White Christmas 2009

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The eighteenth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the probability of a white Christmas in all areas. We currently think the developing cold spell has a good chance of lasting from now until Christmas and as a result the chance of snow are better than they have been for a number of years.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 55% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 55% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

Update 15, 29/11/2009

Update 16, 03/12/2009

Update 17, 06/12/2009

Update 18, 11/12/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Stuart]

55% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-11 18:55:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-12 19:00:00

Synopsis

As the charts now enter the medium range outlook for Christmas day, they continue to show the fairly strong possibility that the UK may be under a cold airflow at the time though there is a chance milder air will try and push back too. Next week sees the possibility of a quite potent cold spell. How long this lasts is still unsure. It may be sustained enough to last into the Christmas period or the Atlantic will try and return. It is this where the uncertainity comes from at the moment. Should the cold remain then snow seems quite likely, particularly in the North and East at the moment but many Western areas have similar chances. Should a breakdown of the cold weather occur on Christmas day then snow maybe possible for a time as the air masses clash. However there is also the situation where milder air may have already moved in where obviously rain is more likely. The charts seem keen on reloads of the cold at times which may sustain the cold spell further. Overall a good chance that Christmas day may be cold with a decent risk of snow for many however there are a few signs milder air may push in just before Christmas day itself but its too far away still to say exactly.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Luton Weather]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-12 21:41:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-14 19:00:00

Synopsis

Little change from Yesterdays forecast with a Cold Spell likely to last into or very near to the big day. Uncertainity remains and will remain for a bit longer as to how long the upcoming cold spell will last. Should a breakdown of the cold spell occur on Christmas day, due to the quite cold air that may have set upon the UK, quite signifcant snow may occur for a time. However this is just one possible scenario. There is good chances the cold spell may last further than Christmas day though there is much uncertainity right now. Overall there is still a high chance that cold air will be located over the UK or very close so percentage risks are very similar to the previous forecast. Overall, at the moment the Christmas day forecast comes very much down to how long the cold spell will last and at the moment this is very undecided. Check out the forecasts over the next week as details may change alot or not much at all. However the current chances for a White Christmas are the best they have been for some time.

[Stuart]

Good still much change there then let see what net weather forcast say later

[Nick L]

Good still much change there then let see what net weather forcast say later

Getting a little bit interesting now

[Upgrade]

Getting a little bit interesting now

The more i am looking at this spell coming up, the more i realise we havent seen something like this for possibly 20-30 years ; and i remmember christmasses past that had this going into them and we ended up with a lot of cold snowy weather over the following winter.

This spell has snow chaos and deep freeze written all over it. Whether it hits the big day or not, we don't know. but i feel it may well snow in the periof 22-26th - and snow may well lie on the ground throughout the christmas period over large parts of the country.

[Nick L]

The more i am looking at this spell coming up, the more i realise we havent seen something like this for possibly 20-30 years ; and i remmember christmasses past that had this going into them and we ended up with a lot of cold snowy weather over the following winter.

This spell has snow chaos and deep freeze written all over it. Whether it hits the big day or not, we don't know. but i feel it may well snow in the periof 22-26th - and snow may well lie on the ground throughout the christmas period over large parts of the country.

Yes I would agree with that assessment. Although we may not get a proper white Xmas (where snow falls on the day), there should be some snow on the ground for many.

[fear sneachta]

What are the chances of this happening on Christmas Day? This would be a White Christmas dream!

[Nick L]

What are the chances of this happening on Christmas Day? This would be a White Christmas dream!

That chart is from Friday.

[fear sneachta]

That chart is from Friday.

Yes, and do you think it's still possible?

[Nick L]

Yes, and do you think it's still possible?

Not particularly, well outside the reliable timeframe, and the possibilities keep flipping from one extreme to the other. Far too early to tell yet!

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

We are certainly overdue for a severe winter like that of 1963. Could it be this winter I wonder. The charts are certainly interesting at the moment. I think the balance has tipped too to a 60% white Christmas particularly for the eastern side of the country.

[Paul]

Latest Netweather Xmas forecast online - another slight increase in the risk of snow on the big day....

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

yes a good forecast paul let see how in pan out next few days

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The nineteenth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 decreased the probability of a white Christmas in all areas. We currently think the cold spell may break down just before the Christmas period, although confidence in this is low. This type of breakdown usually takes longer to reach northern areas and Scotland, so here there is a greater risk of the cold lasting until the big day!

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

Update 15, 29/11/2009

Update 16, 03/12/2009

Update 17, 06/12/2009

Update 18, 11/12/2009

Update 19, 13/12/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

[Thunder Snow]

A white xmas looks unlikely now

[Mark Bayley]

Looks cold on the ECM

Its still to early to be sure, chances do look good. Depends on how soon the breakdown is. I have always maintained that i think the models are to quick in braking down the pattern, IMO i think it would be sometime between the day itself and new year.

[Luton Weather]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-14 19:50:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-16 19:00:00

Synopsis

There are few changes since the last update at the moment with the uncertainity of how long the upcoming cold spell will last. The GFS is still keen for a breakdown of the cold very near to the Christmas period however there is still some time for change yet. Should a breakdown of the cold on Christmas day occur, there could be quite a battle with the cold and mild air as the cold will have really established itself over the UK by now. Snow could be widespread for a time before milder air probably wins over with rain in the end perhaps. This is only one scenario though and the cold spell could still last past Christmas day. Temperatures for the big day itself at the moment look cool with it not being especially cold or mild for most. The current situation needs watching closely from now on as it could go either way right now with a cold spell lasting past the big day or the slighlty more likely option right now and that being a battle between cold and milder air coming in with snow possible very near to the Christmas period.

