Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->

[TEITS]

Something else that needs to be taken into account although im wary of mentioning it as I don't want to put a jinx on the cold spell!

However the time of year and the fact that our Autumn has been very mild could result in some amazing snowfalls if the -10 to -15C upper temps arrive. During the Autumn we have seen a general lack of N,lys and because of this convective snowfall could be much heavier especially across E Anglia/SE than if this synoptic set up arrived in Feb.

Obviously this is something we need to look at if the models continue with a similiar output.

[chionomaniac]

I think we can all see now what proper Model Watching is all about, this site has been here for 7 years next February 27th and in all that time we have NEVER Seen a Possible Set-Up like what these charts are showing, it just goes to show what garbage and straw clutching we went through at times when the SW Dominated Winters gave us a 2-3 day cold snap and snow melting before Lunchtime once during January and a few times in February. I really hope this comes off because most of the members on here simply do not remember what real winter Cold spells are like, I am talking 78/79 - 1981 - 1982 - 1984 - 1986 - 1987 and 1991

These charts are reminiscent to the Archived charts from wetterzentrale that we gaze over and dream about our 14 days of snow on the ground and 10 foot drifts.

Just savour these and hope it does not all go pear shaped.

Paul S

Well said Paul,

And if it all comes off I may even write a book. Now what shall I call it?

Copenhagen Ensembles:

c

Ps that is not what I would call my book, I was just looking to see how cold the climate change summit would be!

Edited December 9, 2009 by chionomaniac

[Mark Bayley]

NOGAPS model is also fanatastic!!

So far some excellent models tonight with some very wintry weather very possible, still a few things could go wrong as KW has mentioned but overall odds favour something very good Being only 17 this is going to be something i have never experienced before, so should be interesting! I'm used to seeing 10cm snowfalls max!

ECM should (touch wood) be good tonight

[ChartViewer]

I think we can all see now what proper Model Watching is all about, this site has been here for 7 years next February 27th and in all that time we have NEVER Seen a Possible Set-Up like what these charts are showing, it just goes to show what garbage and straw clutching we went through at times when the SW Dominated Winters gave us a 2-3 day cold snap and snow melting before Lunchtime once during January and a few times in February. I really hope this comes off because most of the members on here simply do not remember what real winter Cold spells are like, I am talking 78/79 - 1981 - 1982 - 1984 - 1986 - 1987 and 1991

These charts are reminiscent to the Archived charts from wetterzentrale that we gaze over and dream about our 14 days of snow on the ground and 10 foot drifts.

Just savour these and hope it does not all go pear shaped.

Paul S

Well said PS. To see YELLOW True GH, -AO, NE Blasts com ing in Mid December with possible warming

events meaning more Blocking come Mid Jan is for those who havnt been here the full time absolutely

wonderful.........The parallel GFS at T168 is my chart of the day but not to see Bartletts, SW's

is someting even I have been sceptical of seeing again. I am so glad I seem to be wrong and as

you say...Please dont go the way of the pear now otherwise I suspect many of us will scream!

These are synoptics to savour......

[kold weather]

Pretty amazing Nogaps there, though it is a lesser model for sure.

Most models show an attmept at an Atlantic attack from the SW but most have the jet too far south with the SW to our NE beocming absorbed as it comes through allowing the Atlantic low to pull to our south.

Ensembles certainly are amazing, there are still ways it could go wrong though that I can see, the main way is if the Atlantic low is too strong and absorbs the SW too quick;y before it can spread in the coldest air.

[MR EXTREMES]

maybe your remove this i dont know.

but there was a fella some weeks ago who done a winter forecast he was only young.

but he maybe very close to a good forecast for december.

[londonsnow]

it is ironic that with i think 192 countries lined up to discuss global warming in denmark, we are poised for a dose of real cold in europe

[winter watcher]

Only had a brief look at the models but dare I say we are slowly starting to see a clear trend with these models.

