Model Chat And Moods

[MR EXTREMES]

to be honest im more confused than anything.

the models have been kicking up this beast but then ukmo is having none of it ecm has backtracked but the gfs is absolutely stunning but that just there to confuse us futher i think lol.

so come guys be honest which will win cold or mild or neither?

[Mark Bayley]

to be honest im more confused than anything.

the models have been kicking up this beast but then ukmo is having none of it ecm has backtracked but the gfs is absolutely stunning but that just there to confuse us futher i think lol.

so come guys be honest which will win cold or mild or neither?

If it was between the ECM and GFS i know who i would back...

To be fair no one knows what will happen. A flow from the South East/East is possible, just like the GFS and some of the lesser models (JMA, GEM etc...) On the other hand the Atlantic might come through leading to mild south westerlies, and ultimately this

Not best of charts in the winter.

Which models right? We shall find out soon enough

A -AO and -NAO does not guarantee cold (which is impression i get from some members, not you though). The ECM being a good example.

[Damp and dreary]

to be honest im more confused than anything.

the models have been kicking up this beast but then ukmo is having none of it ecm has backtracked but the gfs is absolutely stunning but that just there to confuse us futher i think lol.

so come guys be honest which will win cold or mild or neither?

I certainly wouldnt want to guess which one. Like many, i know what i would prefer. The thing is most (but not all) of us would prefer snow in the winter, personaly that and icyness is the only reason i love winter, but some on here really get too caught up in this "i am right i mentioned it last week" stuff. Unfortunately ever since being a member here, many years now the majority of lovely looking model outlooks have backtracked days before they happen, no one can deny that. I want some exiting weather but there is always a part of me that says i wont happen, stung too many times i guess. If it does happen then i will be as happy as most of the others here.

[Tomomcd]

I like how the GFS recently seems to manage to swing whatever is showing at 180 into a easterly of sorts, when it enters the low res output

Edited January 30, 2010 by Tomomcd

[SnowBallz]

I'm genuinely disappointed that both the UKMO, and then subsequently the ECM didn't 'fall into line' with what the GFS was suggesting. I'm not surprised though. But then this is where I think it's healthy that people should maybe take a step-back, and assess how the models have fared - but more importantly, how much faith can you afford in a signal which is generated by that same debunked model, for the foreseeable. I'd love for the cold lovers to have their day out at the fair and a congratulatory orgasm - but how likely is it all? Perhaps it's understandable considering that GFS is the only real long-term model (that I know of anyway) so - to a degree - people are kinda devoid of choice, and if you don't have choice - then you don't have standards, or at least a comparative.

It's tempting to go onto the thread and 'haha!' a few people, but I didn't intend on the other model thread to mutate into what it eventually did, and I genuinely regret that. In any case, it'd only be hypocritical of me, as - even though the models are veering away from an Easterly - it's still only 'one run' from both UKMO and ECM (and now a subsequent GFS run) so it's not enough of a robust correction, to completely discount it. Well, I don't think so anyway - but what do I know.

Worryingly, I read how someone has spotted - wait for it - an Easterly deep in FI. I sigh as I type that, but hey - as long as they are having fun, then I can't - and I don't - wish to spoil any of it for them. I agree, it'd be a very boring forum if we didn't fantasise somewhat, some of the times.

More worryingly though, is that it's 11.30pm...on a Saturday...and I'm sober as a Judge :lol: See, this is what happens when Mr Flu comes and knocks on your door: I get cranky, and faaaaar more dangerous than any I.E.D. I wish I had some alcohol right now

Oh and (not that any of you are the slightest bit interested...) my team - the Mighty Spurs - conspired to throw away yet another two points in our quest to win the league finish in the Top 4 And to top it all off, Keano might be leaving Hmm. Mind you, at least the best looking guy on the forum said ello to me today, so that aint so bad - I can sleep with a smile on my face now :lol:

Jesus I'm boring

[TEITS]

I like how the GFS recently seems to manage to swing whatever is showing at 180 into a easterly of sorts, when it enters the low res output :lol:

I can't help but laugh at the above because some if it is so true.

I was reading a book the other day by Ralph Hardy which was written in 1996. He comments on the models in this book and states how they only go out to +144. Sometimes I wish this was true today because it would make following the models much easier.

Come next winter I may change my approach to the models although recent events haven't caused this. I may just focus upto +144 and spend more time looking at the detail rather than focussing on the trend out to +240.

