December CET

[reef]

The CET will no doubt end well below average at this rate, however to even reach 3.0C we now require a mean for the remaining 17 days of just 0.9C. Reaching 4.0C by Sunday isnt out of the realms of posibility but coincidently would also require a mean of 0.9C - just over 7 days only.

[kold weather]

Models still look very uncertain for the period past 23rd, we still have a very big spread over whats possible. IF the 18z is right then we could even get into the 2s given the ice days that are suggested by the model.

I'd expect anything between 3-5C is the most likely target but really we still could see just about anything!

[stewfox]

Why no CET update ? Its still only out to13th ?

They waiting for end of Global Warming sumit ?

[SteveB]

Why no CET update ? Its still only out to13th ?

They waiting for end of Global Warming sumit ?

Makes me nervous when they don't update, they did it last year when we had the cold spell. Seems to take them longer when we are in a cold spell .

[Weather-history]

Why no CET update ? Its still only out to13th ?

They waiting for end of Global Warming sumit ?

5.6 by the 14th

[Optimus Prime]

Philip's site (which has mysteriously been lower then Hadley over the last few months...ahead of the climate change summit ) Is on 5.4c which is -0.05c on the 71-000 norm for upto the 15th. Compare this to last year where we were at 2.3c to this point and ended on 3.6c on climate-uk.

Mean max 7.7c (-0.4c)

Mean Min 3.0c (+0.3c)

[Stu_London]

A bitterly cold 12z GFS is projecting a CET in running by 25th December of 2.7C with some very cold days (we could see days of -3 or -4 early next week).

I am not sure the GFS has snow cover factored in, so we might even see even lower temps than being currently progged if the charts verify well.

Looks like a rising picture after the 25th, but still FI so no guarantee. 3.0C to 3.5C looks like a likely final position.

1.7C would be required for 2009 to be sub 10C - not very likely but if FI were to change?

[SteveB]

Why haven't Hadley updated , still showing for the 13th.

It only makes them look more suspicious than they already are.

[stewfox]

Why haven't Hadley updated , still showing for the 13th.

It only makes them look more suspicious than they already are.

Yes i was thinking that, another Watergate , with a global warming sorry climate change summit going on , it wont look good on Gordon Brown if the CET for December starts taking a nose dive.

Maybe the data will be released end of July ?

Any better explanation

[Weather-history]

Hadley CET up to 16th is now 5.3

It is there but you only see it if you look at the individual daily CET means at the moment.

[Optimus Prime]

I really don't understand this - Why do they often sease in updating when it's cold outside? Even Philip Eden does it.

All I can imagine is they need resources elsewhere and updating the HADCET or MADCET is the least of their concerns seeing as the data is backed up elsewhere.

Anyway I make 5.3c 0.1c below the normal for upto this point.

[SteveB]

Still no update from Hadley since the 13th.

What's going on???

[Weather-history]

Still no update from Hadley since the 13th.

What's going on???

If you have read my posts you would see they have! Look at this link

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2009

[stewfox]

If you have read my posts you would see they have! Look at this link

http://hadobs.metoff...t_mean_est_2009

I group of meaningless data

I think he was talking about the CET release

[SteveB]

I group of meaningless data

I think he was talking about the CET release

Indeed I was, what Mr Data posted is indeed a group of numbers which I can't get my head around.

[Weather-history]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2009

All they are provisional CET daily means x 10 i.e a 3.6 becomes 36

The historic CET daily CET means are the same.

The top line are monthly anomalies eg -49 in the first column is the January anomaly x 100 i.e -0.49, the second to top line are the monthly CETs x 100 ie the 333 in that first column is the January CET x 100, therefore the January CET was 3.33 (provisionally)

If you look at December it says 532 ie the December CET up to the 16th is 5.32

Edited December 18, 2009 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

CET at the moment at 5.15C, should start to see some big drops over the next few days, very probably getting an CET ice day tomorrow (maybe even a real ice day) and could see several in the next few days after that.

Still got a range of anything from 3-5C IMO, much depends on what happens post xmas, whether we see a continuation of this cold spell or whether we get milder conditions back, I'd say below average is quite likely now though.

[The watcher]

Cool start with average temps, slightly milder period until mid december, return to average until the 20th then a drop as we head through christmas and towards the new year to below average for a week.

4.8c

I got my forecast 80% right, any chance I can lower my CET guess a bit?

[Weather-history]

Last Friday was the start of the below average spell for the CET with every day including last Friday giving a CET daily mean that was below the 1971-2000 and the 1961-1990 average.

11th-17th December CET: 3.4

Today is the first day of the really cold stuff.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Yep the last week has been below average though nothing too bad and as such we have only seen a gradual shift downwards in the CET, the next few days however does indeed see a much colder spell setting up, looks like we are going to get several days at least of CET ice days and we should drop below 5C once today is over.

Will be interesting to see how low the CET can go, then also how long this cold air can hold on for...

Need a 2 week average of 0.1C pretty much to get below 3C...the next few days should do this but after that there is too much uncertainty, below 4C looks more probable.

Edited December 18, 2009 by kold weather

[stewfox]

All .............................

is 5.32

I got this bit thanks

[kold weather]

Looking at the model progs of temps (and I've actually probably been rather conservative with the temps) we come out at 3.6C by the end of the 23rd, that means a 8 day CET period of about 9.35C which will not happen I suspect, even some of the mildest December periods have struggled to get that sort of spell...

I know December 2000 had a period that reached that sort of figure but there can't be that many of those sorts of spells, esp in late December...

Now the question is how far below average can it go?

Ps, FWIW I did what I did above for the rest of the 06z run and it came out at 2.76C...though the last two days does increase the CET somewhat from 2.47C on the 29th...so probably around 2.5C will be the utter lowest limit I'd imagine in reality.

Edited December 18, 2009 by kold weather

[Optimus Prime]

At last we have an update. Manley has updated to 4.7c to the 18th 0.6c below normal. Hadley still mysteriously stuck on the 14th...

[Weather-history]

I am going to be blunt here and the mods may pull me up for this but I think it is about time some people start reading posts in this thread because the Hadley CET is there and yet we are still getting the tired old posts, where is it, where is it?. And its not rocket science to work it out when you know the system. Everything are to the powers of 10 and 100.

[Optimus Prime]

And its not rocket science to work it out when you know the system. Everything are to the powers of 10 and 100.

Yes I know but my PC won't load it up for some strange reason, keeps saying 'Open with' hence why I have to use the HADCET diagnosis site. Default programme Windows media player!

Any idea what file format they use for the individual daily CET?

Edited December 19, 2009 by Optimus Prime