Model Output Discussion

[Optimus Prime]

does any of the level headed people agree ?

Chris .

Yes don't worry we are listening! It does feel a tad repetitive some of the comments we get on every cold spell. Before the December cold spell we just had I thought some people were going to loose all sanity.

[snowlover2009]

Why are people putting so much faith in the UKMO? Same thing happened last night (though not as bad) and the Met Office dismissed their own model and put out completely different Fax charts.

I agree, i remember ukmo showing a barlett at 144hrs a week or 2 ago and we all were worried, no barlett at all.

Also the ukmo works better for midlands northwards, so it is not too disappointing to me.

I think your all over looking the fact that from +96 to it's +144 chart the UKMO is showing a massive Greenland high , and I have never known a Greenland high of that shape to give mild weather across the UK. I am getting very excited by the charts shown , does any of the level headed people agree ?

Chris .

yes i agree, the gfs and ukmo are better for southern end of northern england, likes of west yorks, south yorks, manchester.

[john w]

Cold spell will become cold snap. Think the meto are being watched beacuse they have consistantly shown this next cold spell wont be that great..others now coming in to line.

Im hedging my bets...the 18z will be awful for cold lovers...but we will see. I really dont think data issues are to blame, the other models have ramped up the cold perhaps too much.

[azores92]

I agree, i remember ukmo showing a barlett at 144hrs a week or 2 ago and we all were worried, no barlett at all.

Also the ukmo works better for midlands northwards, so it is not too disappointing to me.

yes i agree, the gfs and ukmo are better for southern end of northern england, likes of west yorks, south yorks, manchester.

excluding leeds . clearly a lot of confusion re tonights charts. the models are yet again proving to be inconsistent,

with the boxing day blues. hopefully by tomorrow, the track of the midweek low should be starting to fall into place,

although you can never be sure of the track of these lows.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm not disagreeing with you on last week, the point i'm making is that somehow it verifies better than the gfs and gem over the last month, it could well be wrong this time but the fact it churned out that output is cause for concern. Just so people know where i stand here i think it's wrong and also think the gfs operational run is wrong and neither will be backed by the ecm.

But as I mentioned earlier, the link you posted showed the UKMO verifying than the GFS over the Southern Hemisphere but not the Northern Hemisphere (did you get the two confused?). UKMO over the last few days was a poor 4th over the Northern Hemisphere with GFS and ECM both doing a lot better.

The UKMO has consistently overdone the northern extent of Atlantic lows over the past two weeks. I don't think it's worth cold/snow lovers getting worried over it unless the ECMWF falls into line with it. Regarding the long-term potential of its output, I think the main issue is that the PFJ straddles the British Isles keeping the colder air up north, so there would be more chance of the cold air never reaching the south under that scenario despite the large Greenland High, if lows kept tracking across the British Isles. But I think the UKMO probably has the lows too far north just like it often has done recently.

[Harsh Climate]

I agree, i remember ukmo showing a barlett at 144hrs a week or 2 ago and we all were worried, no barlett at all.

Also the ukmo works better for midlands northwards, so it is not too disappointing to me.

yes i agree, the gfs and ukmo are better for southern end of northern england, likes of west yorks, south yorks, manchester.

And for that reason i like the ukmo

[phil nw.]

GEM has the Low coming from the SW and across S.counties,further North than GFS but further South than UKMO.

http://www.meteociel...&ech=144&mode=0

Quite a vigorous feature too which becomes slow moving,similar in that respect to GFS.

A lot of pcpn with some heavy Snow for N.Wales and parts N.England on this run, i would think.

Edited December 26, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Neither have I Chris, if we were looking at the jet to the West getting thru the block as we have been so many times in the past then I would be worried. But it isn't - all the energy is in the STJ.

I'll stake my life on the ECM not supporting the UKMO and the fax charts not supporting it either. Very solid GFS ensembles until you get to the lower resolution timeframe.

Glad you agree .. After all anyway , it is only December .. Still early Winter. Mid winter doesn't start until January and with the Uk's Winter usually extending into april along way to go yet and a very positive start to winter. If you go back to the Met Office early assesment of winter it stated that the first half of winter was likely to be mild with above average temps ,a nd the second half was suppose to trend cooler with a snowy Feb.

