Model Chat And Moods

[MR EXTREMES]

i for one am going to go against the ukmo to much of a dramatic change infact the gfs aswell.

thease solutions there throwing up are unrealiable and very messy i think your find its going to be a near miss situation.

and id expect the ecm to be close but no golden ticket.

im really starting to get rather tired by thease charts none can be trusted.

ive never in my life seen such crap model outputs lately its to much and very unrealistic.

infact if i were the met office i would not even bother with a 14day outlook its going to be wrong.

Edited February 3, 2010 by badboy657

[Mark Bayley]

Think i might wait a few days, then come back to the models Hopefully they will have all picked a trend, and agreed on it!

Edited February 3, 2010 by mark bayley

[Ben_Cambs]

Think i might wait a few days, then come back to models Hopefully they will have all picked a trend, and agreed on it!

I might start to get a little excited tonight if ECM follows UKMO and GFS. Otherwise....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

well unbelievable models, 06Z and 12Z show beast and not a cold outlier, ukmo also good, need ecmwf to show cold, but still FI

if all 3 models agree tonight then an easterly way more likely, just hope the 00z's dont show mild, weatheronline also going for cold

[John London]

Looks like the cold lovers are getting over excited again. Lets see how long it lasts this time.

[jtay]

Think i might wait a few days, then come back to the models Hopefully they will have all picked a trend, and agreed on it!

Quite. I'll post this here as it'll get crucified in the other thread. Apologies to the bosses too for trashing their output.

Here's all three of todays gfs ensemble suites with the transparency and start points adjusted.

.

Between +5 and -15 lines, it's pretty much 'spot the white' space after the weekend.

I think I'll forget the charts for the evening and watch the 2nd half instead

jt

[Hammer]

Looks like the cold lovers are getting over excited again. Lets see how long it lasts this time.

This is a weather forum, if cold lovers can't get excited here, where do you propose they go. Unless you own the site, either like it or lump it.

Why is it you can't find something else to do with your time, but wind people up, or have a dig at people in general.

[Ben_Cambs]

Quite. I'll post this here as it'll get crucified in the other thread. Apologies to the bosses too for trashing their output.

Here's all three of todays gfs ensemble suites with the transparency and start points adjusted.

.

Between +5 and -15 lines, it's pretty much 'spot the white' space after the weekend.

I think I'll forget the charts for the evening and watch the 2nd half instead

jt

Its fine to put the GFS ensembles on the model thread, feel free to do so. A lot of the time I post the Dutch ECM ensembles on the model thread. It is related to the models and that is allowed so you are allowed to post them.

[Snooz]

Last time i checked he was going for a mild february and people were congratulating him over it, i guess he changed his mind then.

I know that this will get moved, quite rightly so (actually I'm posting it in the moods thread where it belongs).

I'm sorry the above post in the model thread is (one of the many) uncalled for, For ine it has nothing to do with the models and for two it does not matter about the right or wrong (of a particular member) it's the blinking weather for goodness sake! - on a community forum it's the respect that's due to someone, anyone who at least follows up their posts with data and reasoning.. to be so flippant in a reply is total disrespect.

Poster could at least try to read the thread referred to before making such an off hand comment it might help their own respect immensely

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snooz

[TEITS]

Why is it you can't find something else to do with your time, but wind people up, or have a dig at people in general.

Unfortunately this thread should be renamed to "Model chat and moods and slag off your fellow members".

This winter there has been a rather unpleasant tone to some of the posts with far too many comments about members rather than the weather. I fully respect the contribution of Paul, Mods, NW forecasters and just as importantly the members themselves.

As for my mood this evening well im extremely happy with the models. These past 72hrs have been incredible and yet very tiring!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Unfortunately this thread should be renamed to "Model chat and moods and slag off your fellow members".

This winter there has been a rather unpleasant tone to some of the posts with far too many comments about members rather than the weather. I fully respect the contribution of Paul, Mods, NW forecasters and just as importantly the members themselves.

As for my mood this evening well im extremely happy with the models. These past 72hrs have been incredible and yet very tiring!

I fully agree. I mean we're discussing the weather, something very interesting and dynamic, but not really a topic which should create much conflict among members. Vigorous debate is absolutely fine, but nothing personal or unpleasant should be brought into these debates. As for the models, it has been quite a (to use the much overused phrase) rollercoaster over the last few days, genuinely, not just in the usual slight tweaking that goes on but in the real drama and constant changes which is the reason many of us joined this forum!

