Model Output Discussion

[Richie V]

Putting all the FI cold aside for a while. I really think the approaching LP at 120hrs could cause a few problems. It only needs to be 100 - 150 miles further east which could be pretty serious. This needs watching!

[Shunter]

EDIT 18Z has a MINIMUM of 13 degrees on the south coast next wed,IF that were

to come off it would be most certainly classed as blowtorch.

Yes ....and this type of mild incursion is often the prelude to a major cold blast

[Frosty.]

Yes ....and this type of mild incursion is often the prelude to a major cold blast

Is it

[Richie V]

Face it, for now wind and rain are firmly in controll. Often very windy and Increadibly mild.

[Cloud 10]

FI not quite as good on tonights 18z.

The pattern upto +168 remains pretty much the same though.

[Shunter]

Interestingly... the 06z operational GFS was totally rejected by NOAA today in their discussions.

"THE 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN ITS GFS

PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST DAY AND OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SO IT WAS

DISCOUNTED TODAY."

Model of the day - 0z ECM ensembles. Confidence high ( 4 out of 5 ).

I would say we might just see a different GFS solution tomorrow

[Frosty.]

Face it, for now wind and rain are firmly in controll. Often very windy and Increadibly mild.

Let's face it, we are used to that in the uk in winter, nothing new there. I don't think I can remember an autumn / early winter season like this one with barely a frost or snow worth a mention. The 18z just gives us a lp conveyor belt of the usual. If you want cold, it's where it usually is...Russia

[karyo]

Interestingly... the 06z operational GFS was totally rejected by NOAA today in their discussions.

"THE 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN ITS GFS

PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST DAY AND OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SO IT WAS

DISCOUNTED TODAY."

Model of the day - 0z ECM ensembles. Confidence high ( 4 out of 5 ).

I would say we might just see a different GFS solution tomorrow

This certainly doesn't sound good as the 6z was by far the coldest!

Karyo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Interestingly... the 06z operational GFS was totally rejected by NOAA today in their discussions.

"THE 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN ITS GFS

PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST DAY AND OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SO IT WAS

DISCOUNTED TODAY."

Model of the day - 0z ECM ensembles. Confidence high ( 4 out of 5 ).

I would say we might just see a different GFS solution tomorrow

I disagree,the models look to be firming up on the complete opposite imo.

A period of wet windy and often mild weather os on the way as far as i can see.

Hopefully a better day tomorrow because today has been woeful.

[Mark H]

The output is looking very ominous tonight,a quick mention for IB who has called it pretty damn well so far.

EDIT 18Z has a MINIMUM of 13 degrees on the south coast next wed,IF that were

to come off it would be most certainly classed as blowtorch.

If i remember correctly Ian Brown called for one of he mildest Decembers of recent times,and as its only the 2nd of the month i think its a little early for that sort of comment on his forecast. If any plaudits are due then they must surely go to Glacier Point who has been banging on about the longwave trough sitting just to our west for weeks now,the only thing modern about his forecasts are the highly technical methods used,and as he has stated it looks like we will be in this pattern until at least the middle of the month.

[damianslaw]

Let's face it, we are used to that in the uk in winter, nothing new there. I don't think I can remember an autumn / early winter season like this one with barely a frost or snow worth a mention. The 18z just gives us a lp conveyor belt of the usual. If you want cold, it's where it usually is...Russia

Not sure where you have been the past two or three days but it has been far from mild, many places Monday morning woke up to a frost with widespread mins of -3 degrees and we have had plenty of snow in hilly regions over the past few days..

Also, I can name many years when late autumn/early winter has been plagued by mild unsettled conditions, in fact its the norm for this time of year. Perhaps what has been frustrated granted has been the absence of any real protracted cold spell so far this season, with the second half of Nov apart from the tail end being exceptionally mild.

[Duane S.]

Hi,it would be very difficult for any scandy high to resist the bombs being progged by the models.

The problem we have is that the high will not get far enough west to influence our weather and we are basically

a sitting duck as far as these depressions are concerned.

The output is looking very ominous tonight,a quick mention for IB who has called it pretty damn well so far.

EDIT 18Z has a MINIMUM of 13 degrees on the south coast next wed,IF that were

to come off it would be most certainly classed as blowtorch.

Sorry, can't let that pass. Nothing has actually occured yet but somehow the man who has called for the highest December CET since 1988 gets some credit,

The models have shown just about every scenario possible over the past week or so and will revert back to another spell of cold forecasts during the next 48 hours no doubt. There looks like there will be a lot of pent up cold 'on tap' in about 10 days time, IMO the likelhood is that this will be for Eastern Europe, Western Russia but we have an outside chance of copping for it. Also, I think that once (if) it does flood southwards there will be more than one bite at it..

[karyo]

If i remember correctly Ian Brown called for one of he mildest Decembers of recent times,and as its only the 2nd of the month i think its a little early for that sort of comment on his forecast. If any plaudits are due then they must surely go to Glacier Point who has been banging on about the longwave trough sitting just to our west for weeks now,the only thing modern about his forecasts are the highly technical methods used,and as he has stated it looks like we will be in this pattern until at least the middle of the month.

