General Model Output Discussion Thursday December 24Th:

[Mattster1]

merry christmas one and all, the models continue to save us a late xmas present until next week!!!!

your not kidding. if this comes off the west country will be a snowfest. im actually contemplainting snow chains as this winter seems very diffferant to anything we have had for a long time.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Mattster1

[swilliam]

Merry Christmas ... Massive scatter starting to appear in the ensembles very early on in the run 28th/29th . They were in 100% agreement yesterday .. now they look like they may be thinking actually... maybe not . Hopefully Christmas data issues .

Merry Christmas Everybody,

High Chris,

The spread is because of variations in the timing, position and angle of the LP with its elongated trough at the beginning of next week. This was also apparent in all the ensembles for yesterday - I am not quite sure why you think it was progged to be cold by all ensemble members.

There was quite a lot of discussion about this on here yesterday. Current MetO forecast is for the ppn to start as rain and then change to snow.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Merry Christmas Everybody,

High Chris,

The spread is because of variations in the timing, position and angle of the LP with its elongated trough at the beginning of next week. This was also apparent in all the ensembles for yesterday - I am not quite sure why you think it was progged to be cold by all ensemble members.

There was quite a lot of discussion about this on here yesterday. Current MetO forecast is for the ppn to start as rain and then change to snow.

I only saw yesterday's ooz ensembles and they all went 100% for cold from the 28th - 3rd Jan . Christmas eve is a very busy day for me and missed the rest of the runs

[cyclonic happiness]

Merry Christmas all!!

Lovely to wake up and see these sorts of charts on xmas morning, let's just hope it all comes off and we get a gloriously white new year!

[Barb]

GFS and ECM have the low further south while the UKMO are being party poopers as usual and bring it further North with mainly rain further south. Who's right??

Edited December 25, 2009 by Barb

[Solar Cycles]

Merry Xmas to you all, and what fantastic charts to view!

[Duane S.]

GFS and ECM have the low further south while the UKMO are being party poopers as usual and bring it further North with mainly rain further south. Who's right??

Yep, we need to watch the UKMO fall in line a bit as their output would be rain for me and many others in the South. ECM is more like it and GFS 00z is absolutely outrageous (but wow, some eye candy though)and would bring much of the Southern half of the UK to a complete standstill. Unfortunately I think it is being too progressive but who knows??

[SMU]

The 06z says 'hello' to TEITS house & the southern midlands /SW + wales - beginning to home in on smaller margins of error, however the trend is still 'south'-

some epic snowfall totals in the heart of the PPN....

Home Counties along the North side of the thames looking set,South side & kent / essex a nervous wait-

either way we are almost home & dry on a greenland high.....

S

[Mark Bayley]

The 06z says 'hello' to TEITS house & the southern midlands /SW + wales - beginning to home in on smaller margins of error, however the trend is still 'south'-

some epic snowfall totals in the heart of the PPN....

Home Counties along the North side of the thames looking set,South side & kent / essex a nervous wait-

either way we are almost home & dry on a greenland high.....

S

The great thing about this run is everyone sees some snow with the amount of precipitation that's around!

Happy Christmas Steve

Edited December 25, 2009 by mark bayley

[Geordiesnow]

Thankfully the 06Z run has not trended towards the UKMO regarding where it puts the low and keeps it to the South, would not mind if it's a tad further South still but that could happen in future runs.

People in the SE would hope the low is further South so you can get in the colder air as being so close to the low, it takes longer before the region gets into the cold air.

However some nice xmas presents from the models on a cold fans POV. And merry xmas too you all!

[Barb]

06z takes it even further south than the 00z. I think the UKMO are wrong...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OMG, GFS 00Z is stunning :lol:

Blizzards in the S/SE :lol:

Joe B from AccuWeather is also going along with the very cold model setup:

WELL HERE WE GO AGAIN! SEVERE COLD LOOMING FOR MUCH OF EUROPE FIRST 2 WEEKS OF THE NEW YEAR!