[damianslaw]

60% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-14 19:50:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-16 19:00:00

Synopsis

There are few changes since the last update at the moment with the uncertainity of how long the upcoming cold spell will last. The GFS is still keen for a breakdown of the cold very near to the Christmas period however there is still some time for change yet. Should a breakdown of the cold on Christmas day occur, there could be quite a battle with the cold and mild air as the cold will have really established itself over the UK by now. Snow could be widespread for a time before milder air probably wins over with rain in the end perhaps. This is only one scenario though and the cold spell could still last past Christmas day. Temperatures for the big day itself at the moment look cool with it not being especially cold or mild for most. The current situation needs watching closely from now on as it could go either way right now with a cold spell lasting past the big day or the slighlty more likely option right now and that being a battle between cold and milder air coming in with snow possible very near to the Christmas period.

Will not be until the weekend when we have a clearer picture of christmas day prospects, so I'm taking these forecasts with a pinch of salt at the moment.

However, the general evolution will be for cold to not be too far away so potential I feel for a white christmas is quite high, more so the further north - if a battleground does develop on the day itself, expect it to be a big fight, however, I believe at this stage that the cold will still be in situ and more likely is for a surface high to have built over the country resulting in a very cold dry day with hopefully still plenty of snow cover on the ground. I can't see the cold being so quickly quashed - and look we will see still big heights over Greenland where is the jet tracking to the south and not on SW-NE trajectory.

[V for Very Cold]

all I can say atm is thaty it's the nicest set of runs I've seen in the run up Christmas in a long time - it's nice to be have a realistic change of snow so (relatively) close, rather than the usual straw clutching and hang wrining at this time of year

[Coast]

A white xmas looks unlikely now

www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/white-christmas

Bookmakers today reported a 1,000% rise in the number of bets placed on a white Christmas.

The flurry of bets came as forecasters predicted the first spell of bitterly cold temperatures would continue throughout the week. William Hill said punters had been flocking to place bets over the past week and Aberdeen, at 11/4, is favourite for snow to fall on December 25. The odds in Glasgow are 4/1, with Edinburgh on 7/2 and London on 9/2

news.scotsman.com

East of UK could get a white Christmas

Date: 15 December 2009

PARTS of the UK could see a white Christmas, forecasters confirmed yesterday, as the country braces itself for below-freezing temperatures and snow. Temperatures could fall as low as -2C tonight in parts of England and Wales. Parts of central and southern England could experience -5C on Wednesday. Bitterly cold wind will move over the country on Thursday, bringing snow showers to eastern parts of Scotland and England

www.asap.co.uk

Forecasters in the UK are already keen to predict this year’s winter holiday weather. But most are saying that while a white Christmas could still be possible, it is not likely that snow will make its way to the UK for Christmas day.

This week, however, weather reports indicated that the nation should be braced for well below freezing temperatures as well as snowfall. Temperatures are expected to reach minus two Celsius for most of England and up into Wales. MeteoGroup UK, the Press Associations weather division, is reporting that these temperatures will hold throughout the week into the weekend.

It is also being reported that regions in southern and central England may experience their lowest temperatures for the winter this week with the potential of a minus five Celsius during the week. The weather report was given at the start of this week by Paul Knightley, a forecaster for MeteoGroup UK.

He reported earlier that a bitter cold wind would travel across the country starting Thursday bringing heavy snow to eastern England and into Scotland. He added that snowfall for southern and central England and Wales would most likely begin Sunday and could potentially continue up through Christmas week.

He also said that he would not rule out a white Christmas for some parts of England with the potential of a Christmas day snowfall. But he did warn that it was more likely that it would not snow for Christmas or the week leading up to the winter holiday. The forecaster also cautioned holiday travellers to be sure to take extra precautions while travelling over the holidays.

[Weather-history]

Talking about a white Christmas, we've not had a real washout of a Christmas Day generally across the country for some years. Locally, there have been wet Christmases but as a whole for the country, I think the last one was probably 1998 and before that 1990.

[Thunder Snow]

Can't wait for the nw update

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Chances of white stuff on the 25 have decreased I think. Now only 20-30%.

[Coast]

White Christmas odds dip as cold snap lingers – but forecasts remain mixed. Bookmakers Ladbrokes and William Hill shorten odds with biggest flurry of bets on snow for 10 years

Odds on a white Christmas shortened today as warnings of heavy snow were issued for the end of this week, but forecasters are hedging their bets on the possibility of snow next week.

The Met Office said there was a moderate risk of severe weather as a "biting cold easterly wind" blows in from the continent. It issued a warning of heavy snow for most of eastern England on Thursday and Friday. Up to 10cm of snow is forecast to fall in parts of south-east England on Friday.

Bookmakers William Hill reported the biggest bet on a white Christmas for 10 years – its odds for snow on Christmas Day in London have nearly halved from 8-1 to 9-2. Aberdeen is the favourite at 11-4. So far there have been more than 13,000 individual white Christmas bets, a spokesman said. If it starts snowing he predicted betting would "go barmy".

One William Hill punter from Derbyshire stands to gain £14,700 if it snows across the UK at Christmas.

Ladbrokes is quoting odds of 11-4 for a snowy Christmas in the capital. It said more money had been wagered on a white Christmas in London than for snow in Moscow. "The recent cold snap has seen a flurry of white Christmas bets," its spokesman said.

www.guardian.co.uk