Cold Spell Discussion

[dogs32]

Cold snap raises white Xmas expectations And NetWeather

Large parts of the country awoke to Dickensian fog this morning and a noticeable drop in temperatures that could herald the arrival of snow in the north next week.

Some places will only get up to two or three [degrees C] if the fog lingers, but in southern England up to seven or eight," Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said

"There are no certainties. I'd say 30% to 40% risk of snow [on Christmas Day] – not a bad risk two weeks away."

Snow has fallen on Christmas Day only ten times in the UK in the last century.

[NorthantsSnow]

The latest forecast from Pitsford Hall, Northamptonshire:

DAILY WEATHER REPORT

from PITSFORD HALL WEATHER STATION

released at 08:02 AM on Friday, 11 December 2009

GENERAL SITUATION ACROSS THE UK

High pressure will remain in charge and fairly stationary across the UK today and over the next few days. As its centre drifts steadily northwards it will begin to draw in much colder air from eastern Europe introducing a significantly more wintry feel to the weather as we head into next week.

OUTLOOK

With high pressure continuing to remain in charge tomorrow, we can expect Saturday to remain dry and there will be sufficient breeze to break up the cloud and allow for some spells of sunshine. Highs tomorrow will reach 6C falling overnight to 3C. Sunday is likely to be a day of two halves: generally dry through the morning with glimpses of sunshine with cloud and outbreaks of rain spreading from the east during the afternoon. With an easterly breeze it will be a chilly day with highs climbing to 5C falling overnight to 1C. Monday will be rather cloudy; showery outbreaks of rain will turn briefly to sleet or snow during the afternoon before clearing and leaving a dry and generally clear evening. Daytime highs will reach 5C, although a widespread frost will follow overnight as lows fall to -1C. Tuesday will remain dry, although it will continue to feel rather cold.

Source & more: http://www.brixworth.demon.co.uk/updates/weather7.htm

[Nights King]

Cold snap raises white Xmas expectations And NetWeather

Large parts of the country awoke to Dickensian fog this morning and a noticeable drop in temperatures that could herald the arrival of snow in the north next week.

Some places will only get up to two or three [degrees C] if the fog lingers, but in southern England up to seven or eight," Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said

"There are no certainties. I'd say 30% to 40% risk of snow [on Christmas Day] – not a bad risk two weeks away."

Snow has fallen on Christmas Day only ten times in the UK in the last century.

Not really strictly true is it? Uk? Doesnt it mean London? I have seen 3 in the last decade.

[NorthernRab]

Cold snap raises white Xmas expectations And NetWeather

Large parts of the country awoke to Dickensian fog this morning and a noticeable drop in temperatures that could herald the arrival of snow in the north next week.

Some places will only get up to two or three [degrees C] if the fog lingers, but in southern England up to seven or eight," Met Office forecaster Helen Chivers said

"There are no certainties. I'd say 30% to 40% risk of snow [on Christmas Day] – not a bad risk two weeks away."

Snow has fallen on Christmas Day only ten times in the UK in the last century.

That figure certainly doesn't apply to the Scottish Highlands...does it mean London?

[cyclonic happiness]

Not really strictly true is it? Uk? Doesnt it mean London? I have seen 3 in the last decade.

Yes, but remember london is the centre of the universe

I've seen just 4 in my life and i'm not best placed.

Quite why they chose the pokey southeastern corner of this, one of the biggest islands on earth, to measure white christmasses, is beyond me?

Edited December 11, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[dogs32]

guys your correct...just quoting the paper's..

Overall I think most people will get some snow at some point..

different depth's different places..

i would be so surprised now even if I dont see one flake

Go and check out J.H pdf LINK IN THE MODEL THREAD

Some good info in there

but I will say glos is due for 3 ft like 1947

Edited December 11, 2009 by dogs32

[alr1970]

Maybe they know something we don't?

Not really, they just don't like to forecast anything more than 3 days in advance. And why should they, most people can cope with a 2 day warning of snow. The LAs, HA, airports, etc., should be paying attention a bit further ahead in order to make contingency plans, (however inadequate), but Joe Public would just moan that they were warned about nothing, just as they'll not pay attention and moan that they weren't warned 2 days ahead. They can't win. And no-one on here needs the BBC to warn them, do they?

Andrew

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Not really, they just don't like to forecast anything more than 3 days in advance. And why should they, most people can cope with a 2 day warning of snow. The LAs, HA, airports, etc., should be paying attention a bit further ahead in order to make contingency plans, (however inadequate), but Joe Public would just moan that they were warned about nothing, just as they'll not pay attention and moan that they weren't warned 2 days ahead. They can't win. And no-one on here needs the BBC to warn them, do they?

Andrew

As I suspected, I just wondered whether there was any support in the models for that forecast.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Also I think MAF posted saying that was from 4 days ago to...

[Marcus_surfer]

Outbreaks of rain for monday and tuesday? No snow then.

[Ben_Cambs]

The BBC are way behind the times, pathetic

Monday 14 December 2009 to Sunday 20 December 2009

Probably staying drier and colder than of late

The probabilities have changed for this week and now favour continued quiet weather, i.e. light breezes, bright or sunny conditions, and dry days following frosty nights. Fog is less likely.

There is a very slight possibility of a chilling southeasterly breeze coupled with frontal rain in Scotland.

Monday 21 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010

This bit covers Christmas Day!

And as usual there is no strong probability of either wet or white!

Indications are for below average temperatures, but for most at least an average amount of rain. So more often than not we will have high pressure giving us frost and sunshine, but with one or two incursions of frontal rain.

If a cold southeasterly wind met Atlantic rain over us then you have the pretty white scenario. Sadly, there is no reason to forecast this at the moment.

Yes they forecasted this on MONDAY MORNING! That was 5 DAYS AGO!!!!!

[Fozfoster]

My daughter ella (5) just handed me a christmas card from herself and on the front it said LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

My daughter ella (5) just handed me a christmas card from herself and on the front it said LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW.

You won't hear this sort of stuff from me often, but

"Awww, bless!"

[Just Before Dawn]

There are plenty of people who work for or with organisations who get advanced warnings of bad weather - The Highways Agency, The Environment Agency, County Highways departments, the Blue Light services....no doubt they'll post when and if they get those alerts from the MetO. I do, and we get advanced warnings say 2-3 days in advance, with flash warnings within 24 hours, though often with only 4-8 hours notice. I doubt that the Met will say much about next week into next weekend until next Monday, and I don't blame them - in order to allow responders to target responses properly, they need to be sure, and they need to be fairly accurate. I know, for example that Highways departments prepare equipment, sort out staff rosters when they get the advanced warning, and actually load salt/brine, pre-position equipment and actually grit (taking a single example) once the flash warnings arrive.

The snow situation isn't close to being nailed yet - as John Holmes says - 48-24 hours beforehand is the time you can start to get an idea, and detailed predictions is almost a matter of single digit hours and nowcasting. I won't be confident about snow for my area until inside 24 hours before, I'll start thinking about it seriously from Tuesday Night.

[dogs32]

My daughter ella (5) just handed me a christmas card from herself and on the front it said LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW.

good luck for yousake...lol

she as a good chance this week so hopfully she wont be dissapointed.

On another note I think the frenzy of many posts on the forum as slowed down.

I think people are worn out with charts ,,lol

next frenzy run 22.30

Edited December 11, 2009 by dogs32

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

There are plenty of people who work for or with organisations who get advanced warnings of bad weather - The Highways Agency, The Environment Agency, County Highways departments, the Blue Light services....no doubt they'll post when and if they get those alerts from the MetO. I do, and we get advanced warnings say 2-3 days in advance, with flash warnings within 24 hours, though often with only 4-8 hours notice. I doubt that the Met will say much about next week into next weekend until next Monday, and I don't blame them - in order to allow responders to target responses properly, they need to be sure, and they need to be fairly accurate. I know, for example that Highways departments prepare equipment, sort out staff rosters when they get the advanced warning, and actually load salt/brine, pre-position equipment and actually grit (taking a single example) once the flash warnings arrive.

The snow situation isn't close to being nailed yet - as John Holmes says - 48-24 hours beforehand is the time you can start to get an idea, and detailed predictions is almost a matter of single digit hours and nowcasting. I won't be confident about snow for my area until inside 24 hours before, I'll start thinking about it seriously from Tuesday Night.

Apologies if you have done his in the past, but, IF we get through to Tuesday evening and it looks as though significant snow is likely, would it be a good idea for you, as an emergency planning professional, to write a guide for how we should prepare?

[Fozfoster]

good luck for yousake...lol

she as a good chance this week so hopfully she wont be disappointed.

On another note I think the frenzy of many posts on the forum as slowed down.

I think people are worn out with charts ,,lol

next frenzy run 22.30

I have obviously been RAMPING at home

[Ben_Cambs]

It would be of an significant help this year if the Councils around the country have got enough grit, and to grit every main road, M, A, B and major inner city roads (Slightly off topic)

Back to next week, its not nailed yet, It is nailed within T48 hrs, so I dont want to see people dissapointed, so keep calm and watch the developments of the latest GFS, UKMO and ECM charts. The 18z GFS run will be interesting, so I will be on then, not a lot of posts at the moment (There will be then!)

Edited December 11, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Just Before Dawn]

Apologies if you have done his in the past, but, IF we get through to Tuesday evening and it looks as though significant snow is likely, would it be a good idea for you, as an emergency planning professional, to write a guide for how we should prepare?

Hi Chris,

My area of work is flood risk management and response, so I'm probably not best placed to do this when it comes to snow (I tend to get involved when it melts!)- there's loads of stuff of interest on the UK Resilience website. IF things do look serious come early next week, the best source of information is almost always your local radio station.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

well pmsl if metcheck's right, UK will be destroyed! most areas being forecast in excess of 300mph winds next wed-fri

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Hi Chris,

My area of work is flood risk management and response, so I'm probably not best placed to do this when it comes to snow (I tend to get involved when it melts!)- there's loads of stuff of interest on the UK Resilience website. IF things do look serious come early next week, the best source of information is almost always your local radio station.

Thanks.

[Snowyowl9]

Can`t see where a frost is coming tonight unless cloud breaks, fog has lifted 3.2c

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1217.png

Tomorrow looks chillier though.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2417.png

[dogs32]

latest run coming out now...looking good but its still running

edit I think

Edited December 11, 2009 by dogs32

[Ben_Cambs]

latest run coming out now...looking good but its still running

edit I think

Yep the 18z GFS is coming out, currently at T+75

[dogs32]

Yep the 18z GFS is coming out, currently at T+75

biting my nails here..lol...cant wait to see thur/fri