[snowlover2009]

excluding leeds . clearly a lot of confusion re tonights charts. the models are yet again proving to be inconsistent,

with the boxing day blues. hopefully by tomorrow, the track of the midweek low should be starting to fall into place,

although you can never be sure of the track of these lows.

lol i had to say it though because the ukmo has warnign outs for this area on tuesday/wednesday and ukmo shows the snow potetntial more north. i agree about the low, lets hope the low is in a good spot for us all. but all in all, the cold should follow midweek onwards, still continuing in the north whatever happens.

[Mark Bayley]

I think there is going to be some very confused newbies on this thread!

Anyhow the GFS ensembles show the uncertainty. The control run is fantastic and not without support, nor is operational. So anything could happen, better go and eat my tea!

[NorthantsSnow]

I think your all over looking the fact that from +96 to it's +144 chart the UKMO is showing a massive Greenland high , and I have never known a Greenland high of that shape to give mild weather across the UK. I am getting very excited by the charts shown , does any of the level headed people agree ?

Chris .

A non cold outcome is not impossible but I would have thought unlikely given the synoptics being shown. It would be just our luck if even with these synoptics a prolonged cold spell did not occur.

Worth noting that Jo Wheeler on Sky just ramped up the cold potential, which has definitely raised my spirits:

"Well it does seem as though the recent cold weather has been a bit of a dry run for us. And although there's some respite today and milder temperatures, we're going to see a return of the colder conditions. Not just in the near future, but possibly running through much of January."

[snowlover2009]

And for that reason i like the ukmo

I might be reading it wrong, but gfs looks similar to GEM with the low for tuesday?

[azores92]

GEM has the Low coming from the SW and across S.counties,further North than GFS but further South than UKMO.

http://www.meteociel...&ech=144&mode=0

Quite a vigorous feature too which becomes slow moving,similar in that respect to GFS.

A lot of pcpn with some heavy Snow for N.Wales and parts N.England on this run, i would think.

im just trying to work out would that be snow for the midlands?

[snowmadchrisuk]

im just trying to work out would that be snow for the midlands?

I think the models will be a a lot more stable in the morning with a lot more flights going out today . The Snow line on Tuesday is open to question.... Will it be the Midlands or Northern England. This has always been the case though and the Met Office state this in there early warning. I still think whatever it will get colder as the week goes on.

[snowlover2009]

im just trying to work out would that be snow for the midlands?

wow and yes i think midlands and southern north of england would be in the firing line too. exciting, but we still have to wait and see. if i am correct these are the types of systems that brought lots of snow and drifting to my area for example. My mum use to tell me how the snow used to be as high as her front rooms windows and huge drifts. lets hope this is correct.

I think the models will be a a lot more stable in the morning with a lot more flights going out today . The Snow line on Tuesday is open to question.... Will it be the Midlands or Northern England. This has always been the case though and the Met Office state this in there early warning. I still think whatever it will get colder as the week goes on.

the snow should make it to both regions if the ukmo and gem is correct and also gfs. so could be both regions. What a pasting if this came off

[Harsh Climate]

I might be reading it wrong, but gfs looks similar to GEM with the low for tuesday?

Hmmm I think the Gfs is more favourable than the gem for snow on tue/wed for our neck of the woods.

But the gem's longer outlook is far better than the gfs. Because the lows track is much more southerly..

Its guna be a case of do we want heavy snow on tue/wed or a better outlook?? I want both lol! even if it does come at a cost to the southerners

[snowlover2009]

Hmmm I think the Gfs is more favourable than the gem for snow on tue/wed for our neck of the woods.

But the gem's longer outlook is far better than the gfs. Because the lows track is much more southerly..

Its guna be a case of do we want heavy snow on tue/wed or a better outlook?? I want both lol! even if it does come at a cost to the southerners

gemd oesn't go out after 120hrs in the evening. the gem has updated and looks great for us as well as gfs and ukmo,. But either one would bring snow further north than the boundary just being around north midlands. a bit more optimistic now.

[phil nw.]

I think your all over looking the fact that from +96 to it's +144 chart the UKMO is showing a massive Greenland high , and I have never known a Greenland high of that shape to give mild weather across the UK. I am getting very excited by the charts shown , does any of the level headed people agree ?

