Welsh Cold Spell Discussion

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Remains the likely scenario and remember GFS tends to over do coastal temps, it is an American model, where coastal influences are not as significant.

The GFS medium term is a disappointment though, brings the milder air in quicker early next week.

Cheers for that, i agree it does seem the most likely scenario. I now await the Metoffice updates tomorrow

[keithlucky]

Yet I have SKY News weather on and that is showing Wales completely clear over the next few days too! Ggggrrrr I wish I knew what it is going to do - meant to be going out Saturday night - don't want to find that Sunday morning the children are stranded in their Grandparents house at the top of Baglan mountain!!

People dont listen francis wilson the best weatherman ever said heavy snow showers moving south on sunday down acrooss irish sea across wales. Edited December 17, 2009 by keithlucky

[Snowyowl9]

Snow with this NW-ly will all be of snow temps are the right side of marginal well I`m speaking for my height anyway.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/60_30.gif

BBC usually underestimate a NW-ly for snow and just put wintry showers.

[Marcus_surfer]

BBC forecast showed Friday night -3C in Cardiff and colder elsewhere with rain showers in north and west wales!? What the hell?

[Barb]

BBC's main interest is the South East, Wales is a remote backwater to them.

[J10]

To be fair, dewpoints do look marginal for Saturday morning

GFS really is not a favourable run at all past this weekend.

By the way the BBC forecast did show the front pushing south on Saturday night across all parts of the UK.

[keithlucky]

BBC's main interest is the South East, Wales is a remote backwater to them.

Look at weather forecaste for weekend dident mention wales or swest because of they got caught with ther knickers down when they had heavy snow a few years ago in london not forecaste, thats why they got the s east bias.

[Marcus_surfer]

To be fair, dewpoints do look marginal for Saturday morning

GFS really is not a favourable run at all past this weekend.

By the way the BBC forecast did show the front pushing south on Saturday night across all parts of the UK.

Sorry i don't understand... -7C dew point is marginal? What dew point do we need for it to snow?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Yes allot of surface cold early saturday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs364.gif

The upper air is already very cold around the UK to start with so Cold air is likely to be stubborn to move i think.

[J10]

Sorry i don't understand... -7C dew point is marginal? What dew point do we need for it to snow?

0c or thereabouts, I was being ironic, which is sometimes missed on forums.

[Snowyowl9]

Sorry i don't understand... -7C dew point is marginal? What dew point do we need for it to snow?

He`s kidding.

Upper air of -10c coming back in with this NW-ly so no problem at all except for that -4c blip.

http://91.121.93.17/wz/pics/Rmgfs572.gif

There was a bubbling cumulus to the east today which looking on the radar turned into a heavy shower missed here typical.

Clouds today looked to come from a NNE direction never very good for bringing showers here.

[Marcus_surfer]

0c or thereabouts, I was being ironic, which is sometimes missed on forums.

haha ok thanks, got confused then, its a cold one tonight! can't look at the SE thread!

[J10]

haha ok thanks, got confused then, its a cold one tonight! can't look at the SE thread!

No problem, the SE thread seems to full of bickering tonight, plenty of snow, but quite a bit thawing by all accounts.

[Cymro]

You've got to admit the BBC have been worse this time round with the weather than they have in the past being biased with the South East that is! They will have a lot of explaining to do.

[Marcus_surfer]

You've got to admit the BBC have been worse this time round with the weather than they have in the past being biased with the South East that is! They will have a lot of explaining to do.

Just watched BBC weather on BBC news 24, only mentioned Wales once and that was for tomorrow mornings frosty start. Why not just call it "BBC News 24 with SE England Weather"

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Perhaps the BBC are just playing it safe because they dont seem to mention much in the way of snow for the South of the UK on Sat/Sun.

Looking at the charts avaiable to us we can see the risk is certainly there. We will find out tomorrow and lets hope we get the best possible outcome.

[Barb]

Just watched BBC weather on BBC news 24, only mentioned Wales once and that was for tomorrow mornings frosty start. Why not just call it "BBC News 24 with SE England Weather"

True, I hope we get a foot just to embarrass them.

[risk of sleet]

18Z GFS ground temp Operational are all mild outliers for N Wales upto Xmas. S Wales the op is about in the middle of the pack. What could it mean? Perhaps nothing - but nice to see that a white Xmas isn't totally out of the equation. Looking forward to the snow Saturday PM:D onwards ...

[CRACKPOT]

Perhaps the BBC are just playing it safe because they dont seem to mention much in the way of snow for the South of the UK on Sat/Sun.

Looking at the charts avaiable to us we can see the risk is certainly there. We will find out tomorrow and lets hope we get the best possible outcome.

Thats because apart from far north fringes of Wales - the forecast for the majority of Wales is cold , very dry and sunny ALL weekend - then it is possibly mild for the southern half on Monday with rain. Wales are going to miss out again, as usual the milder air is going to win over South Wales and this has turned into a non-event for us again.

The only possibility is the wind being stronger than forecast and a few 'potent' showers making Welsh landfall somewhere and hope they are also overdoing the temperatures for Monday. Not looking good for us this time otherwise.

JK

[Marcus_surfer]

The forecast this morning is rain and sleet for the next few days,

[Cymro]

Very disappointed by this morning forecast what the heck is going on?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The Front heading SE late Saturday in to Sunday does look like it will start as a wintry mix in Wales:

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

Then is likely to turn to Snow as colder air comes in behind it:

http://charts.netwea...ctypeuktopo.png

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Doesnt look like it will accumulate away from high ground though

Edited December 18, 2009 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[swales]

Not sure what to make of this cold spell anymore.

I think so far an overall disspointment...

We'll see what happens on the weekend.

Don't you feel sorry for all these people going out tonight in their mini-skirts... awww

Nice sunny sky's here.

[Barb]

BBC showing potential blizzard on Tuesday:

Not sure what to make of this cold spell anymore.

I think so far an overall disspointment...

We'll see what happens on the weekend.

Don't you feel sorry for all these people going out tonight in their mini-skirts... awww

Nice sunny sky's here.

Just have to see what happens I suppose, you win some you lose some. There's a plenty of potential for fun next week, more so than this week.

[swales]

BBC showing potential blizzard on Tuesday:

Can't see that image because of the college's firewall. Stupid thing.

Any frozen snow arounf over the Beacons? anyone?