White Christmas 2009

[MAF]

thanks Paul, as i am not working on Xmas day this year it would be nice for it to be a cold and white (even if its a frost) one this year

[Stuart]

I just want to add to this

Forecast headline

The fifteenth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas in all areas. We currently think that a spell of cold and wintry weather with snow in places is likely during the second half of December, and this may coincide with Christmas.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

Update 15, 29/11/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

Edited November 29, 2009 by Stuart

[cheshire snow]

Will to that

C.S

[Backtrack]

I just want to add to this

Forecast headline

The fifteenth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas in all areas. We currently think that a spell of cold and wintry weather with snow in places is likely during the second half of December, and this may coincide with Christmas.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

Update 15, 29/11/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

Seems to be improving every run, including the net weather winter forecast! Heres hoping!

[Fozfoster]

I had a fiver at 7/1 for midlands

[Coast]

Latest odds from Paddy Power:

Where will snow fall on Christmas Day

Settled using official Weather station data from main International Airports of each city. 1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 on Dec 25th 2009.

Belfast 7/2

Cork 6/1

London 4/1

Dublin 9/2

Cardiff 5/1

Glasgow 3/1

Manchester 11/2

Christmas Day Temperature Betting

Settled according to the met office. Applies to Christmas Day 2009.

Record for the lowest temperature in Scotland to be beaten on Christmas Day (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire). 25/1

Record for the warmest Christmas Day on record in England to be beaten. (15.6C, 1920 Kilerton Devon) 25/1

Record for the lowest recorded temperature in England to be beaten on Christmas Day 26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire). 40/1

Big Ben stops working due to frost 66/1

River Thames to freeze over and people to ice-skate on it on Christmas Day

William Hill White Christmas Betting:

4/1 Aberdeen, 4/1 Glasgow, 9/2 London, 6/1 Cardiff.

16/1 that the lowest recorded temperature in England will be beaten (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire).

16/1 that the lowest temperature in Scotland will be beaten (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire).

22/1 for the record in Wales to be beaten (-23.3C, 21st Jan, 1940 Powys).

100/1 that the Thames will freeze over between Westminster Bridge and Tower Bridge.

100/1 Big Ben Fails to chime due to being frozen solid.

[Interitus]

That's why those bookies are wealthy!

[Mondy]

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/mode-forecast/id-59/

[Stuart]

40% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-01 18:55:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-04 19:00:00

Synopsis

As we enter the festive month the bouncy ride on the long range charts continue again with a fair balance of mild and cold outputs being shown for Christmas day. It will be down to the positioning of HIGH or LOW Pressure as to whether we recieve a cold airflow around thre Christmas period. If High pressure is located to our East, Low pressure will struggle to go acorss the UK resulting in a more mild flow possible. However the charts are not really tending to the mild or cold side right now so percentage figures remain similar overall. It does seem LOW pressure is the most likely output but its positioning will count mainly. Again, its hard to tell whther it will be quite mild or cold for the time of year but around Average would be the most likely situation obviously! In summary it will be most likely unsettled for all but how mild or cold is still to be decided by the charts.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[Paul]

Latest Xmas forecast now online - chances increase again...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Good Forecast paul

Edited December 2, 2009 by Stuart

[Luton Weather]

50% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-04 19:15:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-07 19:00:00

Synopsis

The last few days has seen the charts give a real trend for quite a significant cold spell around the Chrsitmas week. It keeps it quite prolonged aswell. Should this set up come off, precipitation would be rather showery but perhaps frequent in places. We are still likely to be Dominated by LOW pressure but in this setup it shouldnt be too severe. With widespread showers possible in a cold setup then snow cover for much of the UK seems likely. The South and South West will occasionally be more prone to brief milder spells but the charts seem to display a pretty firm cold spell. Obviously this could all still change easily. The current outlook in summary is for a a fairly prolonged cold spell with wintry showers quite likely.

[keithlucky]

50% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-04 19:15:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-07 19:00:00

Synopsis

The last few days has seen the charts give a real trend for quite a significant cold spell around the Chrsitmas week. It keeps it quite prolonged aswell. Should this set up come off, precipitation would be rather showery but perhaps frequent in places. We are still likely to be Dominated by LOW pressure but in this setup it shouldnt be too severe. With widespread showers possible in a cold setup then snow cover for much of the UK seems likely. The South and South West will occasionally be more prone to brief milder spells but the charts seem to display a pretty firm cold spell. Obviously this could all still change easily. The current outlook in summary is for a a fairly prolonged cold spell with wintry showers quite likely.

Weatheronline seems to say this is the best chance of a white christmas since 2003

[Stuart]

it all looking up so hope it dont change much now

[Ben_Cambs]

21 days till the big day, snow seems more likely every update, could a good part of the country get a white Christmas? Only time will tell, a lot of things can happen in 3 weeks, but bring it on Easterlies!!!

[Paul]

Latest update from Netweather now online - things are definitely getting pretty interesting!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Good forecast paul i dont want that to go down hill

[Luton Weather]

theweatheroutlook

Forecast headline

The sixteenth forecast update for Christmas 2009 keeps the forecast probability of a white Christmas in all areas unchanged. We currently think that a spell of cold and wintry weather with snow in places is likely during the second half of December, and this may coincide with Christmas.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

Update 13, 19/11/2009

Update 14, 23/11/2009

Update 15, 29/11/2009

Update 16, 03/12/2009

Edited December 6, 2009 by Paul

[MAF]

thanks for the update Paul

What we do have though is an increasing risk of a white Christmas and signs that a battle between colder and milder air may be taking place around the Xmas period very close by to the UK.

shame there has to be a battle, it means that cold may still be the loser. i wish it were cut and dry for a cold period to be in place come the 3rd week of december

[Stuart]

50% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-04 19:15:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-07 19:00:00

Synopsis

The last few days has seen the charts give a real trend for quite a significant cold spell around the Chrsitmas week. It keeps it quite prolonged aswell. Should this set up come off, precipitation would be rather showery but perhaps frequent in places. We are still likely to be Dominated by LOW pressure but in this setup it shouldnt be too severe. With widespread showers possible in a cold setup then snow cover for much of the UK seems likely. The South and South West will occasionally be more prone to brief milder spells but the charts seem to display a pretty firm cold spell. Obviously this could all still change easily. The current outlook in summary is for a a fairly prolonged cold spell with wintry showers quite likely.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/mode-forecast/id-60/

[Paul]

Latest update now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[fear sneachta]

The BBC seems to be agreeing that high pressure will dominate for much of December, giving cold, dry weather. However, it doesn't feel there'll be much in the way of snow and it thinks there could be some rainy incursions (who'd have thought!! :smiliz19:)during this cold, dry spell.

In my opinion, if we go by the BBC, Christmas will be dry, clear and cold.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Southender]

Odds being slashed dramatically across the board today.

I have a friend at Ladbrokes. They have London at 4/1 today, down from 8/1 on Friday.

I suspect that trend will continue, after the METO update earlier!...

Edited December 8, 2009 by LeighShrimper

[Ben_Cambs]

Well with the latest ECM 12z charts out, a Whit Christmas is a very good chance now, snow before the big day is likely so fingers crossed. Lets enjoy the ride everyone!

[The watcher]

Odds being slashed dramatically across the board today.

I have a friend at Ladbrokes. They have London at 4/1 today, down from 8/1 on Friday.

I suspect that trend will continue, after the METO update earlier!...

Not good news IMO, I have been advising a few people that by next week I should give them a good chance of getting a bet down for WC and getting it right, just waiting to see how the models pan out and which area will be best to place the bet on. May not be worth it though if they slash the odds too much.