Model Chat And Moods

[Ben_Cambs]

In my personal view, I'm becoming more and more tired of this cold spell as time passes, it was alright for the first 2 weeks but for me it's novelty has worn off around Christmas. I personally want to see some variations in the weather even if that includes blowtorch Atlantic.

I'm glad everyone else is enjoying it though, long term cold just isn't for me, and these model runs compound my misery.

I can see what you mean. People were getting used to getting one or two decent snow events every winter (especially in the south) now arguably snow is now starting to become more common in our winters now, and colder conditions aswell have now started to become more common

[Alex95]

Gobsmacking charts all around today. Great runs with no end in sight for the cold at all. Im not 100% sure on this but towards the end of next week there could be heavy and frequent snow showers for Northern and Eastern Britain?

Frequent snow showers in the NE tomorrow, spreading to most Eastern areas by Friday, then after that the general consensus is winds between N and ESE for all of next week, with more snow in the North and East, and the South could get some snow if low pressure tries to attack from the SW.

I must say, these are some of the best charts I've ever seen in the reliable timeframe, with the snow starting in 12 hours here with warnings from the METO.

[Ben_Cambs]

Frequent snow showers in the NE tomorrow, spreading to most Eastern areas by Friday, then after that the general consensus is winds between N and ESE for all of next week, with more snow in the North and East, and the South could get some snow if low pressure tries to attack from the SW.

I must say, these are some of the best charts I've ever seen in the reliable timeframe, with the snow starting in 12 hours here with warnings from the METO.

I know, good luck to you with that, Im ready for Friday, but on other weather websites they think next week we will see heavy snow too. Good interesting times ahead for all

Edited December 30, 2009 by Snowman0697

[da_bish]

I cannot see why people are getting so excited about a 'forecast' which is at the minimum 6 days away and we all know it will change to the usual over-cooked and all will be disappointed.

Especially when they cannot get it right 12 hours before the event.

I must be honest, RAF Brize Norton's Metoffice has got the forecast correct for the last 9 days.

Like a lot of people, I have given up seeing snow. Has been forecast here (except Brize's forecast) on more than occasion only for it to do everything expect Snow.

I will be pleased to delete this post if it snows on the 05 Jan 10.

And why would the Met Office put out a Be Aware warning for - Snow showers are expected to affect many areas but especially coasts and hills exposed to the north. The showers may be heavy and give fresh accumulations of 2-5cm in some places and locally 10cm.

Icy patches on untreated surfaces may become widespread.

AND NOT EVEN FORECAST SNOW.

I will accept the Icy patches on untreated surfaces.

Have to laugh otherwise it will grind you down.

[Alex95]

I cannot see why people are getting so excited about a 'forecast' which is at the minimum 6 days away and we all know it will change to the usual over-cooked and all will be disappointed.

Especially when they cannot get it right 12 hours before the event.

I must be honest, RAF Brize Norton's Metoffice has got the forecast correct for the last 9 days.

Like a lot of people, I have given up seeing snow. Has been forecast here (except Brize's forecast) on more than occasion only for it to do everything expect Snow.

I will be pleased to delete this post if it snows on the 05 Jan 10.

And why would the Met Office put out a Be Aware warning for - Snow showers are expected to affect many areas but especially coasts and hills exposed to the north. The showers may be heavy and give fresh accumulations of 2-5cm in some places and locally 10cm.

Icy patches on untreated surfaces may become widespread.

AND NOT EVEN FORECAST SNOW.

I will accept the Icy patches on untreated surfaces.

Have to laugh otherwise it will grind you down.

I'm getting excited because this is the holy grail for NE England, and it is starting as early as tomorrow up here. By Friday I expect significant snow.

[da_bish]

One of the problems living so far inland me thinks.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I prefer variety to homogeneity- but as I've been so used to homogeneous warmth recently, homogeneous cold makes a change.

I would perhaps be less enthusiastic about the upcoming spell of weather if I was in Stephen's location where for the most part cold, dry and sunny sums up the outlook. But for NE England, and also East Anglia, the potential for some good convection out of this is very high.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

In my personal view, I'm becoming more and more tired of this cold spell as time passes, it was alright for the first 2 weeks but for me it's novelty has worn off around Christmas. I personally want to see some variations in the weather even if that includes blowtorch Atlantic.

I'm glad everyone else is enjoying it though, long term cold just isn't for me, and these model runs compound my misery.

I must say, I've barely started! I had a canape starter of a thin covering on the 18th, which was completely gone by the 21st. Since then it has been milder with rain from time to time - especially the last couple of days.

Hopefully a very leisurely sumptious main course is just about to be served

[Ben_Cambs]

Im thinking of the NE/ENE next week from around Monday will help North Sea Convection? So we could see prologned, frequent heavy snow showers next week? And this may be one of the reasons the Met have gone for some prologned snowfall in Northern and Eastern areas?

