South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Lynxus]

WOW, Check this!

http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/AboutGlasgow/WebCams/

ONLY 5 mins ago i watched this and it was left trouser leging it down with rain!

NOW LOOK

[dogs32]

WOW, Check this!

http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/en/AboutGlasgow/WebCams/

ONLY 5 mins ago i watched this and it was left trouser leging it down with rain!

NOW LOOK

rubbish

lets hope it turns more to snow

[Nights King]

very light snow here but its lovely big fluffy flakes. temperature has just broken my ice day though 0.4c

[Lynxus]

Ive got a cunning plan.

Everyone get their freezers outside , open them up and turn to max.

This should help counteract the warm airmass!

[fromey]

very light snow here but its lovely big fluffy flakes. temperature has just broken my ice day though 0.4c

its also getting a little bit heavier now, flakes a little bit bigger, considering we werent forcast this its nice to see

fromey

[MP-R]

its also getting a little bit heavier now, flakes a little bit bigger, considering we werent forcast this its nice to see

fromey

And surely any snow we get before hand as a surprise will help cool the air even more.

[Nights King]

And surely any snow we get before hand as a surprise will help cool the air even more.

Not really. it isnt enough for a dusting and if anything the early cloud cover will keep our ground temps up.

[dogs32]

Ive got a cunning plan.

Everyone get their freezers outside , open them up and turn to max.

This should help counteract the warm airmass!

like you its freezing here...The snow is still on the ground..

should be snow by the time it gets here

[fromey]

funny thing is there nothing showing up on the meto rain fall radar

fromey

edit some big feather like flakes now

[SteveB]

Nothing here & temp is at 2.8c & rising.

[Nights King]

Temperature should fall away again before that thin band of "snow" gets here late evening so you still have a chance in western.

cloudy here but only the occasional flake. temperature. 0.5c and steady. dew point -9

Edited December 19, 2009 by mullender83

[LostInABlizzard]

I think our best chance of snow tonight is it arriving later on so that the temperature drops before it gets here. I was just out shopping in Chippenham and the temp was 5C!

Fiona

[Lynxus]

Can confirm some very light slow in abbeymead gloucester.

VERY light ie: a few flakes, but it still prooves its cold enuf round here,

[BristolBlizzard]

Nothing here & temp is at 2.8c & rising.

light snow in south bristol now , going by radar looks like few showers about to hit here.

[kernowman]

Having all sorts in West Cornwall at the moment, mainly drizzle now but we have had sleet and some slight snow.  Maybe as the it get colder today there is an outside chance of a dusting of snow this evening.

[Bristawl Si]

light snow in south bristol now , going by radar looks like few showers about to hit here.

V.light snow here in Nth BTL. And i stress the "light"!

[kumquat]

The front looks like its splitting on the last met o radar - Would be typical if it split and totally missed us in the middle.

[dogs32]

flakes falling here

edit only a few in the wind

Edited December 19, 2009 by dogs32

[textmum]

Can confirm some very light slow in abbeymead gloucester.

VERY light ie: a few flakes, but it still prooves its cold enuf round here,

Thats where I live, must look out of the window!!!

Seen a few flakes, coming down a bit heavier now, but very fine.

Edited December 19, 2009 by textmum

[Ian Fergusson]

The front looks like its splitting on the last met o radar - Would be typical if it split and totally missed us in the middle.

Hi - - Yes, that's somewhat the expectation. The snowfall (i.e., later tonight - not these recent minor flurries) will be essentially a story further east along the M4 (Swindon eastwards) whereas we're largely expecting rain and sleet for Bristol and environs tonight, BUT it's rather knife-edge in terms of the spatial discrimination of PPN type falling away from the coast. The latest NAE output tends to split the front as it sinks southwards past the Welsh Marches, with snow risk continuing largely eastwards thereonwards, albeit still offering a minor snow signal for lowland areas around the Bristol Channel. But for the most part, the high-res modelling wants to call the outcome as rain / sleet for the Westcountry westwards of ca. Chippenham, with the exception of highest ground.

