Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->

[MR EXTREMES]

not as cold as the last run :lol: , looks messy... wouldn't expect a great cold spell from this

http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?09-0

maybe a wobble but that does look like a pretty big downgrade.:lol:

[Harsh Climate]

maybe a wobble but that does look like a pretty big downgrade.:lol:

No major cold was ever expected by monday, its what happens after then that really matters.

[kold weather]

ECM certainly not looking as good as it did on its 0z run at the moment, general trend is still there but the shortwave lacks real punch and just looks so flabby.

Anyway, the ECM has flipped and flopped all over the place, its been real inconsistant so I'm not all that worried about it for now, if it shows similar results on its 0z then once again it'll be time to be a little more concerned.

[Lewis]

this ecm will be fine in FI, but a milder outlier in reliable time frame. I hope anyhow.

Generally the ECM upto 5days out is the most consistent, with the UKMO close behind it, GFS is better for "now casting" and its more supportive of short wave developments etc, although the GFS handles things better in FI.

So, i have to agree with the ECM now from now until Monday unless anything changes, but i'll keep a close eye on the ECM in FI.

[WhiteXmas]

The GFS has been really consistent in its runs. Last year it was all over the place at times if I am not mistaken. Is it not a case of role reversal for the GFS and ECM this year?

[Lewis]

The GFS has been really consistent in its runs. Last year it was all over the place at times if I am not mistaken. Is it not a case of role reversal for the GFS and ECM this year?

We cant really tell whats consistent can we, tbh we can only tell after we have had the output sypnotics, same could be said for the UKMO, etc.

Its the first possible cold spell for ages, and i have not seen models showing fantastic blocking, so it would be impossible to stick a consistency sticker on either model.

Edited December 9, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Monday seems to have upgraded on gfs 12Z showing snow flurries as early as 6am for midlands, after then well and truly FI but its shortwave hell! think if that happens snow restricted to hills

[Whether Idle]

Monday is still 120 hours away, so much will change for that date in the models over the next 24 hours.

[Neilsouth]

ECM 12z at T144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

ps ECM upto 5days has not been the most consistent,

[bluearmy]

if you can bear the wait, at least you'll get exeter's take on the ecm evolution with the T120 FAX later on.

[Shirelord]

The GFS has been really consistent in its runs. Last year it was all over the place at times if I am not mistaken. Is it not a case of role reversal for the GFS and ECM this year?

There is, of course, the possibility that GFS has been consistently wrong.

Certainly less retrogression on the ECM tonight, and in danger of being a UK high...we'll have to see how it fits on the ensembles.

[Lewis]

ECM 12z at T144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

ps ECM upto 5days has not been the most consistent,

I don't agree sorry,

How can you say the ECM has been the less consistent when no models have had to plot/output this scenario. I can understand when it comes to LP pushing in off the Atlantic.

[weather eater]

I think if you look over all the recent model runs, bar maybe the parallel, they have all struggled to nail the 120hr - 144hr period, the overall theme is the same but the details keep changing.

[WhiteXmas]

I understand what you are saying Lewis however it is amazing the differences in one run to another at times. It can be a total contrast to what it had been suggesting previously. This was particularly the case last year however there has been more general agreement at the start of this winter between the models which is a really good sign. I wonder what the cause of this is?

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

It may not be a bad thing that the high is further north and more stubborn to move over to greenland, as on recent runs the high has been pushed too far north :lol:

[kold weather]

The ECM really doesn't do anything with the intial shortwave, only takes it barely down as a closed circulation, GFS meanwhile blows it up somewhat. If I had to guess which was right, I'd side with the GFS as it does tend to be the best when it comes to shortwave development.

Will be interesting to see how it evolves.

[Neilsouth]

ECM 12z at T168

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

The shortwave is slowly coming down , ECM seems to slow everything down by some days

Edited December 9, 2009 by neilsouth

[NorthantsSnow]

There is, of course, the possibility that GFS has been consistently wrong.

That would be ultra worrying for the all new singing & dancing GFS which is currently the parallel run. That one has shown a bitterly cold snowy spell over the UK for about 8 or 9 runs in a row now.

[Lewis]

I understand what you are saying Lewis however it is amazing the differences in one run to another at times. It can be a total contrast to what it had been suggesting previously. This was particularly the case last year however there has been more general agreement at the start of this winter between the models which is a really good sign. I wonder what the cause of this is?

Yep it amazes me too Xmas,

Its a tough one tbh, I'm not going to get over excited or downbeat until i see tomorrow's 12Z GFS and ECM, either way we are going to hit a cooling period, which I welcome with my arms wide open.

If we get the colder air established, we all know what happens in time when it sticks around, i think there is going to be a lot of "re-load" situations from now until around January 23rd, with an interlude between then and Feb 5th of Atlantic conditions.

Lewis

[NorthantsSnow]

I think a few were a bit quick to dismiss the ECM. It looks like it's still going to turn out pretty good at +168.

[swfc]

Not sure what people want for early dec but ecm looks fine to me. :lol:

[kold weather]

Looks like a much slower version of the 12z GFS thus far, the shortwave is diving southwards, colder air should tuck in around 192hrs hopefully!

Certainly not as cold between 72-144hrs as the GFS though it has to be said, but maybe a longer lasting set-up in a trade off.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM 168h is simply stunning.

I think the run is fine.The high is going North the jet is going south.

[cooling climate]

ECM 168h is simply stunning.

I think the run is fine.The high is going North the jet is going south.

You really could not ask for a sweeter looking chart. The potential from that

is enormous.

[Alex95]

ECM turning out fine at +168, things creeping into FI but overall the run may redeem itself. If the run carries on as expected the real cold may reach the UK at a similar time to that on the GFS (I mean the time with heavy snow predicted as opposed to wintry flurries)