Model Chat And Moods

[John Snow]

If 6z verifies we are going to need our own snowploughs let alone shovels to dig us out of our drives and streets, levels of snow similar to what has been on the news in China

Truly staggering run but will cost me a lot of money

[PB22]

I really wish the huge block to our east would go away now to be honest. It's becoming increasingly obvious to most of us who know a thing or two that its merely wasting valuable winter time, leaving us in no-man's land for so long without actually providing us with anything decent in terms of winter weather. Another week or two down the line and we are then entering February, sunlight is increasing and as every day passes we will increasingly stuggle to see anything decent in terms of lying snow. For me, daytime highs of only a couple of degrees above freezing with dull southeasterlies doesn't cut it, and I'd rather we had the milder Atlantic influence. Still, if the ECM 12z were to come off, I'd get my wish there!

[SP1986]

I suppose with the SW initiating with the jet there and some instability, any showers that come up could be thundery, certainly not anything to be argued with. Winter TM thundery showers would be awesome!

[grab my graupel]

Yep, got to agree with you guys, unless the orientation is spot on, Easterlies don't

particularly do anything for me either. I'd much sooner see fresher/ mobile conditions.

And if what Steve suggests were to happen, what a bonus that would be. :excl:

[Snowyowl9]

If ECM came off which it won`t as it`s too extreme mild as it would just bring cloudy drizzly rubbish.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Now GFS would be a much more profitable run to get a low CET for starters,cold with some snow showers sharp frosts I`d know which run I`d prefer and it`s not the atlantic especially not what ECM shows worst cased scenario.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Has someone upset Steve Murr on Netweather as he is not posting on here. He is posting elsewhere at the moment with great model info. Please come back Steve

Whats he saying what`s going to happen.

[keithlucky]

Just listen to rob mcelwee latest forecaste hes seemed convinced that cold weather is coming back next week. Rrob

[PB22]

Just listen to rob mcelwee latest forecaste hes seemed convinced that cold weather is coming back next week. Rrob

Is that the same Rob that forecast a snowy Sunday on the Saturday night before just over a week ago which never materialised?

Edited January 20, 2010 by Paul B

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z seems to be going like the 06Z and 12Z, surely ecm 00Z will change around and bring the Easterly

[LomondSnowstorm]

Why is Steve on TWO at the moment? He's easily one of the best on the model output discussion - come to think of it, JH hasn't been around too much either.

[PB22]

Why is Steve on TWO at the moment? He's easily one of the best on the model output discussion - come to think of it, JH hasn't been around too much either.

JH is away on holiday at the moment I believe.

[MAF]

Is that the same Rob that forecast a snowy Sunday on the Saturday night before just over a week ago which never materialised?

i swear he reads the posts on Netweather though. he even uses terms that crop up in the model thread quite often. his parting sentence after last nights forecast on N24 was "do we have a battle zone building?" with that wry smile he gives. perhaps hinting that the East-West mild/cold line may produce some more wintry weather. not sure what his accuracy rate is, but i still think he is the best of the bunch on TV

[Polar Continental]

Well, I wish the models would make up their mind on this one, first you see an easterly then you don’t then you do again, now it gone again lol.

My head is spinning after all this chopping and changing with the models.

After waiting until the last minute to update my website this morning on the 0z outputs, I felt confident with my forecast for next week, then out pops the 06 GFS, I thought it must be April 1st.

I really do think the model runs this evening will get this sorted one way or another, at this rate FI will be T24.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I really wish the huge block to our east would go away now to be honest. It's becoming increasingly obvious to most of us who know a thing or two that its merely wasting valuable winter time, leaving us in no-man's land for so long without actually providing us with anything decent in terms of winter weather. Another week or two down the line and we are then entering February, sunlight is increasing and as every day passes we will increasingly stuggle to see anything decent in terms of lying snow. For me, daytime highs of only a couple of degrees above freezing with dull southeasterlies doesn't cut it, and I'd rather we had the milder Atlantic influence.

With the sole exception of scenarios where we get an unstable enough easterly to bring sunshine and snow showers, I have to say I agree with you on this.

I suppose with the SW initiating with the jet there and some instability, any showers that come up could be thundery, certainly not anything to be argued with. Winter TM thundery showers would be awesome!

Apologies, but I don't quite get what SW and TM stand for! Is this a reference to the shortwave moving SE across the country that could generate some showery activity over the sea?

