Model Chat And Moods

[Thundery wintry showers]

The irony is, they're all focusing on the South East but over the next few days the snowiest regions are likely to be the northeast of both Scotland and England. I will be leaving this area for Norwich on the 5th January which might mean missing out on the deepest snow cover at Cleadon, but conveniently, the main focus of shower activity may well sink south to East Anglia shortly afterwards as the high to the NW sinks slowly SE towards the British Isles.

During my Lancaster days I was something of a snow shield with snow events reliably avoiding my area (it would snow in Lancaster while I was in Tyneside and vice versa) but since I left there I seem to have mutated into a snow magnet! May as well make the most of it while it lasts.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I wish we could stop this SE'erner bashing

Some of us actually try to venture to other regional threads and spread a bit of goodwill. I've visited a few other threads and posted in there with good wishes both pre xmas and afterwards.

Perhaps some of you, who are criticising this part of the country and/or either moaning at your percieved lack of snow or alternatively gloating becasue you are going to get significant amounts could do the same rather than making unfriendly and north/south north west/south east divide comments.

End of rant...

Happy New Year btw

[Mark Bayley]

Overall it does look cold and dry. I wouldn't rule out snow though. I would expect many eastern and northern areas to see a least some snow in the form of showers. Although they don't look widspread im sure a few will make it inland. Its starting to likely that high pressure will be close by around the 9th. So certainly cold and dry around then. Its what the high does then. Does it just sit there or go back North which GP suggests. If it does then a renewed risk of snow and cold. Not that it would have turned milder!

[Tom D]

I have to laugh at all those in the model thread from the SE saying "this is great for the whole of the UK" - do they realise there is more to the UK than the SE corner?

It goes without saying that the largest population in the country is in the south east and East Anglia, and so there are more people from that region on the forums, exemplified by the fact the SE&EA topic went into it's 20th restart whereas the Scottish thread had a lot fewer posts.

I don't mean to sound blunt but it's hard for some to care about other regions - this is obvious when there's snow falling/forecast in the south as a lot more people post on the forums and now the south is essentially snow free at the moment the numbers have fallen. I know there are members who post in the model discussion thread and they can account for the UK as a whole because they know what they're talking about - the vast majority of forum members are just novices and this is an hobby rather than a serious interest.

I have visited other regional threads; it's been nice to hear that Scotland is having one of its most decent winters for some time with snow very deep in many areas now. I'm sure, however, I'm not alone in not really knowing Scotland that well, so people saying it's snowing in 'this place' I don't always know where they are. This goes with other regions too, although I know England quite well I only know of a few major places in Scotland. There's also the degree of jealousy amongst forum members who see snow in Scotland as just being normal for the time of year and longing for some more snow in the south of England.

With snow events you have to be somewhat selfish because of how localised falls can be in this country.

Without going on too much more, enjoy the snow if you have it. It might be nice if either the site or an advanced knowledgeable member could produce a map of where there's snow on the ground right now and where it is likely to fall in the next 24 hours for example. I'm sure I'm not alone in not knowing where there is snow on the ground apart from the obvious places I can see on the radar.

[stewfox]

I do find it a little sad that the latest model discussion thread is fast turning into a cold rampers thread

One post suggest nothing 'great' as yet about the current winter and he was jump upon

Its nice posting T144 T240 charts and to see some of the more experience posters talk about mid January snow potential etc but it is still all FI

We have had 2 days of snow here and some cold dull days with a few frosts

I hope a 80s style winter does come off but its a pity people are not entitled to their opinions/observations

Clearly in places like Scotland where another -16c is forcast tonight its a different story

Edited December 31, 2009 by stewfox

[tinybill]

I wish we could stop this SE'erner bashing

Some of us actually try to venture to other regional threads and spread a bit of goodwill. I've visited a few other threads and posted in there with good wishes both pre xmas and afterwards.

Perhaps some of you, who are criticising this part of the country and/or either moaning at your percieved lack of snow or alternatively gloating becasue you are going to get significant amounts could do the same rather than making unfriendly and north/south north west/south east divide comments.

End of rant...

Happy New Year btw

[/quotewel said its not our fault we live here beside the north sea and when it snow here its normally a lot !!!

happy new year all!!!!!!!!

[SteveB]

Yep I find it a little annoying when people say that this could be the best cold spell for years. Yes it's going to be cold, but I do believe most people would like snow as well. It looks like the east and south east will see snow while the rest of the Country will be cold and dry for at least the next 5 days.

