanna meet santa clause play in real snow!!

[stewfox]

I predict 12c and wet and windy or at the very least ... just boring cloud and cold. Deffo no snow for Southern England!

The sign of the ‘even larger teapot’ with 12c seen as cold for Christmas day.

I think for us southerners it will be worse with 3c and heavy rain all day and ‘reports’ of snow up north. The snow will get within 2 miles of where I live but only last 6 hours.

However I’ll be 40 miles south at my mums do I get in the car and skip mums mushy brussel sprouts.??.

[Sleet30031972]

i confidently predict a WHITE HELL for all parts of the country.

I am 86% sure that, on Boxing day this year, the Scilly Isles will be, for the first time in recorded history, joined to the mainland by an 'ice bridge'.

You heard it hear first. Stock up on canned goods now.

[WhiteXmas]

i confidently predict a WHITE HELL for all parts of the country.

I am 86% sure that, on Boxing day this year, the Scilly Isles will be, for the first time in recorded history, joined to the mainland by an 'ice bridge'.

You heard it hear first. Stock up on canned goods now.

This is evidence of the ever growing severity of our country's drug problem.

Edited November 19, 2009 by WhiteXmas

[jethro]

i confidently predict a WHITE HELL for all parts of the country.

I am 86% sure that, on Boxing day this year, the Scilly Isles will be, for the first time in recorded history, joined to the mainland by an 'ice bridge'.

You heard it hear first. Stock up on canned goods now.

I'd have more confidence in your confidence if your name was a little more positive than Sleet...

[William of Walworth]

Hopecasting there Sleet??

I'm assuming there will be no white christmas whatsoever, until I see very strong signs to the contrary. We're on the coast here in Swansea, not exactly a zone prone to snow ....

[Iceni]

I remember Christmas 1994 very well as we had a short break in Ireland 12th December onwards with similar weather to now — stormy, windiy, rainy and very very mild — a couple of weeks later driving up to my sister's in Suffolk for Christmas, it was a very different story — the trees were white with a hoar frost and the lanes were ice rinks. Here's hoping this year will be the same… :lol: I couldn't bear it if Christmas day's +6 ° C

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The thirteenth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 further increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas in northern regions and decreases it in southern parts. We think there is a high chance of the UK being covered by a rather cold north westerly airstream which may bring sleet or snow showers to parts of the north.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 49% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[stewfox]

i confidently predict a WHITE HELL for all parts of the country.

I am 86% sure that, on Boxing day this year, the Scilly Isles will be, for the first time in recorded history, joined to the mainland by an 'ice bridge'.

You heard it hear first. Stock up on canned goods now.

That's just silly , I might as well predict we will have sales before Christmas

However if we assumed the sun went now that gives us 34 days would that be enough time (google) ??.

------------------

The Sun warms the Earth's atmosphere by about 15 degrees C per day. That amount is offset by infrared radiation, which cools the planet by the same amount. If the sun were to turn off, the cooling would continue, and the atmosphere would drop to freezing in just a few days.

However, the warm water of the oceans represents a very large storage of heat. As the atmosphere cools, the oceans would give up this heat. My calculations suggest it would take about three months for the oceans to begin to freeze.

Say after 50 days, the global temperature would be 190K. That's cold, -80C, but only 20 degrees colder than the South Pole researchers put up with, properly prepared

---------------------

Me,

Obviously arctic regions and the north and colder seas would freeze much more quickly

I'm sure we would see light icing but could it be called an ice bridge? Probably by mid Jan ??

[Moomin]

That's just silly , I might as well predict we will have sales before Christmas

However if we assumed the sun went now that gives us 34 days would that be enough time (google) ??.

------------------

The Sun warms the Earth's atmosphere by about 15 degrees C per day. That amount is offset by infrared radiation, which cools the planet by the same amount. If the sun were to turn off, the cooling would continue, and the atmosphere would drop to freezing in just a few days.

However, the warm water of the oceans represents a very large storage of heat. As the atmosphere cools, the oceans would give up this heat. My calculations suggest it would take about three months for the oceans to begin to freeze.

Say after 50 days, the global temperature would be 190K. That's cold, -80C, but only 20 degrees colder than the South Pole researchers put up with, properly prepared

---------------------

Me,

Obviously arctic regions and the north and colder seas would freeze much more quickly

I'm sure we would see light icing but could it be called an ice bridge? Probably by mid Jan ??

Bloody hell, we're in trouble then, sales are well and truly on around here at the moment!

[Stuart]

will we see a good white xmas forcast here later on net weather I hope so becuse i dont want to go and

[Tom D]

I've just been looking back through from September and it's rather amazing how similar the forecasts back then are to the latest one! They suggest a cold north/northwesterly air stream with low pressure to the east of the UK.

[Paul]

Latest Netweather forecast is now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

That not so good

[fear sneachta]

It was always going to be very unlikely to have a White Christmas. Let's face it!

Edited November 21, 2009 by fear sneachta

[Fozfoster]

That not so good

Its still at 15% for midlands, And over 4 weeks to go!!! hang in there!

[LomondSnowstorm]

It's far too early to make a reasonable prediction about the weather on the 25th December.

[Stuart]

30% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-11-23 18:54:00

Next Forecast: 2009-11-27 19:00:00

Synopsis

No massive changes in the charts over the last few days although they have been keen to have some milder air over us therefore a slight decrease in percentage risk for most. However the current scenario likely remains pretty much the same as before with LOW pressure dominating our weather with occasional spells of rain or showers with the risk of gales not ruled out. There could be some occasionalspells of air cold enough for snow drifting across the UK at times but overall the long range charts seem keen to have milder air over the UK for the majority of the UK. In weather terms there is still a fairly long way to go in forecasting for this day. In summary, it still looks likely for the UK to be unsettled and fairly mild particularly in the south.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The fourteenth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 significantly reduces the forecast probability of a white Christmas in all areas. We currently think there is a close to average chance of the UK seeing snowfall on Christmas day.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 25% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 20% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast update now online (sorry it's a bit late this evening)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

35% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-11-27 20:16:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-01 19:00:00

Synopsis

Again, the long range charts continue to chuck about the idea between a cold or mild outlook for Christmas day. With LOW Pressure likely to be in control, the positioning of them will make the difference between a cold or mild flow over the UK. Due to this the charts are really struggling to come out with a particular set up at the moment however it has shown a cold outlook slightly more lately therefore a very slight increase in risk for much of the UK. With the Jet stream perhaps way south of the UK an unsettled Christmas period still seems likely so in turn we can expect fairly frequent spells of rain or showers with windy conditions also a possibility. Overall, the current outlook remains no different from the last few forecast as the charts continue to chop and change.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Paul]

Latest update online - positive signs

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=