Alternatively if you mean TM as in tropical maritime, we don't get thundery showers from that at this time of the year- those cyclonic south-westerly regimes with thundery showers are usually of the returning polar maritime variety. Also, I can't find what Steve Murr is suggesting- I saw a few posts of his when I looked over on TWO but they were from yesterday and hinted at the possibility of snowy easterly that now looks increasingly unlikely?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think Im going for northerly, northerlies tend to arrive at weekends, northerly 30th-31st Jan, watch for it showing more frequently on the models, ecm shows it, ukmo not far off, TEITS says use instinct, mine is for a northerly related cold spell to begin on the 30th Jan

Edited January 21, 2010 by mark forster 630

[keithlucky]

Is that the same Rob that forecast a snowy Sunday on the Saturday night before just over a week ago which never materialised?

I m afraid the met have said widespread wintry showers sunday down north sea , met likes snow on weekends.

Edited January 21, 2010 by keithlucky

[grab my graupel]

I m afraid the met have said widespread wintry showers sunday down north sea , met likes snow on weekends.

I hope so keith, I'm getting rather bored with the amount of cloud that we're experiencing. Wintry showers

and sunshine would be just what the doctor ordered

[Snowyowl9]

If it comes to the worst it`ll probably just be a very quiet week with light winds maybe a few wintry showers in the east to start with and then nightime frosts unless it`s a cloudy high,and did I mention dry.

Or we could get a much colder stronger easterly snow showers feeling bitter followed by a potent N-ly best case.

Today wind switched round from a cold SE yesterday to a mild N/NW now.

[Richard Lake]

Well my AccuWeather Widget has just updated in the last 45 mins, still shows snow for my location tomorrow and the wednesday of 11C (which is/was incredibly unlikely) has dropped to 6C.

So folks what is the chance of tomorrow's predicted snow materialising here?

[grab my graupel]

Excellent GFS 00z, which keeps us locked in a cold setup for most of the entire run

[Thundery wintry showers]

At last, signs that we're all going to see plenty of sunshine from Thursday onwards. I find the prospect of a northerly like the Feb 1999 one especially tantalising with me being in Norwich- there is a real chance of that "sunshine and snow showers" regime not only starting the month here, but also seeing it out. Watch out for the "wishbone effect" in inland areas though which may mean many places stay dry and sunny.

I don't particularly buy the easterly on the GFS 00Z but I certainly wouldn't be complaining if it came off- I know from experience from 17 December-16 January that while I tire of cloudy wintry weather after a while, it takes well over three weeks (!) for me to tire of sunshine and snow showers, which is what the kind of deep cold on the 00Z would mostly bring.

[sandstorm2]

At last, signs that we're all going to see plenty of sunshine from Thursday onwards. I find the prospect of a northerly like the Feb 1999 one especially tantalising with me being in Norwich- there is a real chance of that "sunshine and snow showers" regime not only starting the month here, but also seeing it out. Watch out for the "wishbone effect" in inland areas though which may mean many places stay dry and sunny.

I don't particularly buy the easterly on the GFS 00Z but I certainly wouldn't be complaining if it came off- I know from experience from 17 December-16 January that while I tire of cloudy wintry weather after a while, it takes well over three weeks (!) for me to tire of sunshine and snow showers, which is what the kind of deep cold on the 00Z would mostly bring.

Aye me too, although I am in the west of Scotland it will still be a welcome relief to see clear blue skies and cold temps with low temps at night.

SS2

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I know means nothing, and inaccurate but the Stafford snow shield is showing on the 18Z uk snow depth charts from 93-105, did show before as well in early Jan

[weather eater]

Hats off too TEITS and Nick Sussex for predicting this!!

Actually TEITS did not see this one coming although he has made posts demonstrating how this situation could develop into an easterly, whether or not it does remains to be seen, congratulations will only be in order once its nailed.

Also I might add that only BFTP, GP and myself to a lesser extent picked up on the Atlantic block and northerly developing. GP I might add is rather lukewarm on the easterly developing. but we shall see.

[cold snap]

WOW i nearly fainted when i saw the gfs run.best ive ever seen.

Lets hope the trend continues.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Fantastic GFS run tonight, but best of all I ain't seen a mild ramper for ages!! Where are you guys?!?!?