White Christmas 2009

[Nick L]

Lol you have to laugh when she said rain onc hristmas day when Snow is scattered across the country.

I know! She said "rain for the south" - well why put snow graphics over southwest England then?

Talk about covering all possibilities

To be fair, nobody has a clue, and it will go down to the wire.

[keithlucky]

I know! She said "rain for the south" - well why put snow graphics over southwest England then?

Talk about covering all possibilities

To be fair, nobody has a clue, and it will go down to the wire.

I think countryfile was quiet positive for the swales put a bet on snow for cardiff lol.

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

White xmas looks dead in the water for southern England now.

[V for Very Cold]

there is a nice dichotomy between the forecasters nailing this cold spell (barring localised adjustments) pretty well, and yet 5 days out from Christmas, it really could go anyway

oh and mods - time to open a new thread? we're clocking up the pages on this one lol

[Paul]

Latest forecast now online - White Christmas is on!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

[Nick L]

Latest forecast now online - White Christmas is on!

http://www.netweathe...type=xmas;sess=

It's quite fitting that the West Midlands isn't covered on that snow risk chart :lol:

Best chance that we have had though since 2004.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The latest set of runs have evolved in the best possible way regarding chances of a white Christmas. Yesterday's runs suggested the possibility of it being cold and dry through to Christmas Day, or alternatively a large low winding itself up to the south, producing frontal precipitation but temperatures mostly the wrong side of marginal, producing dull sleety weather and a thaw for most.

Today that low is well away to the south on all runs, but we have another trough to the north of it which is set to bring its own area of precipitation north-eastwards on Christmas Eve. This will still be marginal- some areas might see sleety stuff and a thaw from it- but a lot less marginal than what the GFS runs threw up yesterday. Many places could see accumulations of snow from it particularly in the Midlands and northern England.

Christmas Day itself will have an area of precipitation moving in from the west during the afternoon/evening which, as it bumps into the cold air, could give some snowfall for some on the big day itself. The (temporary) breakdown to milder weather is then perfectly timed to hold off until Boxing Day.

[Ben_Cambs]

I hope to keep snow cover till Christmas day. Ive lost about 40% of snow cover over the past 5 days. I should be able to hang on till then. The "milder" period after Christmas should be only short term maybe only lasting a week or so, and even then there will be snow on higher ground. Janurary is certainly going to be an interesting month, with very likely more widespread significant snow.

[MR EXTREMES]

absolutely excited about our green christmas rubbish were about to have anyway good excuse to get hammered and forget the white christmas joke.:):)

[valiant]

Odds sliding on a London white Christmas, out to 5/1 from 3/1 at lunchtime today.

[Thunder Snow]

Do i have a good chance for a white xmas

[rich1]

absolutely excited about our green christmas rubbish were about to have anyway good excuse to get hammered and forget the white christmas joke.

how many white christmases do the south coast ever get? A rough estimate is none...so you can hardly be that suprised can you

as it is, it looks cold for most areas except the far sw, but the models have struggled somewhat with the detail over the last few days and even at very short notice there is potential for snow in a lot of places still. I wouldnt be ruling out anything at this point though coastal areas around the south and Cornwall I would say that it is extremely unlikely

but for other areas, in this pattern, anything is possible. For me I am kind of hoping the night stays clear on xmas eve and the cold remains in place for the day with a sunny frosty xmas with our residual snow on the ground in the shade giving a xmassy feel. Be far better than anything I can remember if that was the case and there is a decent chance of that IMO. Colder today than was modelled anyway so...

[damianslaw]

Interesting developments as we head towards the big day with chances of precipitation being of snow here. We are liekly to keep the snow cover at least with hopefully some further top up tomorrow night and into christmas eve courtesy of the low pressure and associated front tracking from the south east - we look to remain in sub 528 dam air so we will stay on the right side of marginal.

Would be nice to have a snow shower on the big day and for the front to stay away until later on Christmas Day, this is very likely to bring some snow at first, but by Boxing Day a horrid sleety mush looks likely.

In overview this has been the best pre-christmas spell of weather for snow since well probably 1995, other years since like 1999 and 2001 saw the snow disspear by christmas day whereas others though cold ala 1996, 2006 were dry with no snow.

[mountain shadow]

Precipiataion pushing into Northern Ireland on Christmas Day Evening. Surface temps below freezing, 850's of -4oC, sub 528 dam, unfortunately dew points don't look great.

Definite chance of hill snow though.