Chris .

Hi Chris,

Yes it`s a cold pattern overall but unfortunately some people further south will miss out intially.

It`s inevitable though with a batleground setup that within a comparitively short distance one location gets rain and just a few miles north,snow falls.

Because of my location(and yours) this will sound biased but it does look as if some areas of the Midlands and Wales look favourites at the moment for the snow,of course that can still change.

Fax just out for Mon

http://www.meteociel...h=48&carte=2000

Which is very similar to this mornings T60hrs,which is good imo.

As t84hrs showed this,

http://www.meteociel...h=84&carte=2000

Still time for details to change though.

Edit here T72hrs. fax.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

Much better than raw output.

Edited December 26, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[If Wishes made Weather]

So let me get this right –

1 – the low pressure system being supposed just to the south of Norway blocks cold air tracking from Eurasia to the UK

2 – the nearer continent is so warm that a south-easterly flow would most likely produce rain even on the northerly side of the low that will traverse west to east on any particular line that hits land off the Atlantic anywhere between Glasgow or Bordeaux around New Years Eve.

3 – the Greenland high in its enthusiasm has developed an unfortunate tendency to be the wrong shape and in any event appears not to be linking further towards Siberia.

4 – models are in any event not so accurate owing to data issues over the holiday period.

5 – the ‘polar front’ is straddling the UK rather than being south of the UK.

Nevertheless – the overall set up seen so far this winter is one that is conducive, at some point to lasting colder conditions over all of the UK (which in any event more northern regions and Scotland are currently experiencing).

So, if not now then when? How about February (half term time) – that always used to be the heaviest month for snow in the 80’s when I was in school. Constantly school closed, buses garaged for days on end, no milk and farmers having to pour it away etc.

[bennytes]

Not sure how relevant this is to us and the upcoming cold spell, but apparantley St Petersburg in Russia has had it's heaviest December snowfall this past few days since 1881...

''Heavy snowstorms have caused the delay of 14 flights and affected train traffic in St. Petersburg. The Russian second city's international airport Pulkovo listed 14 flights, including from Moscow, Paris, Salzburg, Helsinki, Hurghada and Barcelona, as delayed as of 6:10 p.m. Moscow time on Saturday, but said airlines from Pulkovo have not been affected. Commuter and other trains have been insignificantly delayed, the city's railroad officials said. St. Petersburg has the worst snow it has seen in December since 1881, meteorologists said. As of Tuesday, the city is under 35 cm of snow that has been falling since Thursday night hampering car traffic and leading to an increase in accidents. Authorities called on city residents on Saturday for helping remove snow from streets as machines have not been coping with the task. "I am appealing to everyone, to your conscience, come to fight the elements," St. Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko said speaking live on Radio Russia. Authorities said troops and emergencies workers will be engaged in cleaning the streets on Sunday.''

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/woalert_read.php?glide=SS-20091226-24322-RUS&cat=dis〈=eng

[Barb]

Well the GEM is quite stunning for Wales and Midlands, just like the GFS. The cold is further South than GFS in fact, look at these 850's.

GEM isn't backing UKMO for sure.

[Stu_London]

As you've shown numerous times before you go through more mood swings with the models then Jesus had disciples.

think you must have mistaken me with someone else - i dont even comment on the models that much

In a nutshell the outlook is fantastic. what the models are showing is for a progressively colder week (or remaining cold if you're in Scotland) and getting even colder as January starts up.

The outlook is OK but it is not as good as it was 24 hours ago for cold lovers.

Edited December 26, 2009 by Stu_London

[snowlover2009]

Well the GEM is quite stunning for Wales and Midlands, just like the GFS. The cold is further South than GFS in fact, look at these 850's.

GEM isn't backing UKMO for sure.

thw low pushes north a little later too, which is good then brings in a good easterly.

[Optimus Prime]

The outlook is OK but it is not as good as it was 24 hours ago for cold lovers.

'Ok' compared to the last 15 years?

[Tom D]

think you must have mistaken me with someone else - i dont even comment on the models that much

The outlook is OK but it is not as good as it was 24 hours ago for cold lovers.

Who's to say in another 24 hours it won't have prolonged the cold spell? It's far too early to write it off completely.

It's obviously a much better chart than any we've seen for a good few years.