In summary it looks as though come Sun/Mon we are going to see an E,ly set in with possible wintry showers. However this is only the starter before the main course because from +144 +192 we see the main course tracking S down the North Sea and behind this is some bitter cold and where some serious snowfall could occur.

Who cares about the dessert!

Agreed Teits my personal assumption is that it will catch alot out. I mentioned a little while ago i was at work this morning doing the early turn. I work for a main rail company in surrey and we had a fax from the met office around 11:30am and it said that the weather will turn colder this weekend and into next week their is a very high chance that this spell will develop into a severe cold outbreak. They advised our depot to be stocked up with gritting salt which i had to put in a order for arrives tommrow night. It did also say their is a very high chance that snow and ice will cause problems but they will send further updates after the weekend. Just a thought it would be very good to see low temps first too enable the snow if it falls to stick i,e ground temps. I think we could actually top febuary and i recieved a metere off it last febuary. Let the good times roll this is what we have all been waiting for years on end.

[kold weather]

Copenhagen looks like getting a real severe spell of weather, we are in a position where its still probably no better then 50-50 as to whether we can trap into the really severe stuff, however with Europe being sooo cold to our east any flow from the general direction is going to be pretty bitter, probably sub-zero even I'd imagine as we see quite clearly demonstrated on the 12z GFS. Also I really think odds are decent for somewhere to get a very severe snow event, a lot of the ensembles attack the UK from th SW but get kept either at the south or in the channel. A few however do get further north and instead give N.England/Scotland a monster snowfall...so just about anything could yet happen.

We just need to get that shortwave to the south of the UK, as long as that happens then we will tap into the much colder stuff...then beyond that if we can get a LP to our south over Europe we could tap into a ESE, which in this situation would probably give the coldest temps since at least 96-97, if not 90-91.

[MR EXTREMES]

it is ironic that with i think 192 countries lined up to discuss global warming in denmark, we are poised for a dose of real cold in europe

whilst in a resession and the last time it was cold.

cant wait for the ecm i reckon its gonna party along.

[Duane S.]

I really don't want to ramp (I'm not allowed to anyhow) but this really is now starting to look like the real deal. I don't think anybody is expecting a 1962/3 cold spelll but I haven't seen charts like these in the years I've been 'model watching' on here. If I wanted a fix I had to go to Wetterzentale and open the archive.

What makes me genuinely hopeful we are on the cusp of something very different is the behaviour of the models. Remarkably consistent. Some newbies might not think they are but in terms of what I and others have had to endure at times on here, this is consistent trust me. Anybody else thought how ironic that the most consistent performer, the GFS parallel, is due to come on board pretty much smack on T+0!!

One thing we won't have to worry about the strength of the sun, unlike other ones that occur in Feb and March.

IF this happens it blows away a lot of theories, this is December it shouldn't be able to.

I assume the ECM has started to come out, haven't checked yet, hope I haven't cursed it.

Edited December 9, 2009 by s4lancia

[Neilsouth]

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

Here's Gme , pretty good if you ask me

[pyrotech]

Very exciting times ahead.

Regarding the models and windchill i mentioned that in another thread. Same too of the climate conference and what the models are showing for them there.

What GFS shows should allow some pretty red faces if the media latch on that some heads of states get snowed and frozen in.

There is more about those subjects in the link below and partial reasons for this cold spell - (Forecast in September)So will not fill the model thread with that and if you want to read it its here

For all those that condemn old GFS and its Fi remember this week. The cold trend was picked up very early and it pretty much stuck with it.

There is time for a UK downgrade but i think a upgrade is more likely. In that the cold will be prolonged and sustained.

Thats chapter 2 then when will Atlantic fight back. My opinion is not so quickly due to stratosphere warming ang good heights starting to appear. ANY MILD SPELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED imho.

