General Model Output Discussion Thursday December 24Th:

[TEITS]

As its Christmas im going to take an early punt on the track of this LP. I have been watching the ensembles for my region and very slowly the track of this LP is being moved further S.

So my punt on the eventual track of this LP is this.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-132.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-144.png?12

Pretty confident this will be reflected on the ensembles in Cambs over the next few days.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091224/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

[kold weather]

IMO the UKMO is fine, its a slower evolution BUT the upper high is in a much better position then the GFS, so its all swings and roundabouts really to be honest and I'd suspect the UKMO would evolve into a much less risky set-up then the GFS down the line...

[Lewis]

Christ.. you guys still in the hustle bustle of the Model thread on Xmas eve!! Go spend time with your family guys, what will come will come, whether the charts shows it now or in in 3 days time

Nothing will change!!

Merry Xmas everyone!!!! HAVE A GOOD ONE! and don't get too drunk.

Over and out until Boxing day from me,

Bye

Edited December 24, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[TEITS]

Christ.. you guys still in the hustle bustle of the Model thread on Xmas eve!! Go spend time with your family guys, what will come will come, whether the charts shows it now or in in 3 days time

Nothing will change!!

Merry Xmas everyone!!!! HAVE A GOOD ONE! and don't get too drunk.

Over and out until Boxing day from me,

Bye

Yep and I shall still be posting on here tomorrow although this will probably be when my family have left in the evening. I reckon for some the models will be a welcome distraction from the family.

[Duncan McAlister]

Christ.. you guys still in the hustle bustle of the Model thread on Xmas eve!! Go spend time with your family guys, what will come will come, whether the charts shows it now or in in 3 days time

Nothing will change!!

Merry Xmas everyone!!!! HAVE A GOOD ONE! and don't get too drunk.

Over and out until Boxing day from me,

Bye

Yes I always like to have a Christmas break from the net on Xmas Day and Boxing Day too

Well the models look really promising for the period going into New Year, I've still got snow on the ground (although it's more ice now than snow) and it's freezing cold. Perfect

Have a great Christmas folks, let's Santa has brought more nice surprises on the models for when I return on the 27th.

[Cloud 10]

Have you been bashing one off when you see the charts? I know I have!

I wouldn't quite go that far,but whatever floats your boat!

The ensembles for aberdeen are in excellent agreement for an extended cold spell.They can of course change,but you will never see much better agreement than the chart above.

[beng]

As its Christmas im going to take an early punt on the track of this LP. I have been watching the ensembles for my region and very slowly the track of this LP is being moved further S.

So my punt on the eventual track of this LP is this.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-132.png?12

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-144.png?12

Pretty confident this will be reflected on the ensembles in Cambs over the next few days.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091224/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

Similar to ECM and GEM. I wish I could bank that solution!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Christ.. you guys still in the hustle bustle of the Model thread on Xmas eve!!

And they say there's no Christ in Christmas anymore.

[Shunter]

I've been observing the ensembles for London after every GFS run for the past three days. The warm up "hump" has diminished slowly with every run. The mean was about 7c two days ago on 28th, it is now about 2c with an increasing number of members bypassing this spell completely.

http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

There is also in excess of 80% of members now keeping the 850 temperature's around -5 or below through to the end of the run on the current 12z op.

So in terms of trending for the south of the UK it definitely seems we are moving in the right direction towards a cold synoptical pattern by eoy.

[kent]

even if ukmo came off, it there would likely to be a sustained cold spell, quite a good greenland high on 144 hrs chart IMO. But one thing what annoys me about these situations is, that it is always you lot in the south who make such a fuss by closing airports, media attention, 'don't go out'. go to america with 5 ft snow and they get on with it. and i say you in the south because in the north we just have to get on with it becuse no one cares. Its not the uk who come to a standstill, it is the south, trying to make a big deal like its the day after tomorrow. what would you be like if it was a 63 or 47 or 78 situation, god only knows. it is the same everytime snow is forecast, same headlines, same old story, it is getting old and old now. people know the flaming drill.

well then stop complaining and get on with it lol Merry xmas.

[meerkat63]

The reason being that as nick explained, having the low further south is better for a more sustained cold spell for everybody

It isn't just about who gets snow in their back garden because of the low - it is about the prospects for another cold spell following the low.

As azores 92 rightly has just said though, it is far too early to go into specifics/details about this anyway. It won't be till after xmas proper that there will be a better idea about these.

