North West Cold Spell Discussion

[k19]

I agree, I think some are expecting LIA conditions. A reality check is in order!!

I suppose it is the christmas pudding...

Wait, edit, i put M_odern E_ra not christmas pudding!

Edited December 21, 2009 by K.1000

[Backtrack]

Talk of "ice weeks" is OTT sensationalism. Glacier Point suggested a January which may be 0.5 to 1.5C below average, which is entirely plausible in my view, but in no way suggests ice weeks. Just something a bit colder and snowier than we've been used to in recent years.

What happened to everyone forecasting one of the mildest Decembers and on record and a mild January? (Including Ian Brown).

[k19]

What happened to everyone forecasting one of the mildest Decembers and on record and a mild January? (Including Ian Brown).

Well, untill last week it was... I doubt this will happen again this winter. Not in the christmas pudding

[meerkat63]

can you explain this stratospheric stuff to me?

Solar Cycles is correct - GP is the one to ask. There is a separate thread 'stratospheric temperature watch' for this also and I think i recall digging out some info. from the learners area earlier too.

Hope that helps - if only a bit!

[Thundery wintry showers]

They were wrong- as happens to all of us sometimes. Including myself (yes, I originally went for a mild December).

[AderynCoch]

Sadly that streamer from Cardigan Bay looks like it's ground to a halt. Cader Idris must be getting a pasting right now.

I'm badly in need of a northwesterly.

Edited December 21, 2009 by AderynCoch

[Backtrack]

Well, untill last week it was... I doubt this will happen again this winter. Not in the christmas pudding

So you don't think England will get more snow this winter?

I bloody do

Sadly that streamer from Cardigan Bay looks like it's ground to a halt. Cader Idris must be getting a pasting right now.

I'm badly in need of a northwesterly.

We SHOULD get our snow tomorrow as the wind switches to a more westerly direction for a time tomorrow allowing showers to feed in again from the Irish Sea.

[SP1986]

I find it difficult to believe we would go from this cold spell into another cold spell without a mild spell inbetween.

Focusing on the here and now though it is currently 0.4C and dropping fairly rapidly, but this years lowest temperature of -4.2C (back in January) is almost certain to be broken tonight.

[k19]

So you don't think England will get more snow this winter?

I bloody do

We SHOULD get our snow tomorrow as the wind switches to a more westerly direction for a time tomorrow allowing showers to feed in again from the Irish Sea.

Well, I hope so, but the last time i had this much was back in 1996 and it only lasted 2 days then. I really just can't see it happening. The rest of the northwest might, but not me

[Backtrack]

I find it difficult to believe we would go from this cold spell into another cold spell without a mild spell inbetween.

Focusing on the here and now though it is currently 0.4C and dropping fairly rapidly, but this years lowest temperature of -4.2C (back in January) is almost certain to be broken tonight.

Radio City going for a 1c min tonight. LMAO!

0.5c here now. Rapid drop!

[Solar Cycles]

I find it difficult to believe we would go from this cold spell into another cold spell without a mild spell inbetween.

Focusing on the here and now though it is currently 0.4C and dropping fairly rapidly, but this years lowest temperature of -4.2C (back in January) is almost certain to be broken tonight.

Not impossible, but unlikely. I can see only less cold air affecting Northern areas, before we see another plunge from the North East.

[Snowmad79]

I say we get back to NW norm now and bring in the proper atlantic stuff. We'll get all the ppn and cloud we ever wanted then. I mean tbh doesn matter what direction cold hits us there is just no sustained ppn. All year round the NW get clouds and it rains virutally non stop even during summer then come the winter coldness we spotted here n there and end up with dry SUNNY DAYS

And yep I give up radar watching now... beautifull clear skies above and barely a whisp of cloud in sight. -1.1c

[AderynCoch]

We SHOULD get our snow tomorrow as the wind switches to a more westerly direction for a time tomorrow allowing showers to feed in again from the Irish Sea.

Timing is everything. If they don't come during the night or the early hours then I don't want them to come at all, as they'll likely fall as rain.

Nothing worse than getting rain when it's snowing nearby.

[Solar Cycles]

I say we get back to NW norm now and bring in the proper atlantic stuff. We'll get all the ppn and cloud we ever wanted then. I mean tbh doesn matter what direction cold hits us there is just no sustained ppn. All year round the NW get clouds and it rains virutally non stop even during summer then come the winter coldness we spotted here n there and end up with dry SUNNY DAYS

And yep I give up radar watching now... beautifull clear skies above and barely a whisp of cloud in sight. -1.1c

If it's like a January 1984, when we had a long fetch stretching all the way back to Canada, then yeah that would be fantastic. Otherwise we would end up with inevitable snow to rain scenario, followed by weeks and weeks of mild wet mush!

[Snowmad79]

Timing is everything. If they don't come during the night or the early hours then I don't want them to come at all, as they'll likely fall as rain.

Nothing worse than getting rain when it's snowing nearby.

Actually there is ... being stuck with dry clear cold nights while those soddin southerners get pasted all night again !. Do they have to have teh best weather all year round ?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Most of these southerners are getting pasted with sleet or even rain- conditions on that frontal zone are extremely marginal, more so than in north-west England where it has clearly been predominantly snow away from the coastal fringes.

