Model Chat And Moods

[The Eagle]

I think the silence says it all about the ECM. Each chart worse then the previous for those who want cold. Turning very mild and wet and windy at times. Transitional snow for some on Wednesday. Looks like the last we will be seeing for a good while!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Edit: wrong thread!

Edited January 31, 2010 by The Eagle

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, if that run comes off, I might see the sun for a time on the 9th February!

[SP1986]

I hope it will turn milder for a change but it's not in my best interests, or anyone else for me to ramp up mild because I'm not like that, but I do hope we see at least one 15C this winter. Even last year had 15C here (end of Feb), and I haven't actually seen a winter where 15C hasn't been recorded here*

(*While ive been interested in forum chat, since 2002)

I genuinely don't mind mild, wet and windy, even stratus and drizzle, I'll take it because I appreciate the atmosphere, even if other people don't

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm getting a bit bored with constantly trawling through these arguments really. Not that I blame any of the members who defended TEITS, I just feel this is not the place for personal insults. If you don't like what someone says, don't read it!

Anyway, back on topic, and I'm not at all confident of a long period of zonal weather, as I doubt anyone really is. After almost total agreement over an easterly, with ensemble support as well, I don't see any reason to believe that the outlook after 72 hours is anywhere near settled. The ECM was almost a good run for cold, but went very badly wrong, with mild and drizzly being the theme if it verified. With a very negative AO and a slightly negative, albeit west-based NAO, slight changes could easily deliver cold or very mild, moreso than usual.

LS

[Mark Bayley]

It was actually seagulls, not pigeons

Turning much milder towards the weekend, but for how long?

The middle stages of the ECM are a horror show, as many have pointed out! My ideal scenario would be the GFS. Showers and longer spells of rain with temps around average (second week of Feb) This month does hold a lot of potential, stratosphere warming, -NAO and -AO. Can we make use of that potential, or are we going to be stuck on the wrong side?

[Ben_Cambs]

It was actually seagulls, not pigeons

Turning much milder towards the weekend, but for how long?

The middle stages of the ECM are a horror show, as many have pointed out! My ideal scenario would be the GFS. Showers and longer spells of rain with temps around average (second week of Feb) This month does hold a lot of potential, stratosphere warming, -NAO and -AO. Can we make use of that potential, or are we going to be stuck on the wrong side?

Well the late stages of ECM show the Euro High retreating much further south and that would end the Bartlett scenario around the 9th/ 10th. If that happens what happens after is up in the air. Stratospheric warming will be one of the key factors to help for a another cold spell. But this week apart from maybe transitional snow on Wednesday, is gonna be mild!

Edited January 31, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Mark Bayley]

Well the late stages of ECM show the Euro High retreating much further south and that would end the Bartlett scenario around the 9th/ 10th. If that happens what happens after is up in the air. Stratospheric warming will be one of the key factors to help for a another cold spell. But this week apart from maybe transitional snow on Wednesday, is gonna be mild!

Certainly looks milder towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Sunday looking the mildest day with widespread double figures, away from northern Scotland. After that and who knows. As i have already mentioned i prefer the GFS, temps nearer normal with showers and longer spells of rain ECM would be milder but nothing exceptional. We shall have to wait and see! The models have surprised many times this winter. Perhaps they will do it again.

[Snooz]

Well you can't really complain Pete. You've had the coldest December/Jan on record!

LOL, very true but you know us weather types apparently it's never enough hehe

and TBH because everyone else has been caught up in their own wee world and perhaps thinks that it's "usual" for Scotland to "always" get snow - it's probably gone largely unnoticed - but, hey we've had a ball on our Scottish thread.. thanks to the the Admins, Mods, Pete and Ross B et al for allowing us that space

[John London]

The 'Beast From The East' rode in on the eighth.

He froze all the noses of men with no faith.'

'The Pest From The West' was doomed to its fate.

Chill winds and ice had frozen its gate.

Edited February 1, 2010 by John London

[SP1986]

I hope you enjoy your meal tonight :unsure:

[Snowyowl9]

Well well well First model I looked today was GFS 0z the atlantic is coming in expected that.

But at day 8 to 10 very cold air indeed building up the the NE and then an channel low I thought interesting all is not lost.

GFS 6z not so good.

Next model I looked at backwards from T240 was ECM then kept going forward to this.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

I thought I was looking at last weeks ECM run.

But I wasn`t :unsure:

Edited February 1, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[sandstorm2]

To a mere mortal like myself and a complete amateur when it comes to weather forecasting, the models which I look at on a daily basis are starting to send me bonkers. Just when I think I have got something worked out and telling the family that they can dig out the tee shirts the models do an about turn. Yes I know it is in FI but nevertheless, there could be another cold spell round the corner and quite a potent one at that.

