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grab my graupel

By grab my graupel
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Ben_Cambs Explorer

Ben_Cambs

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
Posted (edited)

I have a feeling this could turn out to be an Easterly similar to February last year, with the Eastern side of the country most affected, but im not ruling out snow anywhere else

Be excited on Tuesday of this event is due to happen!

Edited by Snowman0697
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Eugene Accomplished

Eugene

Posted
Posted

Here's a comment from ian brown from Dec 2nd in model discussion. :)

Dave, I think you are just having a bit of fun with these easterly predictions; it looks must unlikely that we are going to see the low heights to our West going anywhere in the short to medium term.

The set-up is just what Western Britain does not need at the moment.

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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted

The 12z utterly rakes the NE of England, wouldn't be all that shcoking to see some big accumulations up there. The run has backed off from the SE's chances BUT I'm willing to bet its rather underdoing any showers, if you get a blast like that I'm willing to bet the SE and EA would be hammered, as would the NE and obviously eastern Scotland.

Would also be very cold, temps would really struggle to reach 0-1C by Friday on that run.

Lets hope so Kold.

I was hoping for a Thames Streamer to setup. A few models showed the perfect conditions for it. But lately they have downgraded somewhat in terms of that eh?

Still, hopeful of some white stuff down here in SE Essex. Although I'm expecting sleet/wet snow at best going by latest charts...

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

to be honest I havent been closely following this afternoon as its all confusing...

Many people who have studied the charts in great detail are negative and positive.

Like SnowRaven said last night you can pull your hair out following evry chart :)

Someone level headed like J.H would have a current good idea on the situation even though its chopping and changing rapidly I think currently..

I just hope like the rest we see a 1947 :) scene....

or a 70's or 80's or

Feb this year ..

better than nothing

Tenderhook's :80:

Edited by dogs32
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Thunder_snows Newbie

Thunder_snows

Posted
  • Location: Shefford, Bedforshire
  • Location: Shefford, Bedforshire
Posted

thats all that we can do at the moment is hope and pray that the 12z does actually come off that would be amazing but the models are changing the position of where the extreme cold weather is going to be..

so how it all pans out is going to be very interesting !!!!

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Update,

12z run has downgraded the snow. The 06z showed snow for Tuesday but the 12z run shows just some sleet for Tuesday.

Sunday

Snow

Min temps

Monday

Snow

Min temps

i THOUGHT the main event was Wednesday onwards..

And Monday or Tues was for showers anyway..

I havent looked at the rest of the week recently as Im scared to see any major downgrade...

But according to some its looking good

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glasgow-guy Rookie

glasgow-guy

Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
Posted

Update,

12z run has downgraded the snow. The 06z showed snow for Tuesday but the 12z run shows just some sleet for Tuesday.

Sunday

Snow

Min temps

Monday

Snow

Min temps

these were already marginal events sun-mon-tue but its from late Wednesday onwards where the fun begins i would ignore those charts

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Certainly bloody cold out there today! Max of 4c, should give the CET a bit of a kick! Very foggy this morning, cleared by mid morning, but as soon as it started to get dark it descended once again. Doubt we will get too cold tonight thanks to cloud cover.

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Ben_Cambs Explorer

Ben_Cambs

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
Posted (edited)

post-10203-12605518536169_thumb.png

post-10203-1260551847486_thumb.png

post-10203-12605518417521_thumb.png

Next Thursday!!! Everyone should watch it with intrest(Other way round for the charts, earliest at bottom)

Edited by Snowman0697
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Lets hope so Kold.

I was hoping for a Thames Streamer to setup. A few models showed the perfect conditions for it. But lately they have downgraded somewhat in terms of that eh?

Still, hopeful of some white stuff down here in SE Essex. Although I'm expecting sleet/wet snow at best going by latest charts...

What we don't want is the shortwave going too far to the west, because once it getsw to a certain point then the set-up will start to topple a little as the upper low over scandinavia starts to come southwards ready to bring in Arctic northerly conditions, the longer the flow is propped up the shortwave the better for us here.

