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Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Much better flow across the uk , easterly coming in on sunday

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Yes as others have noted the HiGH is much better alligned on this run for the goodies to come to the Uk rather than Majorca and Italy. This looks like being a much better run for the Uk than the 06z

As others have also noted could be a few snow flurries in East Yorks, East Anglia and Eastern Scotland as early as Sunday on this run

Paul S

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Scandi Low is deeper on this run , east/north east winds stronger though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

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Optimus Prime Rising Star

Optimus Prime

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Posted

Yup, slight short term upgrade in terms of cold and PPN it would seem.

Still don't like the look of those shortwaves however...

That shortwave could potentially give us a big snowfall event for the south if it undercuts south enough and helps drag in even more cold air.

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doublebarrel Newbie

doublebarrel

Posted
  • Location: littleover,Derby 76M above S.L.
  • Location: littleover,Derby 76M above S.L.
Posted

Yes as others have noted the HiGH is much better alligned on this run for the goodies to come to the Uk rather than Majorca and Italy. This looks like being a much better run for the Uk than the 06z

As others have also noted could be a few snow flurries in East Yorks, East Anglia and Eastern Scotland as early as Sunday on this run

Paul S

BUT... please remember us that arn`t so clever and do a simple yes it is going to snow because etc it saves all the stupid questions !! thanks. kev

Thanks Paul, and yes SQ 1 even i can see this !! :D

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

This run will be a stonker,high is further north to the 6z,more like the 0z.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1141.png

What about the dew points though?

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9610.png

They're still above freezing, which is why I think we'll most likely see drizzle rather than snow flurries.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Very good run so far, a good easterly feed and cold air being reintroduced again at 120hrs, a slightly more ESE slant then the last run which suggests to me the block will come under attack from the SW earlier this run. So far so good...

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

shortwave feature running down through Scandinavia :D

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

That shortwave could potentially give us a big snowfall event for the south if it undercuts south enough and helps drag in even more cold air.

Problem is though, it does not move anywhere fast, if it sweep down South then theres the potential for a much colder NE'ly to follow on behind it.

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted
Posted

GFS 12z says 'nyet' to this mornings UKMO that is for sure.

Really good this far and perhaps even a glimpse of the white stuff sooner than anticipated!clap.gif

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Probably get wintry/snow showers on Monday at least in the SE where the pressure is lowest. Warm sector with the developing LP to our east coming down at 144hrs but its much stronger so the cold flow could well arrive in decent time similar to the 06z.

Looking like a very good run, but expected nothing else from the GFS to be honest.

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reef Veteran

reef

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

We need that low pressure over Scandinavia to sink otherwise we'll end up with a setup similar to what the T+144 UKMO showed this morning.

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Snow Queen one Rising Star

Snow Queen one

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone
Posted

Hi Tamara i have been waiting for these charts for a long time at last i can start to feel we will be in with a chance of decent snow. The cold air ove us in the SE looks good and this to my untrainned eye is an upgrade from the 06z Lets hope the UKMO does come round to this and the GFS is not over egging the evolution a bit.

Good times.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

So far its not really an upgrade or a downgrade, its about the same as the 06z, maybe a tiny bit better to start with.

Anyway at 162hrs the upper high moving west, so we become at the mercy of the low pressure complexes that are circling each pther over E/S Europe. Upper jet really is very impressive indeed has to be said coming in from the east on this run, don't see that too often.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Warm sector coming in from the NE...could have an opportunity for some sleet/snow and cold air being reintroduced behind it.

Definitely an upgrade - The 06z showed a slightly warmer, yet brief 850hPa temperature after Sunday before going cold again come Thursday. But the 12z seems to want to keep the -5c air over us which is fantastic news. Now we look to the ECM and UKMO later today. Hopefully they will both be showing support.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Uppers look cold enough... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1292.gif

brrrrr

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Posted
Posted

Hi Tamara i have been waiting for these charts for a long time at last i can start to feel we will be in with a chance of decent snow. The cold air ove us in the SE looks good and this to my untrainned eye is an upgrade from the 06z Lets hope the UKMO does come round to this and the GFS is not over egging the evolution a bit.

Good times.

Hiya - it does look good doesn't it in the shorter term now! Definately an upgrade being shown here for the weekend by the GFS

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted

The dam is broken..

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/12/168/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf05b3b8&dopsig=1e1dd546da2af116e267c2f34c315905

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1623.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1683.png

OH MY GOD! , check out those north easterlies coming towards the uk....

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