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White Christmas 2009

Stuart

By Stuart
in Spring Weather Discussion

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)

:cc_confused:

15% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-11-05 18:35:00

Next Forecast: 2009-11-10 19:00:00

Synopsis

A significant decrease in risk for a white Christmas right now as the long range charts seem very keen to bring a mild airflow in from the South or South West. It seems Low Pressure will be out to the west with Higher pressure over the continent so any cold air perhaps struggling to get near to the UK. Frequent spells of rain and showers seem likely, particularly in the North and far West where it may often be breezy or even windy. It will be Mild for many with only a slight increased risk for snow on very high ground in the far north but in general the current charts suggest a very low risk of anything wintry at the present time.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

still 7 weeks away but that is the most likely right

Edited by mark forster 630
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suffolkboy_ Aficionado

suffolkboy_

Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
Posted

There is absolutely no point of looking at any forecast for 7 weeks time. Even the general setup is impossible to predict at this range, let alone whether or not snow will be a likely outcome of that setup. I think trying to forecast the set-up for 3-4 weeks time would be a stab in the dark. I will only start taking "White Christmas" forecasts seriously 2 weeks before Christmas day.

In all, if the forecast says snow, don't pin your hopes up. If it says a mild Atlantic onslaught, try not to get too upset. You may as well flip a coin!

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted

There is absolutely no point of looking at any forecast for 7 weeks time. Even the general setup is impossible to predict at this range, let alone whether or not snow will be a likely outcome of that setup. I think trying to forecast the set-up for 3-4 weeks time would be a stab in the dark. I will only start taking "White Christmas" forecasts seriously 2 weeks before Christmas day.

In all, if the forecast says snow, don't pin your hopes up. If it says a mild Atlantic onslaught, try not to get too upset. You may as well flip a coin!

Agree putting weekly updates that it we have 35% chance of a white christmas here and 40% here etc to me is just like reading the horoscopes. A bit of fun but thats all it is.

T240 and we start to get a very very rough idea but its only T96 that percentage figs will have any credence

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Nice to see it back! Thanks Paul. Those percentages tie in nicely with the recent UKASF Forecast i notice too. :)

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Snowstorm1 Apprentice

Snowstorm1

Posted
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Showers, Snowy Periods , Blizzards, Cold Weather
  • Location: Thornaby-on-Tees
Posted

Nice to see it back! Thanks Paul. Those percentages tie in nicely with the recent UKASF Forecast i notice too. :)

Mate could i join your site again MW and woooo i love these forcasts :DJust hope by 1 day to go we have 80%-100%chance of a white christmas :)

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isleofwightsnowgal Newbie

isleofwightsnowgal

Posted
  • Location: isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: isle of wight
Posted

nice to see it back but I am away to crycray.gif

TWO have there crimbo weather update 2 day and its looking good!! Up to 40 % chance in the North and South!! YAY I know its a long way to go but theres hope! :)

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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
  • Author
Posted

Forecast headline

The eleventh forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas and now suggests a much higher than average probability of the UK having wintry conditions with the possibility of snow during the Christmas period.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

clap.gif

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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
  • Author
Posted

wallbash.gif

25% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-11-10 19:25:00

Next Forecast: 2009-11-16 19:00:00

Synopsis

Similar prospects have been shown on the long range charts over the last few days. That is of unsettled weather in control and mild for all. The charts have occasionally seen the 528dam line brush near the UK therefore a very slight increase in the percentage risk for Northern Scotland however there is no real difference. Occasional rain and breezy or even windy spells are likely with perhaps Gales in places. Temperatures in this setup will be mild and variations shouldnt be too mild acorss the UK. In summary, the charts continue to show an unsettled but mild outlook.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

post-449-12578816194558_thumb.png

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noggin Aficionado

noggin

Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Posted

lucky i nerver stay up for that forcast i will go away andcray.gif now

.....after you with the hanky please, Stuart. :pardon:

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Latest odds:

Where will snow fall on Christmas Day

Singles Only. Settled using official Weather station data from main International Airports of each city. 1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 on Dec 25th 2009. PP decision is final in settlement of this market.

Belfast 7/2

Cork 6/1

London 4/1

Cardiff 5/1

Dublin 5/1

Glasgow 3/1

Manchester 11/2

Christmas Day Temperature Betting

Singles Only. Settled according to the Met Office. Applies to Christmas Day 2009.

Record for the lowest temperature in Scotland to be beaten on Christmas Day (-27.2C, Jan 10th 1982, Aberdeenshire). 25/1

Record for the warmest Christmas Day on record in England to be beaten. (15.6C, 1920 Kilerton Devon) 25/1

Record for the lowest recorded temperature in England to be beaten on Christmas Day (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire). 40/1

Big Ben stops working due to frost 66/1

River Thames to freeze over and people to ice-skate on it on Christmas Day 150/1

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Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
  • Author
Posted

Forecast headline

The twelfth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas in northern regions and decreases it in souther parts. We think there is a high chance of the UK being covered by a rather cold north westerly airstream which may bring sleet or snow showers to parts of the north.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/Christmas%202009%20weather%20forecast.aspx

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Forecast headline

The twelfth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 increases the forecast probability of a white Christmas in northern regions and decreases it in souther parts. We think there is a high chance of the UK being covered by a rather cold north westerly airstream which may bring sleet or snow showers to parts of the north.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

Update 7, 14/10/2009

Update 8, 19/10/2009

Update 9, 24/10/2009

Update 10, 01/11/2009

Update 11, 07/11/2009

Update 12, 15/11/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

If that forecast stays the same... wow, happy days or what! A cold North westerly airflow can knock on my door anyway.

I might put a fiver on a white Christmas soon.8)

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

Next update:

We think the chances of a white xmas has diminished to 1% in the North to 0% in the South with a mild SW'ly set to dominate bringing record temperatures to many parts of the UK! Pack away those winter clothes and bring out those shorts and t-shirts*. 8)

*Not to be taken seriously of course.

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted

If that forecast stays the same... wow, happy days or what! A cold North westerly airflow can knock on my door anyway.

I might put a fiver on a white Christmas soon.drunk.gif

I have drinks.gif @ 7/1

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ribster Aficionado

ribster

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted

Next update:

We think the chances of a white xmas has diminished to 1% in the North to 0% in the South with a mild SW'ly set to dominate bringing record temperatures to many parts of the UK! Pack away those winter clothes and bring out those shorts and t-shirts*. 8)

*Not to be taken seriously of course.

I bet a months salary that we get a white Christmas :unknw:

*Not to be taken seriously of course.

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

I have drinks.gif @ 7/1

Good luck!

I need some luck too 8)

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Derp Patrol Explorer

Derp Patrol

Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
Posted

At this rate, I will be wearing shorts on Christmas day.. today was very mild, it was 15c at 12pm, not that bad for the time of year at all.. it actually felt very pleasant. I personally think that the chances of a white Xmas here are 0, down here we tend to only get snow in Jan and Feb..

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ribster Aficionado

ribster

Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Posted

At this rate, I will be wearing shorts on Christmas day.. today was very mild, it was 15c at 12pm, not that bad for the time of year at all.. it actually felt very pleasant. I personally think that the chances of a white Xmas here are 0, down here we tend to only get snow in Jan and Feb..

Not sure I see the link between today and Christmas day, unless the rest of us are missing something?

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