It's frustrating situation watching days go by and no snow to show for it, and we all know this cold spell is not going to last all Winter, especially when you read GP's comments regarding Feb. So with each day passing another snow chance lost.

[Nick L]

I do find it a little sad that the latest model discussion thread is fast turning into a cold rampers thread

One post suggest nothing 'great' as yet about the current winter and he was jump upon

Its nice posting T144 T240 charts and to see some of the more experience posters talk about mid January snow potential etc but it is still all FI

We have had 2 days of snow here and some cold dull days with a few frosts

I hope a 80s style winter does come off but its a pity people are not entitled to their opinions/observations

Clearly in places like Scotland where another -16c is forcast tonight its a different story

Absolutely spot on. Some of the comments in the model thread are very unfair.

Whenever somebody injects some realism and says that it isn't that great a cold spell (which it really isn't) they get accused of "throwing their toys out of the pram". Sure, this will be a great cold spell for the lucky few, but for the vast majority it will be average at best.

[mountain shadow]

I would class this spell as very very poor for snow over here. I have had only 2cm. By this time last year I had already 4 good dumpings of snow.

Northerly topplers provide more action for snow here than nor' easterlies or easterlies.

Obviously if I was back in Dundee I would be a happy bunny.

The fact is this cold spell has not delivered for a large geographical part of the UK and Ireland

[Nick L]

I would class this spell as very very poor for snow over here. I have had only 2cm. By this time last year I had already 4 good dumpings of snow.

Northerly topplers provide more action for snow here than nor' easterlies or easterlies.

Obviously if I was back in Dundee I would be a happy bunny.

The fact is this cold spell has not delivered for a large geographical part of the UK and Ireland

HOW DARE YOU CRITICISE THE COLD SPELL....

Fully agree with your last sentence, as I am sure many others will.

[SteveB]

I would class this spell as very very poor for snow over here. I have had only 2cm. By this time last year I had already 4 good dumpings of snow.

Northerly topplers provide more action for snow here than nor' easterlies or easterlies.

Obviously if I was back in Dundee I would be a happy bunny.

The fact is this cold spell has not delivered for a large geographical part of the UK and Ireland

Yep nowt to get excited about "yet", I love to have the excitment of lamp post watching, waking up in the morning and found that it had snowed, being at work and watching it snowing, then getting sent home early.

Nothing exciting about scaping ice of your car every morning, or having the threat of pipes freezing up.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yep I find it a little annoying when people say that this could be the best cold spell for years. Yes it's going to be cold, but I do believe most people would like snow as well. It looks like the east and south east will see snow while the rest of the Country will be cold and dry for at least the next 5 days.

It's frustrating situation watching days go by and no snow to show for it, and we all know this cold spell is not going to last all Winter, especially when you read GP's comments regarding Feb. So with each day passing another snow chance lost.

Hi Steve

I can understand your frustration - and there is nothing wrong with people being frustrated at the lack of their own snow in relation to others. It is quite understandable. That is where the regional threads come in - so that either lack of or alternatively chances of, snow (depending on your locality) can be, or should be able to be, discussed freely.

The trouble is that IMBYISM I think gets too much into the model threads where although some people post GFS ppn posts (which kind of makes it model related) the main underlying purpose is to discuss chances of snow for their own area in truth. That sort of thing (as well as the sort of inter regional prejudices that I mentioned earlier) and moaning about lack of snow are a problem as well as being, well, just plain immature. I love nick sussex reference as such in the model thread just now!

However, in terms of your own lack of snow - as hard as it is, don't give up yet. This does look to be quite a long cold spell and snow WILL crop up over the coming days where it is not currently shown or expected. FWIW, I have seen very little snow so far this winter, and my own hopes lie in the models hints next week. But even that might be too far north of my own region

Edited December 31, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Bolton67]

Hi Steve

I can understand your frustration - and there is nothing wrong with people being frustrated at the lack of their own snow in relation to others. It is quite understandable. That is where the regional threads come in - so that either lack of or alternatively chances of, snow (depending on your locality) can be, or should be able to be, discussed freely.

The trouble is that IMBYISM I think gets too much into the model threads where although some people post GFS ppn posts (which kind of makes it model related) the main underlying purpose is to discuss chances of snow for their own area in truth. That sort of thing (as well as the sort of inter regional prejudices that I mentioned earlier) and moaning about lack of snow are a problem as well as being, well, just plain immature. I love nick sussex reference as such in the model thread just now!