I totally agree with your comment about GP. He is not getting carried away every time the models show crazy easterlies!

Karyo

[Frosty.]

Not sure where you have been the past two or three days but it has been far from mild, many places Monday morning woke up to a frost with widespread mins of -3 degrees and we have had plenty of snow in hilly regions over the past few days..

Also, I can name many years when late autumn/early winter has been plagued by mild unsettled conditions, in fact its the norm for this time of year. Perhaps what has been frustrated granted has been the absence of any real protracted cold spell so far this season, with the second half of Nov apart from the tail end being exceptionally mild.

I'm talking about the autumn overall, it's been v.mild with barely a frost, the cold snaps a year ago were far more potent. The models today have ended with just another prolonged mild and miserable spell ahead of us, back to square 1

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Sorry, can't let that pass. Nothing has actually occured yet but somehow the man who has called for the highest December CET since 1988 gets some credit,

The models have shown just about every scenario possible over the past week or so and will revert back to another spell of cold forecasts during the next 48 hours no doubt. There looks like there will be a lot of pent up cold 'on tap' in about 10 days time, IMO the likelhood is that this will be for Eastern Europe, Western Russia but we have an outside chance of copping for it. Also, I think that once (if) it does flood southwards there will be more than one bite at it..

Thats fair enough and im no fan of the even larger teapot phrase but i belive Ian called for a firing up of the

jet and heights over Europe as we head into Dec,at the moment it looks a damn good call.

[MR EXTREMES]

Thats fair enough and im no fan of the even larger teapot phrase but i belive Ian called for a firing up of the

jet and heights over Europe as we head into Dec,at the moment it looks a damn good call.

yep its looking this way even gp is likely to say this type of weather is likely for the medium term at least.

[karyo]

I'm talking about the autumn overall, it's been v.mild with barely a frost, the cold snaps a year ago were far more potent.

I normally love autumn but this one is perhaps the worst I can remember! A far cry from last year for sure!

Karyo

[Duane S.]

I totally agree with your comment about GP. He is not getting carried away every time the models show crazy easterlies!

Karyo

+1 on that. I've got the highest respect for GP who is rarely far off the mark. Anybody new to the forum should be reading his posts as a matter of priority. Even if you don't understand it all (I don't) you will be able to glean the gist of his projections and more importantly how he came to them!

[nick sussex]

The only thing that can be said about the gfs FI is that it's a complete mess which is a good sign IMO. There really is no difference in the output today, the only thing missing is one of gfs famous wintry scenarios at T-384hrs, , NOAA have rubbished the last 4 gfs operationals so when USA forecasters criticize their own stateside model and don't use this for their extended outlook then why oh why do people obsess over each run!

It just doesn't make sense, overall the trend today is no different, trough near the uk, trough finally fills meanders around for a while, arctic high pressure tries to edge sw'wards, that's it, we have no easterly yet and this hasn't been shown in any model apart from the gfs and at a timeframe where we know reliability is almost zero!

Nothing can happen until the jet weakens and the trough fills, this is far more important than the gfs at T-384hrs, like that old saying you can't build a house on dodgy foundations which is the perfect way of viewing the model output. Best at the moment to keep an eye on the teleconnections and just the general trend, detail in FI which is crucial for any cold to reach the UK is impossible at this stage.

[The watcher]

+1 on that. I've got the highest respect for GP who is rarely far off the mark. Anybody new to the forum should be reading his posts as a matter of priority. Even if you don't understand it all (I don't) you will be able to glean the gist of his projections and more importantly how he came to them!

I also agree, one of the things I most look forward to when I first log on in the mornings is having a nice cuppa and reading GP's, Chionomaiac, BFTP and Steve Murrs posts. What intrigues me most is the teleconnections, such a powerful prediction knowledge to have in meteorology. I never understood the half of it at first, but in the last few months I have certainly started to grasp the knowledge and understand what it all means. Teleconnections can't give us accurate temperature, SLP and rainfall data, but it is the perfect way to identify what patterns are the most likely to prevail or what trends we can expect to form, from this we can draw a picture of the overall weather patterns the UK can expect upto 10 days ahead and sometimes more. Although, being the weather, it can still be wrong, but the success rate via teleconnections is far more confident I'd like to think.

I seen someone earlier mention about the Trough heading Northeast towards a finger of the Arctic High?

To my knowledge (as I heard someone mention before) a cold airmass has more stay power than a milder, certainly in cases were the Jet is in Weak - Moderate strength. In an atlantic with alot of energy though, it would be a battle in which either could win out.