[dallas]

I think part of it is also with the specific person. If you close yourself off to liking one type of weather and that type of weather is particularly rare or seldom happens then there will be disappointment. Granted I love snow but through the medium of gardening Ive also developed a liking for mild, and also because thats what I find comfortable healthwise, if you are able to adopt to this, ie expand yuor weather interests, you will welcome every type of weather, which is the essence of a true weather fan.

As for the models, the UKMO looks like its got data missing!

I agree good idea that, should never get dissapointed then. I wonder if the models are drawn by shrinks to increase their clientel!

[SP1986]

I wonder if the models are drawn by shrinks to increase their clientel!

Good one.

[dallas]

Not much to say this morning really other than turnaround more or less complete. For me the writing had been on the wall for several runs now with the way the UKMO output was trending. I know the UKMO T+144 gets a lot of stick, but you have to take your hat off to the model on its recent performance. GFS has finally latched on, and the ensembles sum it up really:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

If its any consolation, its not just us that has seen the outlook flip...the change is even more striking on the Berlin ensembles:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Berlin_ens.png

It will be interesting to see how much the ECM ensembles change as well after all this as they were also very bullish about cold, even though the operational was often a milder run.

In the meantime, hats off to our very own model, the UKMO.

Your expierance stood you in good stead, you have obviously watched alot of weather which helps when looking at the models

[Buxton Codge]

Appalling model output this morning for cold weather fans .

All eyes now on how "mild" this February will be.

[Jason T]

Morning all. I see most are on the verge of prozac, (WHY) we had all this yesterday and was stated that why keep looking out 5 + days ahead.

[Magadan]

Well the 0Zs have confirmed the worst fears, with some horrific charts around this morning for cold fans - although obviously good news if you like the Atlantic murk.

As S4lancia says, this pattern will be a mimimum of two weeks and that takes us into the second half of Feb. A snow cover here this morning and for anyone else who has snow, make the most of it !

Worst fears indeed. The turnaround in the models at this stage just makes such a mockery of all that went before, so that's me finished with model watching, at least until a new methodology comes along that's actually consistent. Maybe throwing chicken entrails against the wall or something.

[Spurry]

It seems that winter has had a sting in it's tail,we have had a 2cm covering of snow here ,itwould appear that thats our lot now if the models are to be believed

[Bobby]

It's amusing how the people who were saying that a potent Beast from East was a virtual certainty based on charts in FI are now saying "it's so uncertain, best to stick to charts within T+96!" .

[PB22]

It's amusing how the people who were saying that a potent Beast from East was a virtual certainty based on charts in FI are now saying "it's so uncertain, best to stick to charts within T+96!" .

Not just me that's noted this then! Cold bias? On here? Never!

[TEITS]

Not just me that's noted this then! Cold bias? On here? Never!

Certainly is a cold bias on here which isn't surprising as many including myself love extremes. However there are a minority of people who enjoy when the models downgrade as they seem to get some enjoyment out of members being disappointed. What sad individuals these are!

Edited January 31, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Eugene]

However there are a minority of people who enjoy when the models downgrade as they seem to get some enjoyment out of members being disappointed. What sad individuals these are!

LOL so true but funny at the same time, in regards a cold bias it's not like there isn't a hot bias in the summer is there so it all evens out in the end

It's amusing how the people who were saying that a potent Beast from East was a virtual certainty based on charts in FI are now saying "it's so uncertain, best to stick to charts within T+96!" .

Even more amusing is we have had 6 weeks of solid cold weather and abit of mild shown on the charts and the back slapping comes out from people acting like its been a mild winter so far and that springlike weather will be here etc, 11C is no good with torrential rainfall is it :lol:

[SnowBallz]

Morning all. I see most are on the verge of prozac, (WHY) we had all this yesterday and was stated that why keep looking out 5 + days ahead.