Joe B is spot on IMO. That was my Jan update a few days ago. The warning shots were fired across the boughs and we approach the real deal....two weeks of lying lowland UK snow. This may setup a sub 2c possibly sub 1c CET month...............hoooooooolllddddd on folks because this ain't going away, no sudden collapse of the models output. One point though, I do think that initially the LP could start like ECM and UKMO which is north of GFS but rapid cold digging in very early Jan for whole UK and Ireland.....and the rest will take care of itself.

BFTP

Edited December 25, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[arnott]

we dont all live in the south you know guys-theres a fair few of us who live north of the midlands!!

[southbank]

so the general theme is carried on in the 06z output of potential of more cold/snowy weather.

interesting to see the low is trending further south on each run , would be very interesting to see how the UKMO does with this low over subsquent run.

purely from IMBY living in sutton sw london would love to see that low a tad further south but guess have to wait to sunday/monday for more clarity.

merry christmas !! happy snowy new year

[Wales123098]

we dont all live in the south you know guys-theres a fair few of us who live north of the midlands!!

You had your fun last week lol, Weve had barely anything down here just the odd unforecasted lucky snow showers. I think all areas will have snow but more so in the SW, South Wales and South Mids.

[cj114]

Joe B is spot on IMO. That was my Jan update a few days ago. The warning shots were fired across the boughs and we approach the real deal....two weeks of lying lowland UK snow. This may setup a sub 2c possibly sub 1c CET month...............hoooooooolllddddd on folks because this ain't going away, no sudden collapse of the models output. One point though, I do think that initially the LP could start like ECM and UKMO which is north of GFS but rapid cold digging in very early Jan for whole UK and Ireland.....and the rest will take care of itself.

BFTP

Joe B has been spot on, so far, no reason to think he won't be from now on either.

Can't help thinking about my Gas bill though. lol

[Barb]

Personally I think the GFS now has it a bit far too south, I think somewhere between GFS and UKMO is most likely, perhaps something like the 00z or ECM.

interesting to see the low is trending further south on each run , would be very interesting to see how the UKMO does with this low over subsquent run.

I don't really think its trending south each run, its just chopping and changing as it inevitably will. I still think my earlier punt of Wales/Midlands is the sweet spot. From an IMBY standpoint I sure hope it is lol.

Edited December 25, 2009 by Barb

[snowmadchrisuk]

You had your fun last week lol, Weve had barely anything down here just the odd unforecasted lucky snow showers. I think all areas will have snow but more so in the SW, South Wales and South Mids.

South Midlands did ok last week as well , Leicester is the only place I know that hasn't had any snow at all. I hope we get something this time.

[Methuselah]

Joe B is spot on IMO. That was my Jan update a few days ago. The warning shots were fired across the boughs and we approach the real deal....two weeks of lying lowland UK snow. This may setup a sub 2c possibly sub 1c CET month...............hoooooooolllddddd on folks because this ain't going away, no sudden collapse of the models output. One point though, I do think that initially the LP could start like ECM and UKMO which is north of GFS but rapid cold digging in very early Jan for whole UK and Ireland.....and the rest will take care of itself.

BFTP

Merry Chistmas, Fred! :lol:

IMO, although the weather has turned cold (just like Joe's forecast, well-done Joe!) the synoptics seem, to me at least, to be rather different. Wasn't Joe's expectation that the source of cold would from the East; whilst, in actual fact, a fair share of it seems to be originating 'oop norf'?

Only detail, I know, and Mr B's forecast for the US has also turned-out very well indeed! Maybe, he was also a bit nonplussed by just how much this winter's synoptics appear have turned-back-the-clock??

Merry Xmas Everyone

Some amazing charts this morning, if some of this output comes off though I think the general populous will have become heartily sick of cold weather by early Jan.

