Model Output Discussion

[phil nw.]

Forget the GFS run, the model is really struggling. I would expect the ECM to show a progressive pattern from T144 onwards.

In fairness though Ian all models have shown widely different patterns almost daily recently,not one has settled on a trend.

It`s easy to rubbish any model but when they jump around like they have recently it`s usually a reflection of much uncertainty in the upstream evolution rather than poor performance.

We could well get a progressive pattern but not necessarly a Bartlett type one.

I wish you would show some charts to back up your statements so we can all discuss constructively.

[MR EXTREMES]

one thing they all agree on is a pretty average spell temp wise,

what ever is happening upstream is causing massive confusion its very possible that the next 14days could see a dramatic shift.

plently of very cold air bottled to the north not so sure about the rest of europe.

a continued alantic domination looks likely for awhile yet still the start of winter it maybe but theres plenty of time yet,

but id of thought the emc has been the favourate model for awhile.

[shuggee]

Yes GFS is struggling!

[bluearmy]

ECM looing far more realistic than GFS (though not necessarily right). i know which one my money is on.

as ever, some jam in FI, though it never makes it any closer does it ???

[Nick F]

Well ... as shuggee's chart above shows, GFS seems to have taken a nose-dive in the verification stakes.

Looking at the 12z output, GFS seems to make the jet dive further south across SW and Sern Europe than the Euros, with low's undercutting the UK across France - which the Euros don't.

More often than not, in recent years we see these more extreme southerly tracking PFJs progged but not materlising - especially this early in the cold season, so I would be rather cautious with looking too far into what the GFS is showing by t+144 and beyond.

[karyo]

It not just the GFS that has been out drinking! Look at the ECM at 216 hours: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0

It starts with the height rises to the northeast at 192hours but at this range the ECM is just as laughable as any other model.

Karyo

[cooling climate]

ECM comes up with another scenario later in the run. It looks good but can you trust it,

probably not.

[phil nw.]

ECM looing far more realistic than GFS (though not necessarily right). i know which one my money is on.

as ever, some jam in FI, though it never makes it any closer does it ???

To be honest though BA the overall pattern between the 2 is not that far apart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Both show the trough over us and going SE into Europe with inbeded lows nearbythe UK.

Both show the jet still south of theuk

Both entertain Height rises to our NE.

Note i said the pattern is similar not the exact detail at that stage.

In fact at T192 on ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

and GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

So the Rollercoaster is off again,certainly all bets are on again.

Where`s IB?

Just to show the GFS and ECM have a similar trend after all.

[Duane S.]

Whoa!!! the ECM at +216 is a little bit yummy. After a few days of both the GFS and the ECM all but giving up on a strong block, bang, it's back. Even if it doesn't happen it sure is nice to look at.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM FI showing half hearted easterly, and gfs in FI nobody seems to think it will happen? trend is there surely for some kind of cold spell around 7th, Im not after a legendary winter I just wanna see snow! even typical christmas pudding snow like February 1st-5th

[john mac]

Sometimes this forum really does my head in wht do some people on hear consistantly bang on about FI, im sure most people on here are well aware that what showsin F1 stays in F1 and very rarely does it come to fruiation.

Rant over sorry peeps just had to get it off my chest.

[Guest]

Whoa!!! the ECM at +216 is a little bit yummy. After a few days of both the GFS and the ECM all but giving up on a strong block, bang, it's back. Even if it doesn't happen it sure is nice to look at.

It does keep resurfacing every other day or so, which may mean it will eventually happen over the next week or so. I'm sure the models are onto something. I suppose we just have to be patient

[phil nw.]

Whoa!!! the ECM at +216 is a little bit yummy. After a few days of both the GFS and the ECM all but giving up on a strong block, bang, it's back. Even if it doesn't happen it sure is nice to look at.

Yes ECM finishes with a classic Easterly blast,it would be quite cold by then.If only....

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

Could it?

Where`s Steve Murr and TEITS?

Certainly nice to look at but for now it`s in dreamland.

[Snowyowl9]

After seeing last night`s models to todays they are rather different to put it mildly.

ECM has the potential to bring something memorable from this.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2161.gif

GFS well what can I say.

[bluearmy]

To be honest though BA the overall pattern between the 2 is not that far apart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Both show the trough over us and going SE into Europe with inbeded lows nearbythe UK.

Both show the jet still south of theuk

Both entertain Height rises to our NE.

Note i said the pattern is similar not the exact detail at that stage.

In fact at T192 on ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

and GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

not completey different Phil (how different can they be with the major features at t120???)

- but which one looks more likely? that was my point. the output is sniffing around the post xmas evolution hinted at by GP earlier. it was doing the same a week ago. how many times do we have to watch the rollercoaster go around before we can get on it ??? GP may be a week or so long but the models are defo short.