Look at it like people who buy a lottery ticket, then scream blue murder when their six numbers haven't come up: "eh?? how can this be; I bought a ticket, therefore I should win! x 1,000,000"

If there were only better appreciation of odds and likeliness, then there wouldn't have to be such public self-flagellation. Considering that, these people pretend to interpret science, statistics and data - then it baffles me why cold, base probability is seemingly ignored. Indeed, some clown on that thread - I can't remember who as I'd fallen off my chair with laughter - asserted that his staunch belief in an Easterly lay within a special forecasting technique. Wow, sounds interesting: very mystical, tell us more! Turns out, it was a flock of pigeons which he hadn't seen for a while. Who needs data nodes when all you'd need ask is Bill Oddy, huh? I was hoping he'd return from his bird watching and say, "haha, I was only joking" but no - it appears he was actually being deadly serious. Worrying

I haven't bothered looking at the model thread this morning, but I can guess the amount of hot air resonating from it would rival any Atlantic flamethrower. I guess now that the models are kinda boring for the fantasists, then that thread will also go back to its 'usual' one thread a day update - because that's what always happens. I take it 'weather' goes on holiday when there isn't snow around - because, unless it's apocalyptic - they're seemingly not interested. This is where I empathise with the folk down at the Met Office who are not afforded breaks from forecasting: they have to do it 24 hours a day, 365 years a year - whatever the weather. Now that's science.

Would like to see a bit more snow this winter, but - with the days getting longer now - am also quite looking forward to perhaps an early spring, and some nice, wild weather. I was driving around a lot last week and what I hate about the cold is what it's done to all the roads: they are damaged Unfortunately I also live on a hill (a very nice hill, but still - a hill) and people drive/slide down it when it's icy and use the cars either side as crash barriers. Cost me £300 to have some idiots dent taken out from the last toboggan run, in early January. I also dread to think how much I'll have spent on my heating also this winter, so am quite looking forward to days when I don't have to have it going full blast. These are all the knock-on effects of cold weather, so - in a ways - there's a lot to be said of the idiom "be careful what you wish for."

Anyway, Arsenal v Man Utd today and I hope Arsenal get battered harder than the GFS just has

SB's Mood of the Day: Effervescent :wub: xx

Edited January 31, 2010 by Pete Tattum
Don't avoid the swear filter, please...

[La Bise]

What I do find a bit puzzling is the amount of people who seem to think only a bucked load in their backyard is good. Not everyone is lucky to live close to higher places like I am but if you are, all I can suggest is head for the hills, it's been the best winter walking season I can remember for a long time. There are still big drifts and compacted snow galore on Kinder Scout and it's not exactly difficult to hike up there. Too much time spent in front of a computer screen, too little looking for the white thing where it is...

[John London]

Day 13. The "Beast From The East" that is coming on the 8th February, could someone tell me what year that is?

Edited January 31, 2010 by John London

[Magadan]

Much is made by the mildies-cum-anti-coldies of the plus side of milder weather, i.e., lower heating bills, better driving conditions, fewer pensioners in casualty, etc., but that's just one side of the story. Some people, like me, have health issues that are eased by colder weather, oddly enough. Chiefly, I sleep much better in the cold spells than I do in mild weather because I have a bizarre overheating problem in my body related (I suspect) to bad circulation, even though I'd be above average fitness wise. My wife can't even share the same room as me any more as she needs to be insanely warm. Of course, summer time for me is torment, with a fan pointed at the bed and earplugs in to cut out the noise, as the sweat pours out of me. I often have to keep a water spray on hand to cool my legs down... I basically sleep best in a room temperature of around 1-3 C to be comfortable, and with a duvet to be snug(ish) in with the option of sticking my limbs out for the occasional 15-20 minutes throughout the night to cool down again. So yes, my nickname is "The Iceman" and that's one reason why I so love the cold and hate mildness, and get so frustrated at people being all overjoyed at yet more mild weather, as if this country isn't mild enough.

[johncoolj]

Day 13. The "Beast From The East" that is coming on the 8th February, could someone tell me what year that is?

The Models change so much but i still think the will come back based on the AO forcast which will hit very low around 8 to the 10th of feb we may get maybe 7 days of ice and cold before its gets mild again but as for this week the next 7 days its going to get very mild at times which is not so good time for the prozac

[Methuselah]

The models don't affect my mood, anymore - the weather will do what the weather will do? Strangely enough, though, the Mighty Spurs contriving to relinquish two more points in injury-time does! Is it possible that model-watching is similar to being a football fan??? :lol:

[Optimus Prime]

Well you can't really complain Pete. You've had the coldest December/Jan on record!

[John London]

So I now undestand that this "Beast From The East" isn't coming. I booked a day off work on the 8th February and bought a pair of high powered binoculars so I could see it first. I wonder how long it will be before the "Beast From The East" people are telling me there could be extreme and damaging winds with torrential rain and flooding coming from the "Pest From The West."

Edited January 31, 2010 by John London