Personally, I find GP's analysis to be very, very good, with more in depth analysis than I even thought possible before I joined, while BFTP has also been pretty close to the mark this year with his methods which look increasingly useful to meteorology. For general model analysis, there are many other enlightened and interesting posters like yourself,IB,NS,SM, NSCS and TWS to name but a few, and let's not forget JH!

To have such a wealth of knowledge on one forum is quite amazing -let's not ruin it with pointless bickering!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

nogaps my favourite model of the 00z's, other models seem to only suggest snow for NE and E Scotland, NE and E England and SE England, nogaps more widespread snow

thought yesterdays gfs runs were better the 06Z and 12Z, also todays ecm has dry NW midlands written all over it, but all could change as it's FI

[John London]

This is a weather forum, if cold lovers can't get excited here, where do you propose they go. Unless you own the site, either like it or lump it.

Why is it you can't find something else to do with your time, but wind people up, or have a dig at people in general.

I'm beginning to get the distinct impression you don't like me.

Back to the moods; Still good this morning if a little less excited.

[cyclonic happiness]

might be enough time for another swing of the pendulum away from cold but I think it's near enough to the quick to be reliable

[Thunder Snow]

WOW what a great run for snow lovers, i think most areas could do well out of this. Even me lol. Wherever you are its gonna be :) :cold:

[Thundery wintry showers]

This winter has so far provided a large amount of the "sunshine and snow showers" setup with short sharp snowstorms delivered by those towering cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds, typically generated by cold air flowing over the North Sea.

I'm beginning to wonder if it's physically possible for me to get my "fill" of it, barring extreme-case scenarios where I get snowed in for a prolonged period. I don't think my enthusiasm for it is actually significantly lower than it was back in mid December when that first NE'ly outbreak of the 17th/18th was fast approaching.

So, in conclusion, bring on round 4!

[Weathizard]

Eastern England would get pasted no doubt from the GFS and UKMO runs, lots of shower and more organised snow would be piling in I think, probably quite a bit inland too.

Latest GEM is interesting with a channel low, potentially major snow event for south.

GME is similar too with a channel low, and a few ensembles show it, e.g:

So this is a possibility too, almost no support against a cold snap now at least.

Quick question from a relative novice, this channel low you speak of, what exactly does this do?

[BarnetBlizzard]

524 DAM thickness in the SE at monday Lunchtime---- Low heights, low thickness = snow showers---

Allignment of flow is Thames Streamer territory..

S

Hehe i love your, TEITIS and BFTP posts. Always simple, clever and show it how it is so the less experienced members such as myself can understand whats going on without even having to look at the models

[NorthantsSnow]

Well my "nice long break" from the models ended up being 2 days. I said to myself I would only come back if snow symbols appeared in the 5 day forecast (i.e. under T120) and to my amazement, they have begun to creep in. Hence me returning.

Seems like the models were all going through a bit of a rough patch but finally they are in agreement over the easterly/northeasterly. Fantastic stuff!

Still a lot to be decided in terms of snow distribution but streamers etc cannot be ruled out and won't be accurately forecast until much nearer to the time. I remember this clearly on February 2nd 2009. The London streamer did not show up on the GFS until about 2 days beforehand.

[PB22]

Great output tonight overall, especially compared to where we could have been headed not so long ago. Hopefully this cold spell will be a memorable end to my last winter here before I move to pastures new.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Paul B

[kent]

Good luck to all who may get snow but from my own location in Poole Dorset it will be rain as per usual. No matter what the charts suggest the winters of the christmas pudding are never cold enough to get anything more than a possible 1cm here. After so many disappointments Who can blame us on the south coast for being anything but pessimistic.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Good luck to all who may get snow but from my own location in Poole Dorset it will be rain as per usual. No matter what the charts suggest the winters of the christmas pudding are never cold enough to get anything more than a possible 1cm here. After so many disappointments Who can blame us on the south coast for being anything but pessimistic.

better than the midlands! if that ecm verifies, poole and all south coast will see snow,

[kent]

TY Mark youve renewed my faith lets hope so.

[Bobby]

Good luck to all who may get snow but from my own location in Poole Dorset it will be rain as per usual. No matter what the charts suggest the winters of the christmas pudding are never cold enough to get anything more than a possible 1cm here. After so many disappointments Who can blame us on the south coast for being anything but pessimistic.

A channel low looks a realistic possibility and could give you a good dumping of snow.

Something like this: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-2-2-144.png?12

[kent]

A channel low looks a realistic possibility and could give you a good dumping of snow.

Something like this: http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gensp/run/gens-2-2-144.png?12

Cheers Barb if that happens I will get the kids to build a snowman and we will name it after you/.