General Model Output Discussion Thursday December 24Th:

[kold weather]

I'm not going to be paying too much attention to the models tomorrow as there will likely be a small reduction in data, esp over the cruical areas IMO.

Anyway, merry xmas everyone!

At least we don't have this!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1988/Rrea00119881225.gif

[Supercell]

Merry Christmas all. Hope you have a good one

We really have been treated to some very special model outputs. This is the first winter on Net-weather that I have seen such consistency with all runs keeping promise of cold and snow. Long may it continue. And, hopefully, the BIG event is just around the corner.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Supercell

[yamkin]

Merry Xmas to the Netweather gang!! :lol: :lol:

I have a feeling Netweather are going to get record breaking Model Output Discussion hits during Xmas/Boxing days

[swilliam]

Nope - they are the same. You sure you are comparing like with like?

No I wasn't because meteociel do not do one for Aberdeen. This is the one for Perth -a cold and a mild outlier!

There was a similar one for Northampton earlier

Edited December 25, 2009 by swilliam

[mesocyclone]

I hope the mods forgive me for being off topic but I wanted to put this post on this thread due to its popularity.

I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas. Its been a wonderful experience these past few weeks on this forum and long may it continue.

And a merry x mas to you.

Thanks for all your informative posts and enthusiasm.

long may the cold continue!

[swilliam]

I'm not going to be paying too much attention to the models tomorrow as there will likely be a small reduction in data, esp over the cruical areas IMO.

Anyway, merry xmas everyone!

At least we don't have this!

http://www.wetterzen...00119881225.gif

quite

[BranMan]

It's all been great reading. I'm new here. We've had 2 unforecast snow event shere in Cwmbran Sotuh East Wales and both have caused traffic chaos. the snow is till on the gorund, about 2 inches and the temp is 0.2C with lots of fog.

A merry merry christmas to everyone and please keep up the good work during the festivities as I will be at least one reading....and many more no doubt...

Thanks

steve

[A Wintry Mix]

Im a long time lurker,really enjoyed last few days even though ive had no snow!

many thanks to everyone.

merry xmas to you all, and may you all get what you want in the next few days!

Edited December 25, 2009 by hopeitsnows

[swfc]

merry xmas guys.Big thanks to GP,TEITS,SM,and anyone ive forget.Great input buy these guys and the netweather team ete.Great help to thwe likes of me.Great model output and looking forward to the new year.

[swilliam]

no one seems to have mentioned the 120 fax

Shows the low and front in the correct positions (for a battleground) but 528Dam is too far North - this looks like rain except on hills. Should turn to snow when the low moves through but I am not sure how much.

[mesocyclone]

Merry x mas to all!

Have a great day, looks like chance of white stuff for some overnight!

Meso

[kold weather]

To be fair though the UKMO is probably the furtherest north of the models with regards to the thickness...however the thickness really isn't the most important aspect in this evolution...we are going to get a cold undercut develop and that will make things very interesting. I'd imagine for a good portion of the Midlands that could get rather interesting...I'm willing to bet this low trends a little further south, thats what tends to happen with these sorts of set-ups quite often.

[Tim Bland]

I was a bit dissapointed by the 18z until I saw the ensembles! The whole run IMO is fit for the bin! UKMO fax is very encouraging I would agree that south midlands is the bullseye at the moment but this can and probably will change over the comming days. Just seen the warning for Snow in Beds and Bucks tonight where did that come from?

[Craigers]

Well ive got to admit this year has been good on the forum and thanks to all the usual guys for giving clear analysis and merry xmas to you all :smiliz58: :w00t:

[mezzacyclone]

no one seems to have mentioned the 120 fax

Shows the low and front in the correct positions (for a battleground) but 528Dam is too far North - this looks like rain except on hills. Should turn to snow when the low moves through but I am not sure how much.

post 202 of this thread

[Cymro]

Pen-blwydd hapus iesu Grist

Happy Birthday Jesus Christ.

[stoke weather watch]

Can i wish everyone at Net Weather a very merry christmas and all the best for 2010.

Have a great day

[johnny1972]

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL ON NET WEATHER !!!!!

MAY THE COLD CONTINUE

AND CAN I JUST SAY THANKS TO ALL WHO PUT THE TIME AND EFFORT IN ON THIS FORUM TO ENHANCE THE KNOWLEDGE OF PURE AMATEURS LIKE MYSELF !!

Edited December 25, 2009 by johnny1972

[Eugene]

I was a bit dissapointed by the 18z until I saw the ensembles! The whole run IMO is fit for the bin! UKMO fax is very encouraging I would agree that south midlands is the bullseye at the moment but this can and probably will change over the comming days.

Yes tim as you rightly so best to bin 18Z like we usually should as its a very tempremental run as is the 06Z, you`ll be pleased to know the 00Z is much better and conor might just get his snowstorm maybe several next week

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1621.png

OMG amazing 18Z ensembles i mean no mild spell at all for the midlands northwards for the next two weeks, pretty incredible spell of cold weather this is.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Amazing GFS 00Z OP run too cold right until the end, god what a christmas present the runs are this morning

Edited December 25, 2009 by Eugene

[West is Best]

Frame the 0z GFS. It doesn't get much better than that for cold lovers, and amongst the best runs I've seen since the internet, as Eugene just noted: great Christmas present!

One thing I particularly like about this is the accelerated start. We're now looking at just T96 to T114 for the channel low to align. Oh and a second thing (Spanish Inquisition sketch moment) I love the way the cold from the north is embedding faster and deeper south, setting up the undercut much more quickly and dynamically.

What synoptics.

Edited December 25, 2009 by West is Best

[mackerel sky]

Incredible model output... only really Boxing Day to get through then!

Thanks to all the brilliant contributors on the Forum! A very happy Christmas to everyone... I was member 500 or so and after all these years I still love this place!

All my best wishes, Anthony.

[dallas]

happy Christmas all, what a great run the 0z is.

Couple more days we will be talking about details

[KTtom]

Mery xmas from the GFS if you like blizzards and 10 days of sub-zero temperatures....must be that missing data

[Snowstorm1]

Merry Christmas All What a treat the GFS has produced for us cold and snow lovers this morning.

[SLEETY]

Amazing run from gfs,we would all be digging ourselves out of the snow.

Severe blizzards for the South eventually with deep drifts to join our Northern friends in the chaos

Are we heading for one of the most memorable cold spells in our history,i wouldn't bet against it now thats for sure.

Nice xmas present from gfs,have a good one folks.

Edited December 25, 2009 by SLEETY