I suspect though both the GFS and UKMO would give a thames snow streamer, totally convinced and it'd be snow as well I'm pretty confident in that flow.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

I'm not looking out that far ahead yet.

lol....i cant say i blame you :)

though snowmans post looks like xmas pudding delight

Edited by dogs32
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glasgow-guy Rookie

glasgow-guy

Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
Posted

post-10203-12605518536169_thumb.png

post-10203-1260551847486_thumb.png

post-10203-12605518417521_thumb.png

Next Thursday!!! Everyone should watch it with intrest(Other way round for the charts, earliest at bottom)

yeah i will say it again many runs have much of the north snowing on Thursday if its still showing in further runs then we can begin to see a pattern emerge

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Ben_Cambs Explorer

Ben_Cambs

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
Posted

Like I mentioned, the most affected areas if this event does go ahead will be Eastern Scotland, Northeast England, East Anglia, Thames Estuary and the South East, other places will get snow too

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glasgow-guy Rookie

glasgow-guy

Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
Posted (edited)

looking great for Glasgow on Thursday i need to keep faith now sorry folks a bit of a ramp i know

capturejgl.png

looks like they have downgraded the forum features for a while

Edited by glasgow-guy
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WS Evolution Newbie

WS Evolution

Posted
  • Location: Vale of York: 14m above mean sea level
  • Location: Vale of York: 14m above mean sea level
Posted (edited)

The cold spell started here with some impressive low surface temps: Forecasters underestimating in many areas: Max here today of 1C from a low of -2 and now falling again. Currently 0.5C with thick fog, ice and frost.

I feel this could be a theme for many... lower temps then forecast and frozen ground; therefore a greater chance of snow.

With very low visibility and ice I think a weather warning would be justified.

Edited by WS Evolution
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

I'd still expect some sleety showers to try and get into Kent and maybe far eastern EA regions on Monday but I don't think they will be all that potent from the looks of things.

As for later this week, models showing a HUGE amount of uncertainty over the shortwave, some take it southwards very rapidly, some don't get the SE into the colder air till nearly 168hrs. I think though the UKMO looks a good compramise model, the GFS op was a little on the slow side but not by a huge deal.

Inverness is our first place to have an ice day in this cold spell, with a max today of 0C, probably due to thick fog. Many other Scottish places have struggled to reach 2-3C today. Overall does seem like temps have come out a little colder then the models had expected away from the SE.

Anyway temps dropping away rapidly now, temps in Scotland already widely below 0C, temps further south showing a really wide spread depending on the fog conditions of course...

I suspect mins tonight will be down to similar levels as they were last night, so quite widely below 0C perhaps apart from southern towns and cities...but even there it depends on the fog issue.

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

I would quite expect eastern/northeastern England to get the brunt of an Easterly where

snow is concerned. Other areas are likely to do well but if memory serves me correctly

it is these areas that will be in the firing line.

The projected daytime temperatures are very good for keeping any snow pack,as for night-

time that will be dependent on the cloud/wind etc but recognized frost hollows could

very well see some severe overnight frosts.

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted

well the snow event looks its going to start from from about 16 of dec cant wait!!!!!!

post-4629-12605536691794_thumb.gif

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glasgow-guy Rookie

glasgow-guy

Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
Posted

well the snow event looks its going to start from from about 16 of dec cant wait!!!!!!

ermm where is the rest of the UK in that synopsis :drunk:

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ISAAC Rookie

ISAAC

Posted
  • Location: Stoke-On-Trent (178m ASL)
  • Location: Stoke-On-Trent (178m ASL)
Posted

Upgrade from UKMO yet very reluctant to mention snow even for Eastern England on thier forecasts wallbash.gif

Something not right here cc_confused.gif

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Upgrade from UKMO yet very reluctant to mention snow even for Eastern England on thier forecasts wallbash.gif

Something not right here cc_confused.gif

They haven't updated their forecasts yet, give them chance!

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