The real story for us is not disruptive snow (but it never really was with this evolution) - it's the risk of ice. Freezing light rain possible later this evening and for sure - irrespective of PPN type - whatever has fallen by dawn tomorrow will make for some very treacherous conditions on many untreated rural and urban roads.

Let's see what the next NAE makes of things.... it might revert to the solution we had at first today, suggestive of a more coherent and somewhat heavier band of PPN into Bristol for around an hour towards midnight.

Best

Ian

Edited December 19, 2009 by Ian Fergusson

[Nights King]

Hi - - Yes, that's somewhat the expectation. The snowfall (i.e., later tonight - not these recent minor flurries) will be essentially a story further east along the M4 (Swindon eastwards) whereas we're largely expecting rain and sleet for Bristol and environs tonight, BUT it's rather knife-edge in terms of the spatial discrimination of PPN type falling away from the coast. The latest NAE output tends to split the front as it sinks southwards past the Welsh Marches, with snow risk continuing largely eastwards thereonwards, albeit still offering a minor snow signal for lowland areas around the Bristol Channel. But for the most part, the high-res modelling wants to call the outcome as rain / sleet for the Westcountry westwards of ca. Chippenham, with the exception of highest ground.

The real story for us is not disruptive snow (but it never really was with this evolution) - it's the risk of ice. Freezing light rain possible later this evening and for sure - irrespective of PPN type - whatever has fallen by dawn tomorrow will make for some very treacherous conditions on many untreated rural and urban roads.

Let's see what the next NAE makes of things.... it might revert to the solution we had at first today, suggestive of a more coherent and somewhat heavier band of PPN into Bristol for around an hour towards midnight.

Best

Ian

What would you say the mendip hills chances are for seeing the ppn as snow?

[Jane Louise]

Looking good for tonight

Let's hope this happens.

ThunderSnow anybody??

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/047

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 14:55GMT on Saturday 19th December 2009

Valid from/until: 14:55 - 04:00GMT on Saturday 19th/Sunday 20th December 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

S Scotland

England

Wales

Channel Islands

THREATS

Wind gusts to up to 55-60mph; isolated tornadoes; isolated CG lightning; heavy snow

SYNOPSIS

Well-marked Arctic front surging southwards this afternoon and overnight beneath a sharpening upper trough. This brings the risk of marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes, as well as CG lightning. Additionally, heavy snow is accompanying the front, bringing blizzard conditions, and the risk of very icy roads overnight.

Forecaster: RPK.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

[Bristawl Si]

Hi - - Yes, that's somewhat the expectation. The snowfall (i.e., later tonight - not these recent minor flurries) will be essentially a story further east along the M4 (Swindon eastwards) whereas we're largely expecting rain and sleet for Bristol and environs tonight, BUT it's rather knife-edge in terms of the spatial discrimination of PPN type falling away from the coast. The latest NAE output tends to split the front as it sinks southwards past the Welsh Marches, with snow risk continuing largely eastwards thereonwards, albeit still offering a minor snow signal for lowland areas around the Bristol Channel. But for the most part, the high-res modelling wants to call the outcome as rain / sleet for the Westcountry westwards of ca. Chippenham, with the exception of highest ground.

The real story for us is not disruptive snow (but it never really was with this evolution) - it's the risk of ice. Freezing light rain possible later this evening and for sure - irrespective of PPN type - whatever has fallen by dawn tomorrow will make for some very treacherous conditions on many untreated rural and urban roads.

Let's see what the next NAE makes of things.... it might revert to the solution we had at first today, suggestive of a more coherent and somewhat heavier band of PPN into Bristol for around an hour towards midnight.

Best

Ian

Thanks to one of our local weather forecasters for posting. Yes, it's been looking like rain for BTL and the area, with Swindon eastwards getting any snow - i guess the Cotswolds may have a chance of wet snow. The models have been consistently forecasting this for last 24 hours - i suppose some of us were hoping that the colder air with the precipitation might shift slightly westwards by tonite, but alas, not looking so.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just having some light rain, drizzle here in South Wales, i have a good feeling though after the band clears there will be snow showers around.

[Wilxy]

Been snowing here for an hour now :lol: