South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[smarty81]

We had some very light snow here in tewkesbury at 2.30 this afternoon albeit it light, anyone hopefull of this band of snow moving down the country tonight giving the cotswolds a covering.

temp 0.5c

[Nights King]

Thanks for update Ian. I still think we have a good chance in and around bristol/somerset. When the front arrives we shall have a much better picture and i shall inform you all the moment a wet flake hits the deck lol

temperature -1.8c dew point -8.8c and partial cloud cover.

Edited December 19, 2009 by mullender83

[anvilhead]

thanks Ian. I noticed the easterly penetration of showers from the b channel on the earlier bbc graphic for tomorrow - I'm hoping for that here in Cirencester.

I take it any rear sloping characteristics of this front will prolong the precip in general, and increase the snow time if preceeded by rain ?

sam

[lfcdude]

east wilts? so devizes has a good chance?

[SizzlingHeat]

no mention of dorset from anyone?

[twister2005]

well fingers croosed cheltenham, glos

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Only just below freezing here, with the DP below as well, might stick my head out in a min and see whats happening!

[Nights King]

I think we need to look towards the coastal areas and low western areas/southern areas of wales to see how much is falling as snow because i think wales is meant to be almost as marginal as us. Currently netweather radar shows most of ppn falling as snow but it is early days.

Looking forward to shower chance tomoro. Almost looks abit like a streamer coming up the bristol channel into somerset/glos area on bbc graphics.

Edited December 19, 2009 by mullender83

[SteveB]

Thanks Ian, maybe a better bet tomorrow through showers

[*AL*]

What are Swindons chances tonight guys?

[Wilxy]

What are Swindons chances tonight guys?

Id say v good at the moment.

[dogs32]

well fingers croosed cheltenham, glos

finger's crossed....Its going to be a late one tonight

so hope we get some heavy beefy snow shower's tomorrow

Edited December 19, 2009 by dogs32

[BristolBlizzard]

Just received the latest NAE and high-res modelling / chief forecaster assessment and the story has little significant change: low-ish risk of any meaningful snowfall across the SW tonight, with the main area as per the evolution timeline I posted earlier BUT.... emphasise we're catering for a 50 NM error east-west from that modelling, so not impossible to see wintry stuff falling into the likes of Bristol and a few higher sports further down the SSW peninsula tonight. However much as earlier mentioned, east Wilts / NE Glos look bettter bets, really.

Tomorrow offers a different prospect - between the sunshine, wintry showers, some pretty beefy, feeding quite regularly eastwards off the Bristol Channel and some also migrating across Wales into Glos on the stiff NW flow.

thanks ian great post.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Shocking BBC forecast for us, whats with the SE getting better snow than the SW on a NW wind! Bit back to front that one. It's not as though the NW wind has gone on a track somewhere south of Iceland first and then back across the south of Ireland.

I give up, I mean if we can't get snow off our usual favourite then when can we.

Time to book a ski holiday me thinks

Edited December 19, 2009 by Dartmoor_Matt

[dogs32]

Shocking BBC forecast for us, whats with the SE getting better snow than the SW on a NW wind! Bit back to front that one. It's not as though the NW wind has gone on a track somewhere south of Iceland first and then back across the south of Ireland.

I give up, I mean if we can't get snow off our usual favourite then when can we.

Time to book a ski holiday me thinks

From a Channel Low comming up against the bitter cold air....

Seen this set up many times over the years...

Can get large accumulation's from this type of set up.

Never in my memory have we had a large snowfall from the North..

anyway good luck you just might see some flakes

Edited December 19, 2009 by dogs32

[Wilxy]

Hows it looking for bristol to see snow?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

From a Channel Low comming up against the bitter cold air....

Seen this set up many times over the years...

Can get large accumulation's from this type of set up.

Never in my memory have we had a large snowfall from the North..

anyway good luck you just might see some flakes

Because down here we stick out into the sea, we often get the best snow as it picks up moisture over the North Sea and even better from the Atlantic, nothing like last Feb of course, which I'm unsure of synoptically other than it was pretty cold to start and the forecast was for transitional snow overnight... oops.

[SteveB]

From a Channel Low comming up against the bitter cold air....

Seen this set up many times over the years...

Can get large accumulation's from this type of set up.

Never in my memory have we had a large snowfall from the North..

anyway good luck you just might see some flakes

I struggling to see how this can't be anything other than snow, it's made it into Wales as snow, there is snow to the south of us. We really must be unlucky if it falls as rain.

[David-kig]

oh dear looks like rain to me north of wales

[fromey]

I struggling to see how this can't be anything other than snow, it's made it into Wales as snow, there is snow to the south of us. We really must be unlucky if it falls as rain.

im thinking the samething its cloudy with a few flakes and the temps are falling.

im at 140asl, so im hopefull!!

fromey

[SteveB]

oh dear looks like rain to me north of wales

It is over the Irish sea, but as it has come on to land it's turned back to snow.

[fromey]

It is over the Irish sea, but as it has come on to land it's turned back to snow.

beat me to it, look a bit closer,its rain over the irish sea and as it comes over land its snow

[David-kig]

ok fingers crossed everyone we might get a dusting

[theprophecyman]

im thinking the samething its cloudy with a few flakes and the temps are falling.

im at 140asl, so im hopefull!!

fromey

Gutted - snow in Frome.... And I'm down with some family in Barnstaple and its raining

Whats the prediction "snow wise from Frome" - expecting much??

[Nights King]

My hopes are rising because i thought west wales was going to be a rain event? ppn looks like nearly all snow on map??

Temp -2.1c at moment and -8.5c dew points it will either be snow or alot of freezing rain up here!