North-west England has seen plenty of showers today, but as is normally the case with sunshine and showers, some places get plenty of showers and others see hardly any. C'est la vie I'm afraid... but if you haven't seen many showers today, you have a fair chance of seeing some during the next two days which will continue the theme of sunshine and snow showers.

[Snowmad79]

If it's like a January 1984, when we had a long fetch stretching all the way back to Canada, then yeah that would be fantastic. Otherwise we would end up with inevitable snow to rain scenario, followed by weeks and weeks of mild wet mush!

Yeah but pre 98 most winter falls saw not just randon/ sporadic 30 mins showers but days on end of snowfall lasting hours at a time aswell as colder temps, 5 ft icicles 12 ft drifts .. you name it and I might sound ungreatfull but an half hour event giving 4" is nothing to what ive seen in the past. Even in 2001 I walked home from work one day in snow tracks the local farmer had made and the sides were up to my chest.

Dont mind me just having a quick tantrum

[Backtrack]

Most of these southerners are getting pasted with sleet or even rain- conditions on that frontal zone are extremely marginal, more so than in north-west England where it has clearly been predominantly snow away from the coastal fringes.

North-west England has seen plenty of showers today, but as is normally the case with sunshine and showers, some places get plenty of showers and others see hardly any. C'est la vie I'm afraid... but if you haven't seen many showers today, you have a fair chance of seeing some during the next two days which will continue the theme of sunshine and snow showers.

Do I have a chance Ian?

[thewirral]

Do I have a chance Ian?

The wirral has no chance

[LiverBird]

Do I have a chance Ian?

If you don't, South Liverpool certainly doesn't! Fingers skeptically crossed!

[weatherobsuk]

Now I wasnt suggesting "weeks" of -15'c temps for the South, with Snow as deep as your neck and bringing the entire infrastructure to a halt. But something akin to the likes of Feb and early March of this year where Temperature minimums were averaging out daily lower than 0'c for more than a week at any one time.

It wont quite be the "Day after Tomorrow" scenario, but something were seeing now.

With S.W.E's the only frustrating thing about the phenomena is that we dont know its occuring until after the mean temps have regained their seasonal average again that we can say the Temperature Anomalies seen have been as a result of the Stratospheric Influence.

Already Moscow and Washington DC have seen major temperature drops out of the Northerly blocking, its more than just co-incidence and seasonal averaging.

The UK is just lucky now as our impact has been lessened with the influence being dropped as result of this weekends Cold Front moving down bringing Arctic weather which has allowed Atlantic flow to become sustained again in the upper FL250 layer, anywhere else in Europe right now that layer is dry and is still giving extreme Siberian conditions.

[James M]

Yeah but pre 98 most winter falls saw not just randon/ sporadic 30 mins showers but days on end of snowfall lasting hours at a time aswell as colder temps, 5 ft icicles 12 ft drifts .. you name it and I might sound ungreatfull but an half hour event giving 4" is nothing to what ive seen in the past. Even in 2001 I walked home from work one day in snow tracks the local farmer had made and the sides were up to my chest.

Dont mind me just having a quick tantrum

You only got 4" ? considering you don't live far from me, I would have though you would get similar depth to here, but I suppose that's the hit and miss nature of showers for you.

I'm hoping for some really cold temps tonight, don't think we'll get as low as yesterday morning but who knows with a thick snow cover!

[Solar Cycles]

Yeah but pre 98 most winter falls saw not just randon/ sporadic 30 mins showers but days on end of snowfall lasting hours at a time aswell as colder temps, 5 ft icicles 12 ft drifts .. you name it and I might sound ungreatfull but an half hour event giving 4" is nothing to what ive seen in the past. Even in 2001 I walked home from work one day in snow tracks the local farmer had made and the sides were up to my chest.

Dont mind me just having a quick tantrum

No problem, I've had to wait 14 years for this today, and all I've got is a paltry 5" ( snow that is :blink: ). Still I made a prediction earlier, that this winter will be similar to 78/79, due to the similar synoptic's! :blink:

[Snowmad79]

You only got 4" ? considering you don't live far from me, I would have though you would get similar depth to here, but I suppose that's the hit and miss nature of showers for you.

I'm hoping for some really cold temps tonight, don't think we'll get as low as yesterday morning but who knows with a thick snow cover!

Well 4 to 5 " lying and well over my boots on the grass and other areas. No doubt deeps in places but areas like Denshaw - Delph and saddleworth are actually in the pennines where as Im just on the edge .

RE moscow and usa temps ... Yep I understand the Strat warming played its part by displacing and segmenting the PV but it was segments of the PV that dropped into those areas via troughs that caused there amazing weather I believe. Oh and dont get me wrong I was well aware of this cold snap and expected reload weeks ago, Im not for second going to deny this winter could turn out as special of old it just hasnt pared up with FEB this year as of yet in my part of the region.

You guys seen the Motorway snow fests on the traffic cams doon sooth ? AMAZING!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Do I have a chance Ian?

Possibly but it will be marginal by the extreme coastal fringe. You will certainly see some showers over the next two days but they may fall as a wintry mix rather than as snow.