Cold Spell Discussion

[Tim Bland]

I would quite expect eastern/northeastern England to get the brunt of an Easterly where

snow is concerned. Other areas are likely to do well but if memory serves me correctly

it is these areas that will be in the firing line.

The projected daytime temperatures are very good for keeping any snow pack,as for night-

time that will be dependent on the cloud/wind etc but recognized frost hollows could

very well see some severe overnight frosts.

?

Do you think Herts does well out of these set ups? I haven't lived here long?

[cyclonic happiness]

Upgrade from UKMO yet very reluctant to mention snow even for Eastern England on thier forecasts

Something not right here

The met office is terrified of forecasting snow, even last winter we had a couple of times where we had heavy snow falling that hadn't been forecast.

There was even one event where is had been snowing hard for about 2 hours with 3" on the ground before the meto even issued a warning!!

Usually if they forecast sleet, it's gonna be snow.

[tinybill]

ermm where is the rest of the UK in that synopsis

http://www.meteociel...tations/12h.htm

that the best you get from this french site its always right lol

Edited December 11, 2009 by tinybill

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have a feeling this could turn out to be an Easterly similar to February last year, with the Eastern side of the country most affected, but im not ruling out snow anywhere else

Be excited on Tuesday of this event is due to happen!

you mean February last year or this year 09? because if it is similar to feb 09, then fantastic, I had decent snow off that, then i may be excited

[dogs32]

ALSO the Met often update in real time...so as its about to hit the area first warnings go out..

look at the London streamer last year good example..

[azumin]

What i would love to happen is for a polar low to develop in the north sea late next week and push on in a south westerly direction from Scotland across into Northern Ireland and continue on the in the same direction there after. I appreciate if i get my wish others won't get theirs. However it's unlikely mine will come true:)

[kold weather]

As for snowfall I really wouldn't stress too much, the models are not going to get a good latch onto any disturbances like streamers till probably within 24-48hrs of the actual, indeed only the high resolution models will have any real lcue its happening given the relative small location that it tends to cover. The situation last year was a little different it has to be said in that a convergence line set-up and really enhanced the normal streamer...thats something else that can happen and not be expected.

Temperatures look cold overall, nothing too exceptional but certainly going to be a real chill in the air thats for sure!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As for snowfall I really wouldn't stress too much, the models are not going to get a good latch onto any disturbances like streamers till probably within 24-48hrs of the actual, indeed only the high resolution models will have any real lcue its happening given the relative small location that it tends to cover. The situation last year was a little different it has to be said in that a convergence line set-up and really enhanced the normal streamer...thats something else that can happen and not be expected.

Temperatures look cold overall, nothing too exceptional but certainly going to be a real chill in the air thats for sure!

as long as they're cold enough for Snow, like feb 09, no exceptional cold but decent longish lasting snow, (for christmas pudding)

[cyclonic happiness]

Does anyone know what sort of windchill we could get from speeds of 336mph???

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=cv12&day=7

[Snowstorm1]

The northeast of england itv forcast is saying a white christmas is possible! :yahoo:This weekend cold and wintry feel and Also next week heavy snow and bitterly cold temps on the way...

[cooling climate]

?

Do you think Herts does well out of these set ups? I haven't lived here long?

Depends on the wind direction. Last Febuary we did quite well with about 6-7 inches.

During the epic cold spell of 1987 when to the east,southeast and south were getting

caked in the stuff we got about an inch lol.

Generally I think we do ok especially if the showers merge together and also if we have

a fresh to strong east wind which blows the showers a lot further inland.

So judging by the model output at the moment I would say yes we will do fairly well.

Hope that helps.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Does anyone know what sort of windchill we could get from speeds of 336mph??? :lol: :lol: :lol:

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=cv12&day=7

Ha! Last night the Russians were predicting mental windspeeds!

[chapmanraven]

What are the chances now of snow for the Hinckley (liecestershire/warwickshire border) area.

I keep checking and the forecasts were really good, then they backed off and forecast icy rain and sleet. Met office not forecasting anything special for my area either :lol:

Edited December 11, 2009 by chapmanraven

[dogs32]

Angwin not mentioning any snow....he wont go anywhere past Sunday...

just a warning about it becoming very cold for next week

[Snowstorm1]

BBC local weather forcast says weather for next week could be interesting with a cheeky grin! I live in northeast england btw

Edited December 11, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[chapmanraven]

Still waiting for the ECM to finish the 12z but I think it's showed what we need to see with regards to the easterly next week. As always, too early to talk specifics but on the basis of all of the latest three main model runs, the further north and east you are the better your chances of good snowfall. I'm quite confident that from what the models are showing the Midlands would see snow too, how much is just too uncertain as precip amounts are far from accurate at this stage.

Just thought I'd quickly add, t192 on the ECM is quite a sight! No sooner does the easterly transfer southward, we have a quick transition to northerly!

Many thanks for the reply. Im keeping my fingers crossed. I do so hope we all get snow.

[John Snow]

BBC local weather forcast says weather for next week could be interesting with a cheeky grin! I live in northeast england btw

Yeah you are right lucky

You are pretty much programmed for 2-3ft of snow by next Sunday night unless there is a big shift in the models

[Nights King]

Local forecaster richard anguin didnt even mention a chance of snow next week. he just says cold and frosty!

I am starting to go off that man, may change my avater soon....

Think my best chance is to get a hard frost one night and turn a snow machine on although they are very expensive

[cyclonic happiness]

Haha!!!! so today everone is now gonna spend two hours listing why the ECM is right!!!

[Ben_Cambs]

Even my local forecaster mentioned snow by the middle of next week!

[January Snowstorm]

Well just watched the Irish weather on tv and they said mostly or completely dry next week, though cooling down. What the..... charts are they looking at

[dogs32]

Local forecaster richard anguin didnt even mention a chance of snow next week. he just says cold and frosty!

I am starting to go off that man, may change my avater soon....

Think my best chance is to get a hard frost one night and turn a snow machine on although they are very expensive

thats classic!!!

dont worry Richard doesnt wont to show his hand yet...

the 3 ft of snow WILL head south..

you heard it here first

1962 here we come

lol...ramp....ramp

Edited December 11, 2009 by dogs32

[David Spring]

Judging by this:

I'd have a guess and say that perhaps the ECM is modelling the Earth's rotation on its axis being reversed overnight!

What would be the 2m temps if that verified?

[NorthantsSnow]

Francis Wilson on Sky News mentioned the possibility of snow next week. "More on that nearer to the time" he said.

By the way, CNN International have the very latest weather forecast for Europe at the earlier time tonight of 7:38pm. This is normally a good detailed forecast. Hopefully Guillermo will go into detail about the cold spell coming up.

[January Snowstorm]

for those who might like a more measured response to what the 3 main models appear to be showing for next week I'll do another blog later this evening.

John, any thoughts as to why the pro's are still silent about this spell??

The Irish Met just said dry all next week