Model Output Discussion

[The Eagle]

Just because we have not seen synoptics as good as this since 95 or 81 does not make it unrealistic.

UKMO has better ridging because it has done away with the shortwave on the GFS run at t144 around

Greenland.

Therefore I think the UKMO would lead to an even colder run than the GFS.

The UKMO could also just collapse the HP. The ECM should give a much better idea of where we stand.

[Alex95]

right OK if this run comes good where is likely the best area in the UK for snow based on this run

Most places would get a good dumping from these charts, I think the North east would do best at first, but later on places such as East Anglia would also get very large falls of snow. Not that I'd place all my hopes on one run, especially GFS FI

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

When does the ecm 12z come out?, little excited here.

[Dingwantssnow]

Well im just hoping that if it does come off ill get some decent snow fall in my area.

[weather eater]

Well, I'm two thirds of the way down a bottle of finest Rioja, but that's a chart of an enormous potential.

Lord Ian don’t you start ramping, your supposed to be the voice of caution not to mention doom.

[Ben_Cambs]

Im not going to get excited too much yet, being in the East though

[bluearmy]

ens still not getting it with the mean upper -6c not quite reaching the dutch/german border.

[Methuselah]

Thou shalt not ramp!

[MR EXTREMES]

People in here abviously love the torture of the rollercoaster, we're definitely not at the station yet though and we have a couple more laps to go.

Basically yes the UKMO is showing something that may pass off as an easterly but there's no way of knowing whether it would bring cold air at that point, I know inversion will be mentioned but no one actually knows that yet, plus we don't know what will happen after (unless someone can produce extended UKMO). The UKMO is not 'on board' it is one run that could easily be an outlier in its ensemble set or equally change tomorrow.

I still stick by the suggestion that FI is jusy toying around with us, and I'm not convinced anything anywhere near that will occur.

however the 'parallel run' has been rather consistent, and if it does turn out that this easterly spell comes off then that is potentially a major move forward in model accuracy.

However yes may be I'm the only one but I'm not convinced and I'm not going to get dragged into the excitement.

The only way I'll get excited is if the GFS, UKMO, ECM all have the same pattern showing within 144 hours and it is an easterly pattern with bottled up very cold air. I simply cannot get excited if the models are all showing different patterns even if they are all point to cold.

yep i agree totally.

[Geordiesnow]

I'm glad too see the GFS/UKMO have decided to turn there backs on the idea of the high not ridging far enough North as per yesterday's 12Z GFS run in particular.

It's all about one step at a time though, first step is getting the high over us and that looks likely, next step would be for it to ridge as far North as possible without any spoilers regarding shortwaves. It's going to be a little while yet before we know for sure if the real cold air will make it this far westwards. This is why i'm not fussed what the ensembles say although it would be nice if there is more cold runs than mild.

Without doubt today's runs so far has been an improvment to yesterdays output but we still have to wait and see what the ECM and GFS 18Z has to offer before we can fully class today as a good day if your a cold lover.

[cooling climate]

The UKMO could also just collapse the HP. The ECM should give a much better idea of where we stand.

Not in a month of Sundays.

[glasgow-guy]

i am praying this dumps the mother load in my area

[Nick L]

When does the ecm 12z come out?, little excited here.

Should start trickling out at about 6ish. Here is one for your bookmarks, the daily model timetable:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/25253-daily-chart-timetable/

[Ben_Cambs]

The 12z run will be very interesting indeed

Edited December 6, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Should start trickling out at about 6ish. Here is one for your bookmarks, the daily model timetable:

http://forum.netweat...hart-timetable/

Thank you, just added it

[Mark Bayley]

GFS ensembles are not great but they are perhaps a minor improvement

Before

After

Nice to see the control and operation close together

So far tonight

Superb GFS op and parallel

UKMO also very good (shame it doesn't go out further)

Ensembles are not great but perhaps a minor improvement

Lets see what the ECM has to say

Edited December 6, 2009 by mark bayley

[SP1986]

Ensembles still showing 12z FI as one of the coldest ensembles although not an outlier as such but that's irrelevant really looking at it!

850's

Now I know you cant look at 2m temperatures and there is no huge trend here but to my mind this brings out that one set of ensembles have agreement towards average temperatures, and one set suggest in inversion (ignoring the operational/control)

[kold weather]

Wow the 12z UKMO is really progressive, there can be no doubt that we'd get a easterly from that set-up, you can see the upper heights already bending a little to the west at the 144hrs chart and I'd suspect we'd see that continue.

Anyway still time for this to go very wrong BUT I think its quite probable the first step in the evolution is very close to being nailed on now with the high developing at 96hrs.

[guitarnutter]

Bin that run, how can we trust it with the op far away from the rest of them right at the start?

Edited December 6, 2009 by guitarnutter

[Nick L]

Bin that run, how can we trust it with ensembles like this?

How can a model run possibly be an outlier at +0?!

Edited December 6, 2009 by nick2702

[Big Innes Madori]

Well, GG...with winds in the ENE and sub -10C uppers (I know it'll never happen?? ) I would be quietly confident...Snow showers running along the Forth-Clyde Valley???

Steady on Pete!

You'll be getting Big Innes excited with talk like that

Some good reading in here this evening from the big guns though

Big Innes

[reef]

An impressive GFS 12z, the building blocks are there, but the movement of the shortwave in the Svalbard region around T+180 is total nonsense if we're being honest. Nice eye candy however, I especially loved this:

I dont think Ive ever seen such a pronounced southerly tracking polar front jet.

[bluearmy]

T2m temps always start like that. no worries about initialisation on the 12z GFS

[kold weather]

The Ensembles in this set-up will be led by the operational models without a doubt IMO.

Thats not to say I think the 12z is right, its suggesting a far more cyclonic version of cold then most of the other cold model runs we've have suggested but the ensembles seem at odds with the evolution of the high after 96hrs with the rest of the operational models.

Still the ones that do follow the 12z ops general evolution look decent enough, cold thats for sure!

[shuggee]

Bin that run, how can we trust it with the op far away from the rest of them right at the start?

How can a model run possibly be an outlier at +0?!

Because the operational runs at a higher resolution to all other ensemble members and is therefore more accurate up to T+192.