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General Model Output Discussion Thursday December 24Th:

Methuselah

By Methuselah
in Spring Weather Discussion

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yamkin Experienced

yamkin

Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Posted

OMG, GFS 00Z is stunning :):shok:

Blizzards in the S/SE :):):):cold:

Joe B from AccuWeather is also going along with the very cold model setup:

WELL HERE WE GO AGAIN! SEVERE COLD LOOMING FOR MUCH OF EUROPE FIRST 2 WEEKS OF THE NEW YEAR!

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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Posted (edited)

I think there is a definitive cold progression going on here, which might actually increase the immediate cold but decrease the snow at first, although the devil will be in the detail. At the moment the south-west could be in big trouble. Not only is the centre of the low being pushed further south, on the ECM we now have some of the most astonishing easterly retrogression I can recall seeing, with an easterly at T168 raging out of Scandinavia across the UK and all the way to Canada!!! This in turn leads to a very cold northerly and the next major undercut potential at T240. The master-key here is, of course, the proper building Greenland high. With that controlling events we can sit back and enjoy the ride.

These are absolutely incredible synoptics.

Edited by West is Best
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yamkin Experienced

yamkin

Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Posted (edited)

ECM 00Z 168h 850hpa is looking :):):):cold:

post-2721-12617245608213_thumb.gif

GFS & UKMO 00Z are both identical & stunning :shok::):shok::)

They seem to be more progressive than ECMWF 00Z, but the synoptics is still there for a very cold end to December leading into a very cold January :cold::cold::cold:

Edited by yamkin
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Snowfan50 Newbie

Snowfan50

Posted
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate suits me very fine.
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
Posted

Merry christmas to everyone :). Im just hoping it comes off in north devon as here in barnstaple we have had very little snow so far.

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snowingman Newbie

snowingman

Posted
  • Location: Ancient city of Downpatrick Co Down
  • Location: Ancient city of Downpatrick Co Down
Posted

Well, lets just say this

If there is any snow addicted sad git out there and the only thing they want for Xmas is a white one, then these charts are your ultimate dream!!

Anyone see the movie "the day after tomorrow" - well in the christmas pudding - this is as close as it comes!!

lets get over the next 36 hours of plus temperatures then its going to freeze freeze freeze and let it snow snow snow

As an old cogger on these boards, for all you youn ins out there; these are magical in every respect

nothing more to say

( ps only on here because I be one of those sad gits who on Christmas morning at 7am has nothing much better to do .....!!)

Now... models.. don't go an ruin this for anyone, well not today anyway!!

bye and Merry Christmas to one and all

Ho ho ho ho

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

ECM 00Z 168h 850hpa is looking yahoo.gifclap.gifcold.gifcold.gif

post-2721-12617245608213_thumb.gif

Yes fantastic chart,more snow for especially the se againyahoo.gif .Nice ecm run again,looks similar to how this cold spell started first a bitter easterly then a very cold northerly.drinks.gif

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Polar Continental Seasoned

Polar Continental

Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
Posted

Merry Christmas everyone,

Mostly very cold runs from the models this morning, :) The GFS brings the cold air in very quickly, followed by the ECM and GEM, the UKMO is the warmest, projecting the low to take a more northerly track, but it does show sign of getting the cold air advected towards us at the end of the run.

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yamkin Experienced

yamkin

Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Posted

seasons greetings. great charts. i noticed carol k mentioned very cold next week with snow on her 6.57 forecast

I have also seen the BBC24 forecast, and Carol did mention it is going to get a lot colder next week with snow :cold::)

This ties in nicely with the models :):)

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Beverley Lass Experienced

Beverley Lass

Posted
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
  • Weather Preferences: Something good in all four seasons
  • Location: Near Beverley, East Yorks. (5 metres a.s.l.)
Posted

What am I doing here before my breakfast on

Xmas morning !? Heehee.

Happy Christmas All

Still loving the chat and info.

Oh and I have a weather station for a presie !! *woop.

Take care and enjoy.

(sorry OT, hope you'll excuse it Mods)

BL :)

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted (edited)

morning merry xmas all looking at the gfs update over night me thinks that the best present cold staying now deep into F1 get the spades we going to need it now were that turkey see you all in a couple of days HQ ORDERS family duties!! cold.gifcold.gifcold.gifhi.gif

Edited by tinybill
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Merry Christmas ... Massive scatter starting to appear in the ensembles very early on in the run 28th/29th . They were in 100% agreement yesterday .. now they look like they may be thinking actually... maybe not . Hopefully Christmas data issues :) .

t850Leicestershire.png

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rbw Newbie

rbw

Posted
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester
  • Location: Churchdown, Gloucester
Posted

Is it that scatter that is still causing the Netweather Forecast to say only a 30% ish chance of snow? It concerns me that this forecast continues to be so pesimistic?

Happy Christmas everyone

R

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted

before i go and be with the family this should make people smile

post-4629-12617297713313_thumb.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

:clap::clap::clap:

Merry xmas folks.Great model output this morning and probably the best ive seen on the net.Lets hope the models continue to stay in line and deliver the goods.Have a great day.

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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted

The potential from a channel low next week is staggering for this part of the world, but sadly it's a week away, Although with the winter set up as it is anything is possible.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Merry Christmas to everyone :clap:

The models are in a festive mood this morning with the GFS 00z showing a big freeze developing through early next week and becoming entrenched with a persistent arctic outbreak that just beggars belief. It really would be a serious wintry spell if it verified and would cause major disruption, a bit like parts of the usa are suffering at the moment. The ecm 00z is similar but there is a brief respite (still v.cold though) at the end of next week before a trough swings south to reboot a N'ly blast by T+240 hours. The ukmo 00z is a bit slower but the results would ultimately be the same. We have some snow problems today, n.ireland could see 2-4 inches later and then n.england and s.scotland a further covering, tomorrow looks a little milder in southern britain at 7-9c but temps should fall by sunday to nearer 6c whereas scotland will remain cold throughout with wintry showers but next week is going to be fun. :clap:

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AndyC741 Newbie

AndyC741

Posted
  • Location: Fakenham, Norfolk
  • Location: Fakenham, Norfolk
Posted (edited)

Merry Xmas to everyone on Netweather, lets hope Santa brings you what you want :clap::clap::clap:

PS, Models look fantastic this morning!!

Edited by AndyC741
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Rollo Aficionado

Rollo

Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland
Posted

Well the charts say it all this morning whether or not there is any info missing enjoy them and save them for posterity,but above all have a wonderful Christmas Day-Merry Merry Chrissy to one and all.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

merry christmas one and all, the models continue to save us a late xmas present until next week!!!!

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Mr Plough Apprentice

Mr Plough

Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Location: North Bristol
Posted

What a fantastic way to start Christmas day by viewing those wonderful charts (for cold lovers anyway).

Merry Christmas everyone and thanks to the members who make such a great contribution to this thread, its been a great place to be over the last few weeks (and years) long may it continue.

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

A very merry Christmas to all! :clap:

Yes lots of potential again this morning, seems that the North wont even see a warm up before more cold and snow sweeps in, maybe the far South East will be less favoured next week where the milder air hangs on, but its all going to change again by then anyway.

Am in Northern Italy for Christmas, arrived with heavy snow and freezing rain, -7c and 40cm of snow, after 36 hours of heavy rain and strong Westerly winds its all just about gone and currently 10c, ahhhh well.

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