General Model Output Discussion Tuesday December 22Nd:

[mushymanrob]

good grief! .... the 12z gfs must be the most wintry ive seen for many years, the evolution of which does seem very plausable..

well if we are going to have something wintry, lets have a decent one!

[Snow Queen one]

Newbie question - Didnt we see models like these a week / two weeks ago showing (i quote the above) 'severve outbreak of polar air', and it never arrived in the reliable? All we got was a something very watered down.

I presume we look into FI to see new trends and patterns, but going by this week, when i thought it was to get really really cold, again it didnt come off.

Just a question - how long did we actually get easterly winds over the last ten days?

I don't know about you but it went down to -7 where i was last night i don't call that warm i call that very very cold. We have had snow on the ground for six days so far and despite rain today it is still here. This cold spell was well predicted and if another one is due it could well be worse as the cold air is already here so the temp can only get colder. I know you prob have not had the weather we have but you only need to see the news to see this has been a very cold spell of weather which has caught a lot of people unawares.

Edited December 23, 2009 by Snow Queen one

[snowlover2009]

fipping heck have you seen the new year charts! If ecm keeps hold of what is happening up in greenland at the start of the run, i predict a stonking ecm too. this is just too much lol. its going to be very interesting indeed.

the regards to snow next week, i would say anywhere midlands northwards would be just totally snowed in. and all the snow dumpings what follow would add to the extremely snowy conditions. very exciting indeed. those who are moaning for cold and snow, need to stop looking at the charts because it will be harder to get much better than some of these stonking runs.

i have just got to say whether its rain or snow places get, its gonna be interesting to see the pictures, this is something i cannot wait to see. could be mind blowing and this should transport people back to the 70s

Edited December 23, 2009 by snowlover2009

[aspire27]

I don't know about you but it went down to -7 where i was last night i don't call that warm i call that very very cold. We have had snow on the ground for six days so far and despite rain today it is still here. This cold spell was well predicted and if another one is due it could well be worse as the cold air is already here so the temp can only get colder. I know you prob have not had the weather we have but you only need to see the news to see this has been a very cold spell of weather which has caught a lot of people unawares.

Thank you for the reply. It was -7 here too just south of Bristol. It just amazes me how we live on such a small island that the whole of the country never gets effected, your two hours drive from me with totally different weather conditions..anyway

As you say with the cold already here, the next cold spell shown on the models might produce something for all of us.

[TEITS]

GEM joins in with the fun. We all know what would happen if there was a +168 chart. I thought I would post this model as some have been saying how reliable it is.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

Edited December 23, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Hairy Celt]

GFS;

GEM:

UKMO:

But when they all agree, maybe

[snowlover2009]

GFS;

GEM:

UKMO:

But when they all agree, maybe

what do you mean when they all agree? they do agree on something, what could be pretty spectacular. Ecm and 18z will be the ones to watch.

[Barb]

GEM joins in with the fun. We all know what would happen if there was a +168 chart. I thought I would post this model as some have been saying how reliable it is.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

Wales blizzard?

[80sWeather]

If this comes off then once again the GFS has done very well,it picked up on the current cold spell at least a week before it started, once again it has called this one and the other models are playing catch up.

[Cloud 10]

Time to watch those iceland ensembles again,nice to see the operational and the control runs agreeing on a big pressure rise.

Great stuff from gfs and ukmo this evening,can the ecm make it a full house?ECM wetterzentrale

[Frosty.]

the next cold spell shown on the models might produce something for all of us.

The only difference is the north will be affected first instead of southeast england but eventually it would even itself out. UKMO 12z is excellent from T+96 in scotland.

[rmc1987]

what do you mean when they all agree? they do agree on something, what could be pretty spectacular. Ecm and 18z will be the ones to watch.

What is it that's spectacular about them?.....what are they saying? I'm not really sure how to read and analyse them.

Cheers

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

[NorthantsSnow]

Very unusual charts. Yep--this winter is going to be a very snowy one I feel based on the general mood of the models and synoptics at play.

[03jtrickey]

WTF????

Is this even remotely plausible? That LP seems to just develop out of nowhere. BFTP said there was a signal for a large LP system. Looks very odd though.

Still, a nice NWly, with good ridging and Atlantic blocking, and strong GH

Edited December 23, 2009 by 03jtrickey

[Eugene]

According to some ECM 12Z is poor tonight, what a load of to*h, looks great to me.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?23-0

[azores92]

According to some ECM 12Z is poor tonight, what a load of to*h, looks great to me.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?23-0

its not bad at all, i dont know what the fuss is about there, a prominent greenie high, mid atlantic ridge, and a low swinging down from the north.

[snowfish]

According to some ECM 12Z is poor tonight, what a load of to*h, looks great to me.

http://www.meteociel...M1-216.GIF?23-0

Yeah, looks ok....all models showing another snowy outlook after around 28th Dec., why not?!

[cheeky_monkey]

intersting that the whole of the northern hemisphere looks cold on this chart...very unusual

[cooling climate]

ECM gets there in the end but the way it punches a hole through the vortex does not look as

plausible as the UKMO and GFS run even though the idea is the same.

The run is a little less progressive than the other previously mentioned models so perhaps a

compromise between the this and the other two.

Just seen the t240 chart and what a corker it is. This would probably be a colder run than the

GFS.

Edited December 23, 2009 by cooling climate

[03jtrickey]

A very different output for the UK by 240 compared to the 0Z, way out in FI. Both charts have some similarities though, both have two LP systems in the mid Atlantic, to the west of an Atlantic blocking high pressure. They also both have strong northern blocking (although a stronger GH on the 12Z), and are both cold solutions.

0Z

Is that the polar vortex just to our northeast on the 12Z?

[Frosty.]

According to some ECM 12Z is poor tonight, what a load of to*h, looks great to me.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?23-0

The ECM 12z goes a bit pear shaped between T+168 & 192 hours but then pulls out all the stops later on but it does have a cold shot developing from around sunday up north and then further south before the atlantic high cuts off the cold flow...hopefully only briefly but it shows the huge level of uncertainty compared to the gfs 12z which just blasts down a bitter N'ly for many days unbroken.

[swfc]

The 240 hour chart on ecm is incredible.Plus the high over greenland holds its ground.

[snowlover2009]

i think the ecm is the most confusing model, for me anyway. it is so weird how that high looked like it was sink, then magically it produces a proper greenland high also, i'm surprised it has not been mentioed, but the main low for early next week stays in the atlantic, so not giving us the proper rain and snow like was being suggested

Edited December 23, 2009 by snowlover2009

[snowlover2009]

hi, if you look at 168 hrs on ecm, is that a little low next east yorkshire? it looks that way to me, wouldn't that bring some significant snow?

Edited December 23, 2009 by snowlover2009