Cold Spell Discussion 5

[phil nw.]

The 12z has brought the cold in quicker and also shows showers (probably snow) throughout Sunday in the East , also the 528 Dam line comes in during Sunday . the models are just firming up now as we have possible snow into +72 hours time frame. I would advise to concentrate on next week and the detail, don't worry about after , worry about the cold spell we have heading our way right now.

Tonights fax chart,issued sometime around 11pm,will be very interesting i think.

[dogs32]

see what I mean...Its looking more possible yet again...the rollercoaster ride..

Cold seems more South than before and clipping the S/E sunday

Edited December 10, 2009 by dogs32

[mountain shadow]

The 12z has brought the cold in quicker and also shows showers (probably snow) throughout Sunday in the East , also the 528 Dam line comes in during Sunday . the models are just firming up now as we have possible snow into +72 hours time frame. I would advise to concentrate on next week and the detail, don't worry about after , worry about the cold spell we have heading our way right now.

This is exactly the kind of chart that could provide a little something for me in County Down on tonights 12z..

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091210/12/102/airpressure.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=841a626ccf3b7c47&dopsig=2efe32d7106cbdc4a98aa892a106cee7

[Cheese Rice]

Does anyone know why when there is a decent easterly snow showers always make it into Yorkshire first? In Feb the heaviest snow showers were predicted by the GFS to start coming into Yorkshire first and the latest GFS run is showing again showers coming into Yorkshire first , it tends to be the case around 70-80% of the time, anyone know why that is?

[Methuselah]

Does anyone know why when there is a decent easterly snow showers always make it into Yorkshire first? In Feb the heaviest snow showers were predicted by the GFS to start coming into Yorkshire first and the latest GFS run is showing again showers coming into Yorkshire first , it tends to be the case around 70-80% of the time, anyone know why that is?

A combination of being close to the North Sea AND being on high ground???

[Madman89]

Anyone reckon eastern side of scotland(perth) may bare part of the brunt regarding heavy snow and freezing temps ?

[snowmadchrisuk]

only worry about ppn Sunday and Monday for now in this setup they never ever get ppn forecasts right this far out . Snow showers are very possible Sunday -5 uppers , Easterly flow , 528 damline . Do not take any notice of the temps they are maxes and almost always drop when the showers come in .

[ian34]

only worry about ppn Sunday and Monday for now in this setup they never ever get ppn forecasts right this far out . Snow showers are very possible Sunday -5 uppers , Easterly flow , 528 damline . Do not take any notice of the temps they are maxes and almost always drop when the showers come in .

just had to leave the model thread sick of hearing east east south south do these guys not remember the winters of the 70s when easterlies still delivered to the west i think they tailor the models to there own advantage and stuff anyone else ok rant over

[mountain shadow]

Anyone reckon eastern side of scotland(perth) may bare part of the brunt regarding heavy snow and freezing temps ?

In a word Yes.

Put your location on your profile please.

[frostyjoe]

just had to leave the model thread sick of hearing east east south south do these guys not remember the winters of the 70s when easterlies still delivered to the west i think they tailor the models to there own advantage and stuff anyone else ok rant over

yea agree with you there its always south east this and south east that and never anywhere else like ni scotland or wales actually i never really hear wales being mentioned.......

[The watcher]

This is exactly the kind of chart that could provide a little something for me in County Down on tonights 12z..

http://209.197.11.95...98aa892a106cee7

Hi MS, I'm not too far away from you myself being in Bangor.

The opportunities that we hope for are indeed the Easterly sea convection results or a battleground scenario between North and South, or just a plain old cold front whilst being in an already cold enough air flow and uppers.

Certainly the potential is there for pretty much all 3 scenarios to occur within the next 2 weeks. We may also be able to get the Irish Sea convection occuring from a NE flow aswell, especially if the uppers are as low as -10 or less. What we need to look for specifically is a NNE, ESE, SE and Easterly flow occuring over fairly mild ocean SST's, with a good bit of instability...pressure needs to be under the 1020mb mark in all honesty.

Certainly the chance is there for the Snow to me more widespread and not confined to just Eastern England and Scotland. Still, alot can change up to Tuesday and other chances may show themselves come the time.

