White Christmas 2009

[maidstone weather]

You have got to be kidding me, how can anyone say that such and such a place has a 40-45% of a white christmas. How can it be accurate!!? It's just under 3 months away!!

....only joking

;)

:lol:

2009 has been absolutely rubbish for storms, but fantastic for snow. Lets hope the snow trend continues for Christmas.:lol:

[stewfox]

Would it be possible for at least an hour of that to start about 11.30pm Christmas Eve please? It would set the mood perfectly to leave midnight mass and find the first sprinkling settled all around.

Sorry you get light drizzle, the white stuff is 30 miles to your East , sets in around 11.30ish

Anyway I assume a realistic forcast is cira T96 for a wide spread area and T24 for local

I never do understand these 40% chance things in September/October. Its a bit like saying based on Man Utd performance in 2015 they have a 40% chance of wining the league. ie we havent a clue re their performance in 2015

Edited October 2, 2009 by stewfox

[stewfox]

3 months time isn't next year.. you're missing out October!

???

1 months time = 2nd November

2 months time = 2nd December

3 months time = 2nd January

[Thundery wintry showers]

We had a white christmas not too long ago really. Around 3 years ago

You did, but I think it was slightly longer than that- 2004 had a white Christmas over a large area of north-west England. Even Lancaster had a thin snow cover accumulate that afternoon.

:lol:

2009 has been absolutely rubbish for storms, but fantastic for snow. Lets hope the snow trend continues for Christmas.

Not so at UEA. Apart from the big snowstorm of 22/23 November (which I was here for, giving rise to a hectic weekend of snowmen and snowballs!) the first two months of 2009 had surprisingly little snow at UEA, so I'm told (I was at Exeter at the time).

Meanwhile at UEA there were some big storms about in July, and there was also a big one on 15 June, though admittedly August and September had remarkably little thunder activity.

However on the whole I think of Norwich as being one of the most reliable places in lowland southern England for snow, due to the combination of exposure to snow showers from both north and east winds and inland location. Last winter was quite unusual in that many of the most traditionally snow prone areas had relatively little snow, and vice versa.

[Stuart]

well what a good forecat but it a long way off

65% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-10-04 20:42:00

Next Forecast: 2009-10-11 18:00:00

Synopsis

This weeks output has been a complete turn around from last week. Almost every day the long range charts have put much of the UK under a very cold airflow and sometimes it has covered all of the UK. Lately it has showed the 528dam line well over the UK and some parts have even been close to the 510dam line which suggests quite a significant area of cold therefore the snow risk increases. The charts have been keen to show the cold particularly just before Christmas with perhaps a breakdown of the cold just after. Rainfall wise, more showery conditions seem likely with these more frequent in the west where LOW Pressure will be most often. If this setup was to come off then quite a significant cold spell would happen but it must be remembered that the situation will have likely changed by next week but based on the trends shown this week, the percentage risk has been raised a very considerable amount. The far SW in this set up would be closer to milder air as well as the south coast but still within a good chance from this setup in a good chance.

http://ukasf.co.uk/module-Christmas/

Edited October 4, 2009 by Stuart

[Costa Del Fal]

Great!!! Looking more and more likely now, will spread the word. A white Christmas is on its way people!! Woohoo!!

Lol. I have also been following the long rnage charts and they have really showed some great set ups this week. Lets hope it will last.

[Stuart]

Forecast headline

The sixth forecast update for

Christmas 2009 decreases the forecast probability of a white Christmas. We currently think it is less likely that the boundary between cold and mild may be further east and north leaving the UK under a relatively mild and damp airflow. In this scenario the most likely places to see snow is high ground in Scotland.

Probabilities

Northern areas of the are considered to have a 30% chance of a white Christmas.

Southern areas of the are considered to have a 25% chance of a white Christmas.

Forecast issued

Update 1, 02/09/2009

Update 2, 07/09/2009

Update 3, 17/09/2009

Update 4, 22/09/2009

Update 5, 01/10/2009

Update 6, 03/10/2009

http://www.theweathe...20forecast.aspx

Edited October 4, 2009 by Stuart

[V for Very Cold]

30 % I'll take those odds, though it's a little deflating when you realise it''s 30% chance of snow anywhere north

Edited October 5, 2009 by V for Very Cold

[Thundery wintry showers]

On Christmas Day 2009, a high at 1036.4 mbar will be sat just off eastern Scotland pulling record-breaking warm southerlies from Saharan Africa. Sea fog will lap onto the coast of Tyne and Wear, otherwise it will be a dry and bright day. Temperatures will range from 22 degrees in the north, to 30 in the south.

Oh wait a minute, we've just spotted a new development on 16 October which will have ramifications through to November and then December leading to some very definite weather for 25 December. A large Greenland High will ridge towards Scandinavia and we will have north-easterlies and 850hPa values of -15C... honest.

*Note: do not take any notice of this "prediction"!

For another satirical take on forecasts, try this:

[V for Very Cold]

I always knew the forecast team had insider knowledge bet they are all at the bookies laying bets now

[Eugene]

Christmas day 2009 will have a big bartlett high over france with warm tropical southwesterlies deep from the azores, max temperatures might challenge the UK max temperature record for December due to the Fohn effect in favoured locations of scotland or wales.