P.S, may I just congratulate myself for coming 1st in the Autumn Seasonal CET list...must say I was very surprised, but indeed I had myself a nice glass of whisky to celebrate. I'm very much looking forward to the next 12 months upto November next year and hoping to get myself in the Top 10 for the yearly CET guesses.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

+1 on that. I've got the highest respect for GP who is rarely far off the mark. Anybody new to the forum should be reading his posts as a matter of priority. Even if you don't understand it all (I don't) you will be able to glean the gist of his projections and more importantly how he came to them!

Agreed very much

Something I have been doing for a couple of years or so now, maybe more. Even though I am especially frustrated with the awful weather pattern that is being carried over from a dreadful November, and have very recently expressed as such (unusually for me I would like to say) although I do think that we may have to forfeit the first few weeks or so of winter at least I think that prospects for the New Year and beyond have a lot of promise. Again as I said the other day - even the coldest winters often don't get going till the end of December and sometimes later than that. 1978/79 jumped into life at the end of the month and the infamous spell of 1987 happened as we know at the turn of the second week of Jan.

Edited December 2, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[phil nw.]

The only thing that can be said about the gfs FI is that it's a complete mess which is a good sign IMO. There really is no difference in the output today, the only thing missing is one of gfs famous wintry scenarios at T-384hrs, , NOAA have rubbished the last 4 gfs operationals so when USA forecasters criticize their own stateside model and don't use this for their extended outlook then why oh why do people obsess over each run!

It just doesn't make sense, overall the trend today is no different, trough near the uk, trough finally fills meanders around for a while, arctic high pressure tries to edge sw'wards, that's it, we have no easterly yet and this hasn't been shown in any model apart from the gfs and at a timeframe where we know reliability is almost zero!

Nothing can happen until the jet weakens and the trough fills, this is far more important than the gfs at T-384hrs, like that old saying you can't build a house on dodgy foundations which is the perfect way of viewing the model output. Best at the moment to keep an eye on the teleconnections and just the general trend, detail in FI which is crucial for any cold to reach the UK is impossible at this stage.

Hi Nick,

Good post Nick.

I agree.The unsettled Atlantic driven pattern with temps close to norm were always shown into next week.

I posted earlier myself that any pattern changes were not promised until around 10 days time.

The Ens. still show plenty of support after day6 for colder weather,in fact,50/50 split in the members onthe12z.

[nick sussex]

Hi Nick,

Good post Nick.

I agree.The unsettled Atlantic driven pattern with temps close to norm were always shown into next week.

I posted earlier myself that any pattern changes were not promised until around 10 days time.

The Ens. still show plenty of support after day6 for colder weather,in fact,50/50 split in the members onthe12z.

Thanks Phil

Yes the ensembles don't look too bad, having looked at those for eastern europe and Russia there is good support there for a very cold plunge, now the problem of how to back that cold westwards,its always a tall order!

Sometimes we see the coldest air miss the UK to the south but just going off the ensembles and overall pattern any high looks like being at least orientated favourably as we see very few much colder ensemble members for southern europe, so its a question of it extending far enough west. We have to bear in mind the amount of near misses in the past and so the success rate is low, i think more so with the Arctic high although the pay off is of course this brings the coldest possible air.

Edited December 2, 2009 by nick sussex

[kold weather]

Whats very interesting is the models have really backed away from building any real heights to our NE/E, compared with just yesterdays model outputs all we now see is a surface reflection being driven mainly by a powerful Atlantic.

What gives me some hope still is the tendency for the upper low to spit out cut-off lows into S.Europe. I suspect with the way the models are going we are going to need to go a different route to cold then we thought, a route we've become rather more used too in recent years and thats through a high building close to the UK and managing to get enough forcing to focus the upper high nearby the UK...IF that doesn't happen, then we'll be in bartlett territory...

Still given we are in a decent strength El Nino these models don't fill me with huge hopes, the Atlantic tends to nearly always be strong for a big chunk of the winter, don't expect to see it easing much, if at all till Feb, regardless of the state of the PV...

Also for all those who are mentioning -ve AO, sadly that is at best only a guide. A great example I use is Jan 1998, which had one of the most -ve AO's since the late 70s but the El nino was a bigger player in dictating the synoptics...2003-2004 also saw a very -ve AO and once again we struggled with getting cold down at times.

Edited December 3, 2009 by kold weather

[Iceni]

Agreed very much

Something I have been doing for a couple of years or so now, maybe more. Even though I am especially frustrated with the awful weather pattern that is being carried over from a dreadful November, and have very recently expressed as such (unusually for me I would like to say) although I do think that we may have to forfeit the first few weeks or so of winter at least I think that prospects for the New Year and beyond have a lot of promise. Again as I said the other day - even the coldest winters often don't get going till the end of December and sometimes later than that. 1978/79 jumped into life at the end of the month and the infamous spell of 1987 happened as we know at the turn of the second week of Jan.

Worth remembering that we had to wait until the 26th December in 1962 — I can't remember what the autumn or first few weeks of December was like, so it was probably unremarkable. I do remember as an 11 year old staring through the french windows on Boxing Day evening and watching the first of the snow that was going to last until 8th March 1963.