Merry Christmas, Ian... :lol:

I'm sure I will. I was in 1982! :lol:

[Costa Del Fal]

The 00Z GFS was a massive Christmas present for here! The 06z still isnt bad. I think it will be rather close to what the 06z GFS thinks. I think Wales, The Midlands and maybe parts of Northern England could see a rather good dumping but im leaving specifics and proper judgements about this until about Sunday at the earliest. In the mean time im off to enjoy a great Christmas! Hope you have a good day too!

[Frosty.]

The 6z gfs equally as impressive as the 00z and if anything, pushes the scandi trough further west than the 00z later in the run but the uk takes a direct hit from the north pole from the middle of next week onwards. I'm sure there will be several troughs embedded within the arctic flow which will bring snow showers to areas which would normally remain bone dry in a standard N'ly, this is far from standard and is quite incredible in potential duration, it just seems to be a locked in pattern with a substantial greenland high and good southward ridging with a vigorous scandi trough which manages to sustain itself for days and days...could britain become snowbound

[snowlover2009]

people are saying the low is further south, i cannot say i really noticed, but either if it is, its showing some severe weather from the central southern sawthe right up to north yorks! snow snow snow! cold cold cold!

all the models deliver some very severe weather and this needs to be made caution to the public indeed, as it could turn out to be the worst snow event for a significant time. but still some time to go. anyone seen that quite unstable northerly around new years eve, a lot of snow from that indeed.

[SMU]

people are saying the low is further south, i cannot say i really noticed, but either if it is, its showing some severe weather from the central southern sawthe right up to north yorks! snow snow snow! cold cold cold!

all the models deliver some very severe weather and this needs to be made caution to the public indeed, as it could turn out to be the worst snow event for a significant time. but still some time to go. anyone seen that quite unstable northerly around new years eve, a lot of snow from that indeed.

The 06Z trended around 50-100 Miles south in terms of Cold air-

At t123 the -5c line - which will be the approx location for the snow is across the M4 corridoor-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1232.gif

If you review the 117 chart on the 12z then that will move either north or South-

Along the western boundry of that line ( I would plump for Southern midlands + southern wales would see around a foot of snow poss more) although for a change the key variable isnt the PPN amount its where the boundry is......

Can someone put a link up to the wetter or weather online snow depth link-

also an image of the total snow depth at t144 for the UK from the 06z..- I would go for a fat 40 or 50 somewhere along the M4 route heading west- cardiff ish......

For this to be an EPIC event & more widespread we need a slightly better curvature of flow + cold undercutting over the north sea- this would be driven by the trough to the NE of scotland...........

Steve

Edited December 25, 2009 by Steve Murr

[snowmadchrisuk]

The 06Z trended around 50-100 Miles south in terms of Cold air-

At t123 the -5c line - which will be the approx location for the snow is across the M4 corridoor-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1232.gif

If you review the 117 chart on the 12z then that will move either north or South-

Along the western boundry of that line ( I would plump for Southern midlands + southern wales would see around a foot of snow poss more) although for a change the key variable isnt the PPN amount its where the boundry is......

Can someone put a link up to the wetter or weather online snow depth link-

also an image of the total snow depth at t144 for the UK from the 06z..- I would go for a fat 40 or 50 somewhere along the M4 route heading west- cardiff ish......

For this to be an EPIC event & more widespread we need a slightly better curvature of flow + cold undercutting over the north sea- this would be driven by the trough to the NE of scotland...........

Steve

I really like the chart below.

Oh and is this the link you wanted Steve .

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PANEL=0&WMO=

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Happy christmas everyone!

Only one thing to say today and thats OMG.

BBC presenters now openly talking of another icy blast next week,if we get another week long cold spell this winter will have already gone down as one of the best of the 1980's,really retro charts and if anyone grumles i suggest they take a look at some of the charts from 1989 or 1998 and compare them to what we have now.

Lets hope some of the unlucky ones get pasted this time,im thinking midlands,SW,parts of Kent here.

All eyes on that low mon/tues next week.