However, in terms of your own lack of snow - as hard as it is, don't give up yet. This does look to be quite a long cold spell and snow WILL crop up over the coming days where it is not expected. FWIW, I have seen very little snow so far this winter, and my own hopes lie in the models hints next week. But even that might be too far north of my own region

Hi NSSC

some people are on a real downer saying no snow for my are for the next 5 days.

well we've just had a very light snow shower here in Northampton none was forecast for today.

People will be in for some surprises.

[Nick L]

Hi NSSC

some people are on a real downer saying no snow for my are for the next 5 days.

well we've just had a very light snow shower here in Northampton none was forecast for today.

People will be in for some surprises.

Don't know if that was a reference to me, as I mentioned no snow for 5 days in my area in the Midlands thread. I was specifically on about the west Midlands once again, and even specifically said "my area" in the post.

And besides, if all we are going to get from this marvellous cold spell is light snow showers, I really do not see the fuss.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi NSSC

some people are on a real downer saying no snow for my are for the next 5 days.

well we've just had a very light snow shower here in Northampton none was forecast for today.

People will be in for some surprises.

Yes indeed there are likely to be surprises - it is about trying to find a balance between over expectations and over ramping and being over pessimistic and on too much of a 'downer'. At the end of the day, the weather does, what the weather does and there is nothing we can do about it anyway!!

Edited December 31, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[SteveB]

Hi Steve

I can understand your frustration - and there is nothing wrong with people being frustrated at the lack of their own snow in relation to others. It is quite understandable. That is where the regional threads come in - so that either lack of or alternatively chances of, snow (depending on your locality) can be, or should be able to be, discussed freely.

The trouble is that IMBYISM I think gets too much into the model threads where although some people post GFS ppn posts (which kind of makes it model related) the main underlying purpose is to discuss chances of snow for their own area in truth. That sort of thing (as well as the sort of inter regional prejudices that I mentioned earlier) and moaning about lack of snow are a problem as well as being, well, just plain immature. I love nick sussex reference as such in the model thread just now!

However, in terms of your own lack of snow - as hard as it is, don't give up yet. This does look to be quite a long cold spell and snow WILL crop up over the coming days where it is not currently shown or expected. FWIW, I have seen very little snow so far this winter, and my own hopes lie in the models hints next week. But even that might be too far north of my own region

It's just plain old annoying not getting any snow. Good luck hope you get some.

[nobble]

in my own very humble opinion, the winters since 2005/2006 have been getting cooler with more snow events, with october and november snowfalls, 2007 and 2008, spells of 15-20 days with frosts and ice, im an electrician and wrk on large sites, for the last 15 years, so im basing my opinion on what im experiencing , i was working at donnington park jan - april 2006, and there were at least 6 occasions of heavy snow, jan and feb were cold all month! previous to that dec 2005 was very cold dry and icy, november december 2006 was freezing december 2 weeks of freezing fog, 3 inches of snow in november 2007, then very cold and dry october snow in 2008 followed by almost a frost every day in nov and december, cold freezing 1st 2 weeks of jan 2009 then the snow fun in february, now a very cold dec 2009, does anyone else have opinions on this, is a pattern to colder longer winters returning???

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some people have been rather too harsh regarding alleged "south east bias" but I do think the focus on the South East can make the model output discussion less fruitful for those living in other regions (it can be argued, of course, that the regional threads are partly there to help address that problem).

It isn't the fault of the people living in the South East- IMBYism occurs in comparable measure across all regions of the country- it's more an unfortunate consequence of the fact that a disproportionate number of the most regular contributors to the Model Output Discussion threads come from that region. The media is the worst offender- it regularly focuses disproportionately on south-east England at the expense of the rest of the country, particularly northern England, Ireland and Scotland.

I also get a sense of some people in central and north-western regions perhaps feeling aggrieved that most of the snowfalls are likely to affect eastern areas. But latest runs have been progressively toning up the chances of many western areas seeing wintry precipitation at the weekend. In contrast to last winter, however, south-west England looks like largely missing out in the near term.

[meerkat63]

I wish we could stop this SE'erner bashing

Some of us actually try to venture to other regional threads and spread a bit of goodwill. I've visited a few other threads and posted in there with good wishes both pre xmas and afterwards.