ECM is a stunner, I wonder if GFS 18z will follow ECM 12z

Edited December 30, 2009 by Snowman0697

[Nick L]

Yet more good runs for the east...*sigh*

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yet more good runs for the east...*sigh*

what do you reckon our chances? gotta rely on troughs really, can see this being like the pre Xmas cold spell huge snow in SE, maybe weekend may give a few flurries

[Nick L]

what do you reckon our chances? gotta rely on troughs really, can see this being like the pre Xmas cold spell huge snow in SE, maybe weekend may give a few flurries

Haven't a clue, you have seen more and better winters than me so I am relying on you to tell me what to expect :lol:

I think it will be like the pre-Xmas let down though, we need to rely on any rogue troughs or the inevitable push from the Atlantic. The latter is obviously more risky but if it works we would get a pasting.

[we_want_snow]

Haven't a clue, you have seen more and better winters than me so I am relying on you to tell me what to expect

I think it will be like the pre-Xmas let down though, we need to rely on any rogue troughs or the inevitable push from the Atlantic. The latter is obviously more risky but if it works we would get a pasting.

Hopefully these charts will come off. You need cold for snow.

What do you class as pasting as I was told I was getting a pasting this time

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hopefully these charts will come off. You need cold for snow.

What do you class as pasting as I was told I was getting a pasting this time

all the models seem in agreement, even in FI, I'm always satisfied with a covering, my last real snow 19th nov 96, check charts on wetterzentrale.de, and uppers weren't that low, just dunno why it doesent happen as often nowadays

feb 09 my last decent snow

[Optimus Prime]

I just looked at the ESRL model for yesterdays temperature anomaly and was shocked how warm many parts of the N.Hemisphere are...

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif

Then I realised they have the October 28th output up. Then it reminded me, they did this many times in the 2005/2006 winter when it was cold.

Strange huh?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Very odd, but true- I checked just over an hour ago and it was showing the anomaly map for yesterday, which had widespread cold anomalies across Eurasia and the area of the Arctic just to the north of Britain, but also widespread warm anomalies over America and Canada and Alaska, particularly in the northeast of that landmass.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Very odd, but true- I checked just over an hour ago and it was showing the anomaly map for yesterday, which had widespread cold anomalies across Eurasia and the area of the Arctic just to the north of Britain, but also widespread warm anomalies over America and Canada and Alaska, particularly in the northeast of that landmass.

Isn't that pretty much the opposite of the current anomaly?

[SteveB]

In my personal view, I'm becoming more and more tired of this cold spell as time passes, it was alright for the first 2 weeks but for me it's novelty has worn off around Christmas. I personally want to see some variations in the weather even if that includes blowtorch Atlantic.

I'm glad everyone else is enjoying it though, long term cold just isn't for me, and these model runs compound my misery.

It has hardly even started down here. Had a light covering of snow on the 21st, one overnight low of -3.6c, one day with a high of under 1c & the rest of the time it's been raining with maximum high of 6c in the day & min low of -1c at night. Hardly what you call a cold spell.

[stewfox]

Can I ask a open Model question as its not allowed in the model thread.

Why is so little attention paid to things going on pre T84

Most post model posters just post charts at T144 to T240 but we know 90% is FI ?

[Optimus Prime]

Most post model posters just post charts at T144 to T240 but we know 90% is FI ?

That's the exact same question I keep asking myself. It's just people abusing the right to have models past 120 hours.

[phil nw.]

That's the exact same question I keep asking myself. It's just people abusing the right to have models past 120 hours.

Have a look at my recent postings in the MO thread guys.

[stewfox]

That's the exact same question I keep asking myself. It's just people abusing the right to have models past 120 hours.

It was just a open question, not a criticism

At least not like the BBC who have a forecast today that goes out all the way to 4pm tomorrow , a joke

[Thundery wintry showers]

Isn't that pretty much the opposite of the current anomaly?

No, it should be much the same today- this kind of northern blocking with a strongly negative NAO and AO and warm air advection to the west of Greenland nearly always means widespread cold over Eurasia and warmth over the eastern USA and Canada.

[Optimus Prime]

It was just a open question, not a criticism

I've always found people learn more by criticising them but hey ho I guess they're going that far out in hope for something even colder? Or to get an idea of when it'll breakdown.

[Nick L]

I have to laugh at all those in the model thread from the SE saying "this is great for the whole of the UK" - do they realise there is more to the UK than the SE corner?

Another 2 week cold and dry spell on the cards for the vast majority of us, the updated Met Office winter forecasts suggests and drier than average winter, I think I would agree with that.

And I agree about people concentrating on FI rather than the near time. They have been moaning for ages saying we never get superb charts filtering their way down into the reliable timeframe, yet when they do they just ignore them!