[Neilsouth]

And we're off and running with today's ECM12z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.html

[mcweather]

I think we can all see now what proper Model Watching is all about, this site has been here for 7 years next February 27th and in all that time we have NEVER Seen a Possible Set-Up like what these charts are showing, it just goes to show what garbage and straw clutching we went through at times when the SW Dominated Winters gave us a 2-3 day cold snap and snow melting before Lunchtime once during January and a few times in February. I really hope this comes off because most of the members on here simply do not remember what real winter Cold spells are like, I am talking 78/79 - 1981 - 1982 - 1984 - 1986 - 1987 and 1991

These charts are reminiscent to the Archived charts from wetterzentrale that we gaze over and dream about our 14 days of snow on the ground and 10 foot drifts.

Just savour these and hope it does not all go pear shaped.

Paul S

I couldn't have put it better myself Paul.

Being almost 50 years old I have often felt something almost akin to a sense of guilt about having lived though synoptics like these in the classic winters of the past whilst so many of our younger members have had to endure the weedy winters of the last however many years. This as you say is what model watching is really all about.

Nice to see that again the vast majority of the gfs 12z ensembles want to keep it cold and snowy right through to christmas and beyond.

[SMU]

Shortwave over SE greenland slightly more visible on the ECM- UKMO had it as well- this I think is our trigger low 2/3 days later-I hope it doesnt disrupt the WAA on the westerm flank-

S

Edited December 9, 2009 by Steve Murr

[winter watcher]

And we're off and running with today's ECM12z

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm721.html

Major run for me if it says yep were going to get it then we are 95% there for me and this forum is going to go balistic..... We hold our breath and smoke our cigs on the edge off our seats.

A meter of snow! I think you got that a bit wrong

Just ask sm and gp i had the very heavy precip under me for hours i have a few pics to prove it.

[WhiteXmas]

this is what we have all been waiting for years on end.

What was it again that I predicted last year? :lol: :lol: :lol:

[weather eater]

Must draw attention to the GFS parallel run again, it’s just been so consistent with this evolution, while other runs from the major 3 have seemingly blinked once or twice in the eye of the storm, the parallel has not wavered. Only another 36 hrs or so to go and the high will be right over us, tomorrow night should see the first frost of many, we hope.

[Lewis]

What was it again that I predicted last year? :lol: :lol:

Not exactly on topic, some of these posts are going way off topic and are making it hard for me to keep up.

KoldWeather's posts are fantastic! Informative time after time, also John Holmes latest take on things look very promising indeed.

I hope the ECM throws a stonker for us :lol: I'm getting really excited now

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

............ and 10 foot drifts.

Just savour these and hope it does not all go pear shaped.

Paul S

Could it actually happen ??? I honestly didn't think I'd ever see a setup where my moniker might ring true !!!

That 12Z is enough to bring a tear to the eye, but as everyone says, the real action is still FI, and as we know, many a slip 'twixt cup and lip

Will the ECM keep up the good work though - it's never going to match the 12Z, but anything there or thereabouts will do.

[SMU]

sadly- across the whole model agreement today I would trade them all for a great stella ECM- pity that isnt going to be the case-

I hope this isnt going to be spoilt at the 11th hour-

S

[Neilsouth]

not as cold as the last run :lol: , looks messy... wouldn't expect a great cold spell from this

Edited December 9, 2009 by neilsouth

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

looks ok to me

[WhiteXmas]

Not exactly on topic, some of these posts are going way off topic and are making it hard for me to keep up.

Last year I predicted a significant increase in severity of cold spells in the next couple of years after I noticed a cycle of increasing and decreasing temperatures. I told everyone last year BEFORE winter that we were entering a new era of winters and we would once again see the sort of winters that happened 30/40 years ago. It's slightly annoying as I was dismissed when I said it.

Sorry this is off topic so I will continue back on topic now and continue by saying that some of these charts show some exceptional cold to our North East. If it reaches our shores we could be in for something special though I still think we need another couple of days of model runs to see anything more concrete in terms of detail.

Edited December 9, 2009 by WhiteXmas