Hi Tamara

To be honest I have been totally fed up with what has been going on in that regard, to the extent that I have barely posted in the thread for my region today - such has been the nature of the conversation at times.

As you point out in your post below, the model thread is there for discussion of the model output - not for discussion of ones own prospects for snow. Some fail to appreciate this and hence moan, complain, accuse people of bias and self-interest - most of this being completely unfounded in my honest opinion.

I almost hesitate to say this but how many of those who may be regarded as the worst culprits actually have the technical expertise to converse or articulate themselves in a meaningful way with the more knowledgeable members who post on that thread, many of whom just happen to live in the south east. That does sound like elitism or arrogance - it isn't meant to. If I were capable of having a discussion at their level with Steve Murr or Nick Sussex for instance on matters meteorological I would, however I do not yet profess to have a scientific working knowledge of the subject, and I know that.

Hence I stay out of the model thread by and large for that very reason. Discussions of will it snow IMBY are for the regional thread as said.

I for one hope that this entire issue begins to dissipate sooner rather than later and may I wish everyone wherever they may live - especially fellow members in the south east corner on this occassion! - a very happy new year.

Happy New Year to all.

[Optimus Prime]

Exactly - most of the competent forecasters live in the South East. I actually get quite excited when I hear about how Scotland has been this cold as it reminds me of 1995 when us lot missed out while Scotland was perishingly cold. I find myself visiting the Scottish thread more than the SE ones.

Not always the case though as there are some predominately 'Island livers' in the SE that claim if it's not cold here then it can't possibly be cold elsewhere.

[Anti-Mild]

Hi all, it's been a while since I posted in here - very busy with work and all that = but I was thinking about the current cold spell of weather and aside from the obvious pleasing factor, it makes me a little sad.

I hear you ask "why, A-M?", and I will answer.

Given that the cold has lasted since the 16th of December in these parts, with snow on the ground since the 17th, and the highest temp I have recorded since the start has been 4.2c, and the projections of the continuation taking us well into the New Year with snow and possible record breaking temps; I am sad because I am of the opinion that it will be many years before this is bettered.

Some of the charts we have experienced, and may yet experience, are charts we haven't seen in over 20 years. We have been very lucky in terms of many if the factors required to give us a cold shot and the chances of it happening again are slim.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not being all negative and moaning about the weather, it's just that like many others on here, I have been watching the models online for the last 6 years, hoping that the ideal winter synoptics would happen one of these years. And now it has happened. I guess it's like the lottery. Let's say you have the same numbers week after week, then one week you get 5 and the bonus and win £100,000. Do you still keep playing, hoping for the jackpot, or do you consider yourself extremely fortunate and stop playing?

I will keep watching the models, I mean we still have the majority of this winter remaining, but even if the rest of the winter is mild and the next 20 winters are nothing special, at least I can look back on December 09/January 10 and say "I remember that cold spell - best in XX years!"

Here endeth the introspection!!

Happy New Year everyone.

[Solar Cycles]

I think most of us away from the SE and East, became a little despondent as to what was being shown, as a cold dry spell. However it now looks as if far more areas, will see some of the white stuff down the line. I suppose you can understand peoples frustrations, having endured many years of snowless winters. Anyhow things are certainly moving in the right direction for all, so I hope everyone of you has a Happy New Year, and remember it's only weather!

[rbw]

I read a lot here about 80s style winters - whereas I recall nothing exceptional about the 80s winters apart from 81/2 which in my mind was a left over from the 70s. Now to me the late 70s were something special or was that just the excitement of youth. I seem to regularly recall snow fall of 4 to 6 inches whilst I was at secondary school and I frequently recorded low temperatures (sadly my records don't exist from those days).

Since then we had a big snowfall at the end of April 1981 followed by an enormous one in Jan 82 with temps of

-18C. We then didn't have anything more than 2 inches right up to last February. With regards temperatures there have been quite a few cases of -9C

Was there a difference between the 70s and 80s in weather patterns or is it me?

R

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes, the ECM 12z today wasnt the best run, but one thing to remember is that it is out in FI (Fantasy Island) and there will be little or no support for this run by GFS and UKMO, as the breakdown is very sudden. GFS 18z will go towards a breakdown in the mid term or continuing cold in the long term

[Ben_Cambs]

Generally disagreements tonight over the models for a breakdown at around T+192, ECM and GEM go for the breakdown, NOGAP continues with the cold and I suspect JMA will have no hint for a breakdown too. GFS 18z will be interesting for sure tonight