*Please take note of this forecast i am 110% sure it will be correct because Ian Brown told me

Edited October 5, 2009 by Eugene

[johnholmes]

a fai amount of taking the hiss going on in here this morning it seems?

[Rollo]

All this talk about there being no no on Christmas day is tommy rot-I assure everyone that should they go to the top of ptarmigan in the Cairngorms that they will see some no.

[Backtrack]

All this talk about there being no no on Christmas day is tommy rot-I assure everyone that should they go to the top of ptarmigan in the Cairngorms that they will see some no.

I dont understand that post :S what does it mean?

You did, but I think it was slightly longer than that- 2004 had a white Christmas over a large area of north-west England. Even Lancaster had a thin snow cover accumulate that afternoon.

Not so at UEA. Apart from the big snowstorm of 22/23 November (which I was here for, giving rise to a hectic weekend of snowmen and snowballs!) the first two months of 2009 had surprisingly little snow at UEA, so I'm told (I was at Exeter at the time).

Meanwhile at UEA there were some big storms about in July, and there was also a big one on 15 June, though admittedly August and September had remarkably little thunder activity.

However on the whole I think of Norwich as being one of the most reliable places in lowland southern England for snow, due to the combination of exposure to snow showers from both north and east winds and inland location. Last winter was quite unusual in that many of the most traditionally snow prone areas had relatively little snow, and vice versa.

Thanks TWS :unsure:

[Methuselah]

What we really need now, is SATSIGS to help us get all this crap into perspective? :lol:

[Stuart]

What the Charts showing for this week for xmas day?

Hope it good

[reef]

The current chart isnt too bad actually. It shows a southerly tracking jet with a front moving in from the south-west hitting colder air. 2M Temperatures range from 2C in the South-east to 6C in the North-west, so definitely not mild.

Air pressure and thickness chart:

A reasonable chance of a white-xmas if that was to occur.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The current chart isnt too bad actually. It shows a southerly tracking jet with a front moving in from the south-west hitting colder air. 2M Temperatures range from 2C in the South-east to 6C in the North-west, so definitely not mild.

Air pressure and thickness chart:

A reasonable chance of a white-xmas if that was to occur.

I would certainly take that

Hopefully the almost constant appearance of sub 528dam thickness across the UK in deep deep FI on the CFS is an indication of at least a reasonably cold snowy winter....

Is it too much to hope???

[Coast]

In true ramping SACRA stylee:

65% Chance of a white Christmas

White Christmas Forecast Issued: 2009-10-04 20:42:00

Next Forecast: 2009-10-11 18:00:00

Synopsis

This weeks output has been a complete turn around from last week. Almost every day the long range charts have put much of the UK under a very cold airflow and sometimes it has covered all of the UK. Lately it has showed the 528dam line well over the UK and some parts have even been close to the 510dam line which suggests quite a significant area of cold therefore the snow risk increases. The charts have been keen to show the cold particularly just before Christmas with perhaps a breakdown of the cold just after. Rainfall wise, more showery conditions seem likely with these more frequent in the west where LOW Pressure will be most often. If this setup was to come off then quite a significant cold spell would happen but it must be remembered that the situation will have likely changed by next week but based on the trends shown this week, the percentage risk has been raised a very considerable amount. The far SW in this set up would be closer to milder air as well as the south coast but still within a good chance from this setup.

http://ukasf.co.uk/

Current Paddy Power odds:

Where will snow fall on Christmas Day

Singles Only. Settled using official Weather station data from main International Airports of each city. 1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 on Dec 25th 2009. PP decision is final in settlement of this market.

Belfast 7/2

Cork 6/1

London 4/1

Cardiff 5/1

Dublin 5/1

Glasgow 3/1

Manchester 11/2

[katzndogz]

We cannot rely on nature to get a white christmas,but.

If everybody from Moscow to Calais were to point their fans westwards.using the fastest setting,usually number 3.

I am pretty sure we could develop a man made surface easterly and get a few flakes over here.

The only stumbling block is the English channel,but i have a cunning plan involving the channel tunnel,

Eurostar and 5000 chest freezers.

Does Eurostar run on xmas day?

[Stuart]

what is the CFS charts Showing today for the big day

[reef]

what is the CFS charts Showing today for the big day

Its showing a Bartlett/Euro-high scenario, bringing in mild air from the south. Temperatures would be in double figures everywhere except for the extreme south-east according to the 2M chart. However even there it looks like 8-10C.

Totally different to the last chart which highlights the dangers of dwelling too much on LRFs.

[Stuart]

That not so good

[The watcher]

Not only that, but to think that we come on here just to check some winter forecast 2+ months away is silly really. Even the most amatuer of forecasters knows that any forecast 5 days + holds no water. Unless of course it is HP dominant, they are the type of synoptics that (if stick long enough) are a forecasters dream, because you can't be far out with rainfall totals and won't be expectant of high winds. Even still, it is practicaly impossible to give a forecast for a single day 3 months away.

[Cheese Rice]

What i dont understand is why do the charts go out that far??