[phil nw.]

I'm a little surprised at the ECM, there is no plausible reason for the evolution from T168 to T192. One thing is for sure, deep troughing in the mid-Atlantic and I would expect that to be given the boost needed to transfer this energy further East and see a pressure rise over Europe.

You keep saying this Ian but why do you think the trough would be given that boost East?

[Guest]

Yes ECM finishes with a classic Easterly blast,it would be quite cold by then.If only....

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

Could it?

Where`s Steve Murr and TEITS?

Certainly nice to look at but for now it`s in dreamland.

Wow! That's my bday and my mum always says that if it's cold and snowy on my birthday it'll be a cold, snowy winter

And she should know she's been on this earth 85 years!

[Nick F]

Sometimes this forum really does my head in wht do some people on hear consistantly bang on about FI, im sure most people on here are well aware that what showsin F1 stays in F1 and very rarely does it come to fruiation.

Rant over sorry peeps just had to get it off my chest.

I totally agree, atm there are differences particularly Euros vs GFS at t+144, so best not to be drawn in by the tantilising easterlies shown by ECM tonight or GFS and assume uncertainty into the medium/long range because FI from previous output was showing mild and before that cold ... FI will often chop and change!

Still the FI rollercoaster is all part of the 'thrill' of model watching to try and guess what the future may hold I guess.

Nice ECM FI though

[cooling climate]

One thing both models( GFS and ECM) agree on is the main part of the vortex transferring

over to the Hudson bay area with a -A0 developing in the high Arctic.

This would gel with the idea of heights increasing to out north and northeast.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm a little surprised at the ECM, there is no plausible reason for the evolution from T168 to T192. One thing is for sure, deep troughing in the mid-Atlantic and I would expect that to be given the boost needed to transfer this energy further East and see a pressure rise over Europe.

sadly Ian most likely yeah

[bluearmy]

I'm a little surprised at the ECM, there is no plausible reason for the evolution from T168 to T192. One thing is for sure, deep troughing in the mid-Atlantic and I would expect that to be given the boost needed to transfer this energy further East and see a pressure rise over Europe.

ian - the models continue to want to drive the trough into europe and raise pressure to the northeast. its a repeating trend and it may take a while before it comes closer than T144. why should your experience and intuitiveness be right and the nwp wrong ??? (by the way, the 'blocking from the north or northeast' may be just as powerful a presence as the energy from the west = undercutting). also, i note the trend for the temp gradient in the states next week to be less severe which may well take the jet back a few notches on what was expected.

[karyo]

I'm a little surprised at the ECM, there is no plausible reason for the evolution from T168 to T192. One thing is for sure, deep troughing in the mid-Atlantic and I would expect that to be given the boost needed to transfer this energy further East and see a pressure rise over Europe.

In this case, I agree with you. At this range, the models can be too keen in pushing the lows east over the continent but more often than not this doesn't materialise! They stay further west or over the UK and we are trapped in a mild or average temperature-wise pattern.

Anyway, at least it is something nice to look and certainly made the forum busy!You never know, it might just happen!

Karyo

[NorthantsSnow]

Forget the GFS run, the model is really struggling. I would expect the ECM to show a progressive pattern from T144 onwards.

Not quite. I don't expect your thoughts for the upcoming winter to be much closer to the mark in all honesty.

The ECM is giving people something to think about tonight. Very funny how it came about just as everyone was attacking the GFS for its accuracy! (it dared to show something cold again, uh-oh) Quite a hoot though I have to say.

[Alex95]

The main thing is that there is some sort of agreement forming between the models about the trough heading into Europe and height rises to the north, whether this takes hold or gets pushed away by the Atlantic is yet to be seen, but the current outlook looks tantalisingly similar to Joe B's winter forecast video a month or so ago The main problem if good synoptics do actually make it into the reliable time frame is the lack of cold pooling across Europe.

ECM FI looks very similar to February 2001 and I'm sure many remember how close that was to heaven

[phil nw.]

not completey different Phil (how different can they be with the major features at t120???)

- but which one looks more likely? that was my point. the output is sniffing around the post xmas evolution hinted at by GP earlier. it was doing the same a week ago. how many times do we have to watch the rollercoaster go around before we can get on it ??? GP may be a week or so long but the models are defo short.

Hi BA,

I was trying to convey the point that because GFS and ECM have a similar pattern atT120hrs ,and indeed further out, it would be unfair to rubbish the GFS12z in isolation.

Maybe tomorrow we will see the models drop the Easterly again,so be it.

As i said earlier there must be much uncertainty upstream and the models will show different ideas ,drop them and pick them up again.

They certainly keep toying with the Easterly.Maybe they will drop it again but getting on and off the rollercoaster is part of the cold lovers dream.

Regards,Phil