I could not agree more than I do. It is precisely because of the low that the cold is able to truly return and in that respect I personally would trade no snow from that particular event for a more sustained cold spell. Concerns still exist over the longer term regarding the polar vortex getting its act together but the models on the whole paint a fantastic picture and provide every reason for optimism.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well I will be following the models very sharply over Christmas , We have had no snow at all out of the last cold spell and have probably one of the most unluckiest place in the country. The setup that is showing is still scary because the mild air is so close it wouldn't take much to ruin southern englands chances. A few extra miles is nothing to GFS but it is everything to the uk.

[kold weather]

12z ECM has a rather poor angle for a snow event, you really want a flatter edge to the LP then what we see on this run.

Still overall evolution looks ok upto 144hrs, not quite as good as the UKMO but it should still get the job done as the colder air should start to filter south-westwards eventually.

[Cloud 10]

Can't see any problems with the ecm at +144,a one way ticket to cold.

[cooling climate]

I much prefer the trend of the UKMO and the ECM this evening with a quicker link up to the Arctic high

so there is less to go wrong.

I'm not to worried about the snow threat (will it wont it) scenario its the pattern that comes after that

counts and I think the ECM t168 chart kind of answers where the UKMO would be heading that is why

I think the UKMO was a very good run.

Euro's v the GFS tonight but either way its going to turn very cold and wintry to end the year and then on

into the new year.

Excellent.

[Cloud 10]

Ecm 12z is a big upgrade from the 00z with a huge -ve AO.

[rich1]

even if ukmo came off, it there would likely to be a sustained cold spell, quite a good greenland high on 144 hrs chart IMO. But one thing what annoys me about these situations is, that it is always you lot in the south who make such a fuss by closing airports, media attention, 'don't go out'. go to america with 5 ft snow and they get on with it. and i say you in the south because in the north we just have to get on with it becuse no one cares. Its not the uk who come to a standstill, it is the south, trying to make a big deal like its the day after tomorrow. what would you be like if it was a 63 or 47 or 78 situation, god only knows. it is the same everytime snow is forecast, same headlines, same old story, it is getting old and old now. people know the flaming drill.

Is this another one of these northern chip on shoulder scenarios... the reality is more people live in the south, they are less used to the cold weather = more disruption and more people affected by it when it occurs

I like the runs generally, suspect the evolution may slip southwards as the time comes but everywhere will be getting colder eventually in all probability. With any luck the milder hump on the London ensembls around the 29th will continue to diminish. Cold new year in prospect and northern areas dont warm up much at all

Edited December 24, 2009 by rich1

[TEITS]

Going to need a bloody big shovel if this comes off.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

NE Scotland would take an absolute hammering with that chart.

Edited December 24, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[swfc]

Going to need a bloody big shovel if this comes off.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

NE Scotland would take an absolute hammering with that chart.

Yep it would teits.So out to 240 hrs and where would that leave us in your opinion.Does the high look strong and in a favourable posistion to you man

[SnowBallz]

am aware of people in the south without snow, but many parts in the north of england have only had a few flurries and been unlcuky to get much. it seems to me all everyone gos on about in here is the snow for the south and the low stalling to the south. so this is annoying me a little. hoping ecm keeps the snow up north in favour for us too

With the greatest of respect, no amount of hoping is going to make a shot of difference to the weather - so it really doesn't matter what any of us say on here, we're just trying to interpret the different models. How can that annoy you?? The weather isn't X-Factor y'know!

[shuggee]

A refreshingly sensible post SnowBallz

Just a reminder this is the Model Discussion thread - please stay on topic

[rmc1987]

Going to need a bloody big shovel if this comes off.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

NE Scotland would take an absolute hammering with that chart.

That's what I'm trying to find out. I though it might be a North thing rather than the South. As I haven't a clue what the charts says. I'm guessing there'll be snow up North but little in South and South East?

Edited December 24, 2009 by rmc1987

[kold weather]

Well the 12z ECM is certainly not without interest, the PV merges again but the 12z ECM eventually forces the whole down our side of the N.Hemisphere in the latter reaches of the run.

At 240hrs we see a rather interesting chart with the whole PV slowly heading southwards, meanwhile a flabby upper low remains just west of the Azores and slowly slides eastwards with milder air coming up from its eastern flank, that could well end up in a big battleground set-up.

A very impressive looking 12z ECM, of course I'd still take the 0z run of the ECM because this run has more that could go wrong on it then that run.

[Cloud 10]

Fantastic ecm....>>>>Absolute 80s Player

[phil nw.]

Going to need a bloody big shovel if this comes off.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

NE Scotland would take an absolute hammering with that chart.

Many would see some snow from this pattern i think Dave.There`s likely to be minor trough`s in the flow.

A classic v.cold omega block from years ago.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1

After all the years on Netweather and before then Slowatch and it seems we at last we have a great chance of a real bitter spell in the middle of Winter that lasts for more than a few days.

Merry Christmas Dave and all.