December CET

[kold weather]

Mins so far not nearly as cold generally as the GFs progged, front seems to have spread more cloud out then forecasted, some places are very cold but generally most are around -1/2C at the moment in the CET zone. Still decent amount of time for things to cool further as the front struggles eastwards as to the north in the clearer air we are down to the progged temps, so 3-4hrs more eastward progress may see that region of colder air slip further into the CET zone.

[Optimus Prime]

even the milder spell after Christmas still gives us the period 22nd - 31st an average CET of 2.9c. If this was to come off we'd end up around 3.6c.

I think something similar to the coldest 2 December this century is likeliest. The 2000s would average 4.8c and so much colder then that of the 80s and 70s.

[reef]

Hadley has updated and is now at 4.1C to the 21st. Yesterday came in at exactly 0.0C.

Today's min is down as -3.5C and maxes are severely depressed, so we sould be zub-zero again on tomorrow's update.

[kold weather]

models suggest a warm up to some degree around the 28th-30th which will probably cause a slight upward correction, though even then the models suggest maybe for the last day of the year a northerly coming down...

I'd guess something between 3.4-3.8C looks a good call.

Very cold day as Reef has said away from the SE and the far south, maxes still below 0C so a CET ice day looks nearly odds on IMO.

[stewfox]

As an aside, does anyone reckon we'll manage five sub-zero CET days in a row (provisionally we're on three at the moment)? This hasn't happened since January 2001 - surely the longest such drought in the daily CET series?

Are we not going to be there or does 0 not count ?

[Snowly does it]

Are we not going to be there or does 0 not count ?

Looks like the min was -2.9 and the max +3.0 provisionally so its just over freezing and wouldn't count (zero is not counted in any case even if exact) - however, the dataset will be reviewed at month end and we may find the figure is revised downwards to fall in line.

As it stands we will probably get 6 or 7 days with that irritating zero in the middle spoiling the set...

[AderynCoch]

Are we not going to be there or does 0 not count ?

No, but nevertheless these are only provisional values and could end up lower when made official in January.

Edited December 22, 2009 by AderynCoch

[kold weather]

Looking at the GFS temp profiles, as OP said even the milder air still comes out below average for most of the days though the GFS maybe a little low at times with mins given the cloud cover thats possible.

Still something between 3.3-3.8C looks likely to be the outcome I suspect.

[reef]

Looking at the GFS temp profiles, as OP said even the milder air still comes out below average for most of the days though the GFS maybe a little low at times with mins given the cloud cover thats possible.

Still something between 3.3-3.8C looks likely to be the outcome I suspect.

Its still quite a difficult one to guess at the moment as the GFS seems to want to bring in another weak northerly blast just after christmas. The ECM isnt having any of it yet though. Its certainly going to be sub-4C though. Interesting to have two cold Decembers in a row.

[DAVID SNOW]

Its still quite a difficult one to guess at the moment as the GFS seems to want to bring in another weak northerly blast just after christmas. The ECM isnt having any of it yet though. Its certainly going to be sub-4C though. Interesting to have two cold Decembers in a row.

Make that three, 2007 came in at 4.9

[reef]

Make that three, 2007 came in at 4.9

By cold I meant more than a degree below the average, but as you say, three consecutive below average ones.

[kold weather]

Yep, I wonder if this is our next version of 95-96 and 96-97 coming up, granted a little milder...

Still as you say Reef rather uncertain as to what we will end up with, a milder blip seems likely which probably rules out a sub 3C unless we see decent adjustments but saying all that the latest GFS really does just make it a 48hr blip and so probably a low-middle 3 seems more probable then a high 3 unless the return of cold air doesn't happen at the end of the month.

[Stu_London]

Yep, I wonder if this is our next version of 95-96 and 96-97 coming up, granted a little milder...

Still as you say Reef rather uncertain as to what we will end up with, a milder blip seems likely which probably rules out a sub 3C unless we see decent adjustments but saying all that the latest GFS really does just make it a 48hr blip and so probably a low-middle 3 seems more probable then a high 3 unless the return of cold air doesn't happen at the end of the month.

I wouldn't rule out sub 3 just yet - if the 0z ECM and 06z GFS come anything close to verifying then it will be close i feel.

Also there looks like some recalebrating to be done especially in the context of how Manley is doing so far

[kold weather]

If we see some readjustment then I agree a sub-3 once again becomes possible and I think there could be some reductions needed.

Still I suspect the south will become somewhat too mild for us to get a sub-3 provisonally, the northern most station will no doubt help to reduce the average but I suspect the average will still be just a little bit too high given mins probably won't drop below 2-3C at night in the southern part of the zone...still it could be close I agree Stu, its just nice to be able to talk about having another well below average month!

[Gavin P]

Hadley down to 3.9 to the 22nd Dec;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Its interesting that most of the warmth this year has happened in two months. Generally its been a very average year (which is very cool compared to most since 1997) but April and November are the two that have really done the damage.

Edited December 23, 2009 by Gavin P

[reef]

Hadley down to 3.9 to the 22nd Dec;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Its interesting that most of the warmth this year has happened in two months. Generally its been a very average year (which is very cool compared to most since 1997) but April and November are the two that have really done the damage.

Unfortunately, most of the cold has been concentrated in two months aswell! (January and December)

Im rather suprised Hadley only came in at -0.3C yesterday. The maximum temperatures for the last two days have been 2.8C, 3.0C and 2.9C which seems far too high to me. Theres definitely some scope for a big downwards correction at the end of the month.

[kold weather]

Totally agree Reef, probably see a big correction likw we did on Jan 09 which also had temps dropped lower in the cold spell...we came real close that month to sub 3C and I suspect we will come rather close again once all is said and done.

I'd suspect could be a good 0.3C correction occuring at the end of the month, which will probably be enough to make sure this month comes in 1.5C below normal.

[Nick L]

But two months in one year getting this close to the magical "sub 3c" isn't bad in the so-called "modern e*a"!

Will this lead to a revision in the Met Office winter forecast like last year?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I don't understand corrections at the end of the month. How can they not just get the temperatures right at the time rather than correcting them at the end of the month?

[Polar Gael]

Having view this morning's ECM and GFS charts, I am more and more optimistic that the PG hopeful guestimate for December may actually be in with a shout. It's moving that way by the looks of things.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Its interesting that most of the warmth this year has happened in two months.

March 2009 was also mild and in the eastern 3rd of the UK August 2009 was a very mild month as well.

[Optimus Prime]

How could August possibly be mild?

[Lettucing Gutted]

How could August possibly be mild?

At 16.6C it was 0.8C above the 1961-1990 August average of 15.8C Edited December 23, 2009 by Craig Evans

[Thundery wintry showers]

At Cleadon August was 1.6C above the estimated average for 1971-2000 and 2.0C above that for 1961-1990, making it the warmest August since 1997. Some other eastern coastal parts of England, plus much of East Anglia, reported similar anomalies. The month was, however, near or slightly cooler than average in parts of the west.

[damianslaw]

My 5.3 guess is looking wat out, can see the CET ending up between 3 and 3.5 degrees, making for the coldest Dec since 1996.