[Stuart]

80% Chance of a white Christmas

Last Night

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-12-22 19:37:00

Next Forecast: 2009-12-23 19:00:00

Synopsis

The outlook for Christmas day is becoming much clearer now. To begin with in the early hours pretty much everywhere will be cold enough for something wintry but for the majority in England and Wales, Christmas day looks to be rather dry and sunny albeit chilly. Slightly milder air will try and nudge in for Southern areas during the day but it will barely make much of a difference other than make precipitation more likely to fall as rain. Scotland may stay in the cold air for the whole day. The GFS has hinted at some precipitation to be in Scotland on Christmas day especially around Southern and Central Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland. Snow looks very likely at the moment with some locally significant accumulations possible particularly on higher ground. For other Nothern and Central areas of the UK the risks remain decent and should anything fall from the sky it could be wintry though it looks mainly dry. Some rain may reach South Western areas towards the second half of the day with a little leading edge sleet or snow a possibility. However it will be a chilly day everywhere with Scotland struggling to reach past 0c for some. Northern and Central areas may reach abot 0-4c. The South may see upto 7c perhaps slightly higher in the far South West. Tomorrow is the second to last update so check back as some changes could still occur. Please note that the white christmas risks are based on snow falling on the day.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

[High Altitude]

Temperatures overnight according to the GFS 06z run are expected to be around 2c over east Midlands, east Anglia

and central southern and southeast England.

I wonder with precipitation forcast and dew points around +1 with a little help from evaporation cooling could we

see some snow in these areas, if only to win my £10 bet of snow on Christmas day in London lol.

I second that hopecast also have a £10 at 8-1. Has to fall on Buckingham Palace though. Looks like the queens got her work cut out tomorrow. Knowing my luck it'll fall when she;s doing her speech and i'll miss out yet again Lol.

[Iceni]

I second that hopecast also have a £10 at 8-1. Has to fall on Buckingham Palace though. Looks like the queens got her work cut out tomorrow. Knowing my luck it'll fall when she;s doing her speech and i'll miss out yet again Lol.

O/T: I've got £20 @ 4/1 for London… why Buck Pal though? I thought the technical definition was a single snowflake falling on the roof of the Met Office between the hours of midnight Christmas Eve to midnight Christmas Day

I'll be glad for a brief respite in the perishing cold scenario — we're low on logs and they're not delivering more until 4th January — after that it can go back to Armageddon mode.

[Sleet30031972]

Put a bet on at William Hill 3 years ago. £100 on at 50-1 for a white christmas before 2050 (yes really!).

I am on tenterhooks

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Put a bet on at William Hill 3 years ago. £100 on at 50-1 for a white christmas before 2050 (yes really!).

I am on tenterhooks

Why would the odds be 50-1 for a white Christmas before 2050, how can that be less likely than having a white Christmas in any single year?

[Sleet30031972]

Why would the odds be 50-1 for a white Christmas before 2050, how can that be less likely than having a white Christmas in any single year?

You ask me mate. That why i took them up on it. Not been offered since - think they just took leave of their senses for a few weeks. As close a statistical certainty as you are going to get in the world of betting!

[Iceni]

According to the radar we should have won our bets for a technically white Christmas already…again, what is this Buckingham Palace business? Do they have monitoring equipment on the roof like the Met Office? I'm smelling a rat.

[High Altitude]

O/T: I've got £20 @ 4/1 for London… why Buck Pal though? I thought the technical definition was a single snowflake falling on the roof of the Met Office between the hours of midnight Christmas Eve to midnight Christmas Day

I'll be glad for a brief respite in the perishing cold scenario — we're low on logs and they're not delivering more until 4th January — after that it can go back to Armageddon mode.

I put the bet on at William Hill online. The statement specifies Buckingham Palace for a London white christmas. I was quite surprised as well but just read the same on sky news.

[Iceni]

I put the bet on at William Hill online. The statement specifies Buckingham Palace for a London white christmas. I was quite surprised as well but just read the same on sky news.

Who stays up on the roof of Buckingham Palace from midnight Christmas Eve to midnight Christmas Day monitoring the type of precipitation?

NW radar has always been extremely accurate for my location so I've no reason to doubt the recorded snowfall (however brief) I posted just now… The MetO own radar shows precipitation over west London at the same time (4:45–5:10 am). Come on Michael Fish, now's your chance to champion our cause! Make them PAY UP!

[Methuselah]

Who stays up on the roof of Buckingham Palace from midnight Christmas Eve to midnight Christmas Day monitoring the type of precipitation?

Michael Fagan???

[benb]

Who stays up on the roof of Buckingham Palace from midnight Christmas Eve to midnight Christmas Day monitoring the type of precipitation?

NW radar has always been extremely accurate for my location so I've no reason to doubt the recorded snowfall (however brief) I posted just now… The MetO own radar shows precipitation over west London at the same time (4:455:10 am). Come on Michael Fish, now's your chance to champion our cause! Make them PAY UP!

I've money on London and all the radar indications are that there was wintry precipitation. How can the result be impartial if it is not overseen by the met office? Did the met office have some one at Buck Pal watching the weather all night? Why would they?

Edited December 25, 2009 by benb