So please weather Gods make me look good for a change and give me some nice consistemt models over the next couple of days.

:unsure:

SS2

[SP1986]

At this moment I can't see a cold spell but I can see a vicious cycle occurring whereby the models show cold then let everyone down again! :lol:

The questions is will people be a bit more cautious this time or go in head first without a care in the world to have a good old ramp? :o

[shuggee]

[rhetorical question] What do you think Stephen [/rhetorical question]

[KTtom]

Worth a read of the BBC's monthly forecast......love the heading..."Briefly milder, then very, very cold!"

[SP1986]

[rhetorical question] What do you think Stephen [/rhetorical question]

:lol: I see your point Shuggs ! :o

Gosh I need to get some air today.

Worth a read of the BBC's monthly forecast......love the heading..."Briefly milder, then very, very cold!"

If that's the headline then I have to wonder who wrote it, a hacker? Not that I'm suggesting they don't know what they're doing, I just find it a bit worrying that that sort of headline is written, it doesn't give them much credibility in my opinion

[snowdrifter]

:lol: I see your point Shuggs ! :o

Gosh I need to get some air today.

If that's the headline then I have to wonder who wrote it, a hacker? Not that I'm suggesting they don't know what they're doing, I just find it a bit worrying that that sort of headline is written, it doesn't give them much credibility in my opinion

I've heard heard that tomorrow it'll say "It will soon be really really very very cold - honestly we mean it!!"

[SP1986]

Worth a read of the BBC's monthly forecast......love the heading..."Briefly milder, then very, very cold!"

ps. Just seen the forecast in question, I'm not even give it the time of day, they might be professionals but lets be fair about it, they don't have the ability to have as much accuracy and confidence as they seem to be suggesting with that forecast. :lol:

I've heard heard that tomorrow it'll say "It will soon be really really very very cold - honestly we mean it!!"

:o

[igloo]

Worth a read of the BBC's monthly forecast......love the heading..."Briefly milder, then very, very cold!"

strange looking forecast but will not complain if it comes true i have to say a bit different from the METS own outlook.this mornings ECM run does hint of some blocking by the weekend and we all no which model is the most reliable

[johncoolj]

Im sick of hearing the cold weather will return and wheres is michael fish is he snowed in again since last week

Edited February 1, 2010 by johncoolj

[Strider]

Im sick of hearing the cold weather will return and wheres is michael fish is he snowed in again since last week

Seeing as he appears to produce his forecast videos from his own house, the snow must have been really bad if he couldn't make it to his own living room! :)

I've noticed a distinct pattern on this thread - when the models show cold weather in 7 days + it's called deep FI and unlikely to happen, but when they show SWerlies it's a DONE DEAL and guaranteed to happen..!

The model consistency has been very poor in the last 3 weeks especially.

Unfortunately we have to accept that we cannot accurately predict what will happen next week.

[Optimus Prime]

Their monthly forecast is always a joke. It never comes into fruition even when they had that chuckling Everton Fox.

[Let_it_snow]

Models are so confusing, i am no expert with model watching however i can normally get an idea of how things will turn out even though i cannot judge FI at all. At the moment because FI is at such a short range I really have not got a clue whats going on to the point were I have not looked at the models for about a week. I just read what the more knowledgable have to say. But when the charts change so dramatically every day and in some instances every run I really have to say I just want to pull my hair our, rip all my clothes of and run down the street naked.....is that wrong?

One minute we are getting 'The Beast from the east' and the next its all mild and the game is....... almost up for anything cold and then its all change back to a raging easterly. When I looked at the ensembles the other day the mean was below -5 850 uppers for the whole run. How can it change its mind so dramatically in such a short time. I would expect the models to pick up on the general trend and then slowly move away from that trend but its literally good for cold then good for mild. I dont know how much longer I can bare to keep reading the model thread but obviously like the rest of you I will.

Seriously confused, disorientated and dazed!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

well seems as if the cold is back on, not expecting a legendary beast, but more optimistic about cold continental air from 7th, just get these 3 xceptionally wet days out of the way

dunno what happened over the weekend, why the cold spell disappeared on models, maybe less human input over the weekend

[SnowBallz]

well seems as if the cold is back on, not expecting a legendary beast, but more optimistic about cold continental air from 7th, just get these 3 xceptionally wet days out of the way

dunno what happened over the weekend, why the cold spell disappeared on models, maybe less human input over the weekend

Yup, cold evolution very much back on the cards by the looks of things - ECM painting quite a potent one at that. Remains to be seen whether the signal propagates across all models, and remains consistent. Considering the proposed mild scenario was fairly disparate, then you could argue that there is already a degree of underlying relative consistency.