[k19]

Think met check are being dramatic... 342mph wind...

Edited December 10, 2009 by K.1000

[John Snow]

Yesterday it looked like the north particularly north east was going to be buried under 3ft of snow and today most of the activity seems to be further south with less snow, things will change again and again in next few days, not worth anyone getting excited or depressed

[Luton Weather]

There is a mistake on Metcheck, they have put Luton down for 366mph gust with -20°C.

http://www.metcheck....pcode=LU4%208LG

Edited December 10, 2009 by Luton-Weather

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

yea agree with you there its always south east this and south east that and never anywhere else like ni scotland or wales actually i never really hear wales being mentioned.......

In all fairness at the moment the worst weather looks to be in the eastern half of the country, and that (apparently - I know little LOL) is what the models are showing. If and when Atlantic lows hit cold air, all we'll hear is "Western coasts and hills", so it'll balance out.

[mountain shadow]

Hi MS, I'm not too far away from you myself being in Bangor.

The opportunities that we hope for are indeed the Easterly sea convection results or a battleground scenario between North and South, or just a plain old cold front whilst being in an already cold enough air flow and uppers.

Certainly the potential is there for pretty much all 3 scenarios to occur within the next 2 weeks. We may also be able to get the Irish Sea convection occuring from a NE flow aswell, especially if the uppers are as low as -10 or less. What we need to look for specifically is a NNE, ESE, SE and Easterly flow occuring over fairly mild ocean SST's, with a good bit of instability...pressure needs to be under the 1020mb mark in all honesty.

Certainly the chance is there for the Snow to me more widespread and not confined to just Eastern England and Scotland. Still, alot can change up to Tuesday and other chances may show themselves come the time.

In a North Easterly, would the sea track be long enough to produce convection? It's only what 18 miles?

[SP1986]

yea agree with you there its always south east this and south east that and never anywhere else like ni scotland or wales actually i never really hear wales being mentioned.......

I mentioned it a few hours ago!

I hope this cold spell falls through, my plants are already showing signs of cold stress, unless of course someone wants to pay for any losses :blush:

[snowmadchrisuk]

There are obviously data issues with one of the files at Metcheck . For people who arn't sure we are looking at 10-15 mph winds at times next week which is enough to blow showers quite far inland.

I mentioned it a few hours ago!

I hope this cold spell falls through, my plants are already showing signs of cold stress, unless of course someone wants to pay for any losses :blush:

hee hee , can't you tell Stephen lives in the West . :blush: It is winter and were gonna get cold and frost this winter at times no matter what ... maybe a blanket or a green house might do the trick for your plants lol . This cold period is not gonna fall through and even if it did we would still end up with inversion cold and frost and fog at night.

Edited December 10, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[Winter Warmer]

met check for wed 16th dec in my area between 18:00 and 20:59 have temps at -1 feels like -19 and wind speed at 336 mph gust 403 mph lol

My link

[dogs32]

met check for wed 16th dec in my area between 18:00 and 20:59 have temps at -1 feels like -19 and wind speed at 336 mph gust 403 mph lol

My link

sounds like a F5 tornado :blush: or worse..

The East the South or cares....Nothing is in stone yet..

days away for the main events

[frostyjoe]

ok what is the chances for me in the north east west of northern ireland near the north channel???????? its going to be cold i just wondered about snow as bangor is so far aaway from here and is so much further east and south its not even on the same coast to it wouldnt be worth thinking about lake effect snow.......

[mt-leinster-snow-drifts]

AHHHH! Why is our cold easterly blast for Wednesday and Thursday gone south into central france????? :blush::blush:

I have everything crossed that it will go back to what it was showing yesterday for the 18z.

[SP1986]

The cold spell is already here, 0C is an absolute 100% certainty as it is currently 3.5C

The question is how low will it go? My location must be one of if not the coldest place in England right now, which is rare.

[John Snow]

Some spectacular charts coming out this evening, massive upgrades compared with this morning and afternoon, large swathes of the country will get deep deep snow if things don't downgrade

[dogs32]

if I have the latest info correct this evening, then its massive upgrades!!

and if things hold together we could see large parts of the Uk have snow

plz hold together

even xmas day looks VERY cold

Edited December 10, 2009 by dogs32