Model Chat And Moods

[damianslaw]

Upstream signals as we head towards middle of Feb is for extensive northern blocking, watch the energy in the jet quickly transfer on a more southerly course next week, it is already rather southerly now, don't be fooled into thinking those lows are going to steamroller into Scandanavia.. none have so far this winter and the signals don't support this at all, this weekend we could quite easily see an easterly flow develop for a time - which will affect the course of the 'big low'.

I firmly expect heights to build over Greenland next week, low pressure will get stuck to our west and then eventually transfer south east into Europe opening up the floodgates for those heights to our north to ridge in - a very similiar synoptic to what we have now, but instead of the atlantic winning out next week the cold polar air will.

Must admit the chopping and changing with the models on a day to day basis lately is resulting in my faith in them being very low indeed, trust your own instincts an look at the longer term signals, beyond 96 hours the models don't seem to be holding up at the moment.

[smich]

Hello, I'm a bit drunk (so excuse me) and I want 2 emoticons banned from this forum please, because they is winding me up!

This one: (especially) because it is in every fewkin downgrade gane over type post.

And this one: because it is in every Armageddon T384 FI chart post.

I thank you

smich

[SP1986]

Hello, I'm a bit drunk (so excuse me) and I want 2 emoticons banned from this forum please, because they is winding me up!

This one: (especially) because it is in every fewkin downgrade gane over type post.

And this one: because it is in every Armageddon T384 FI chart post.

I thank you

smich

:wacko:

[SnowBallz]

Hello, I'm a bit drunk (so excuse me) and I want 2 emoticons banned from this forum please, because they is winding me up!

This one: (especially) because it is in every fewkin downgrade gane over type post.

And this one: because it is in every Armageddon T384 FI chart post.

I thank you

smich

I second the motion to ban ~>

It's annoying habitual overuse by one particular member, whilst we had the 'SE Cold Discussion' threads, had me googling for local gun-hire shops. Rest assured, my AK-47 wouldn't miss him like the snow clouds were off the NE Kent coastline.

With any luck, Darwin will be right, and evolution will phase him out.

I don't mind so much for ~> which usually means a nice pretty picture to click on. However, if it's used mid-waffle, then I just glaze over it and look for some more interesting hyperlinks :lol:

Oh, and I like both of these ones: :lol: & :wub:. Don't ever get rid of those or I'd be lost!

[Optimus Prime]

That is usually used when one run has changed from being a beast to a wet flop. It really pises me off because afterwards you can usually guarantee the ECM missing data post won't be far away.

But it's never missing data when it's mild to cold?

[londonsnow]

eh up. not getting excited, but interesting developments from the 6z around 150. 12z will be a must see

[Let_it_snow]

My mood today with the models is 'OH MY GOD I DON'T BELEIVE IT'

Can we have a new thread called the above so that I can just post 'OH MY GOD I DON'T BELEIVE IT' every run? Call it the therapy thread!

Edited February 3, 2010 by Let_it_snow

[billy]

And at T114 we have classic closed low near northern spain, sending the energy away. Good High orintation and the cold spell is definately on.

It's unbelievable different to METO though even at 72 or 96.

And also unbelievably different to the 00z run

[Matty M]

Imagine having temperatures of -1c/-10c and the bouys in the middle of the ocean at 0c/-7c

Man i just want to witness that!

[snowmadchrisuk]

This has been a most interesting week so far wrt the model outputs, I have never seen so much variation at short range between runs! Can honestly say I am enjoying it greatly, although I think we should have a wager thread, where we can place our bets on which model will prove correct (if any)

My other punt is the 9th Feb

Sorry slighlty off topic

Ps- Thanks for all the great posts from the more knowledgeable members on here such as GP, JohnH, NickS, Teits, IanB ect..... (its a great help)

Your punt will be correct ... It is my 30th Birthday on the 9th so it blumming better be

Edited February 3, 2010 by snowmadchrisuk

[Slinky]

Your punt will be correct ... It is my 30th Birthday on the 9th so it blumming better be

Snap, well a few years older then you, but the 9th of feb up till the mid 90s always used to have snow

[weather eater]

Nice to see most are exercising caution, until we get model agreement I see that as the best way to approach matters. The models are rather like dogs on a scent, follow one smell then pick up a different one and then pick up on the first one again.

[carnun]

Sorry I refuse to go down the GFS fantasy route,we've been here before and remember the GFS 18hrs run a few days back was wrong within T-72hrs so i'm certainly not buying any of this latest run. It's a leap of faith too far unless the ECM and UKMO back this tonight. The UKMO raw output would have to perform the mother of all backtracks to get anywhere close to this.

well that settles it then. if the gfs is out on its own on this again it'll cave in like it nearly always does.

[Matty M]

Major flip in GFS Ensembles on the 6z

[Snowplough33]

Major flip in GFS Ensembles on the 6z

Yes for the better

[ribster]

I'm not saying its impossible but we have to bear in mind that it doesn't have support yet and also take into account the GFS ability to go from one extreme to another between runs. I'll admit the trend today is better from most of the models as they generaly clear the shortwave se off the main trough without leaving residual energy behind, this is crucial, also the Norwegian trough which I've been obsessing over in here fills more quickly and allows a stronger ridge from the ne.

One has to say though, that the date of 8th Feb just keeps on popping up again and again...

[Weathizard]

Lets hope it stays like this for all us coldies.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just wondering, but is that the low at +216, but you are right lets just hope that easterly materealises first.

SS2

Yes that is the low I was referring to , As I said near on Impossible but would provide 50cm Snow plus if it happened.

[kar999]

I'm not in a position to see/hear the BBC/MO weather but I wonder how far they are going out on their broadcasts with such uncertainty in the models. I'll try to catch the 12:57 R4 forecast and report back unless someone has seen BBC news 24

In the past, they rarely go forward more than +24 hours if they havent nailed anything down yet, which is about as good as window forecasting.

(EDIT: Wrong thread I know but graupels falling here.)

Edited February 3, 2010 by kar999

[MisfitDog3]

If it was any other Winter in recent years I would be casually disregarding some of these model cold forecast runs as little more than frontier gibberish. The problem is that this is not a 'normal' even larger teapot we have been used to so the more extreme cold scenarios become believable...if only to the next violent swing.

I suppose the main problem is that we are slap bang in no mans land between the two blocks at present. Minor variations in Atlantic/Eastern Europe air mass locations have fairly dramatic effects on the forecast runs...

[Totoro]

Perhaps a clue that UKMO arent buying it. Looks like they still with SW influence. Cold, yes possible, but the easterly of GSF

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Feb 2010 to Wednesday 17 Feb 2010:

Mainly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with hill snow in the north at first. Brighter conditions with showers, some heavy, in the south and west, then following. The rest of the week remains unsettled with bands of rain spreading in from the southwest and turning to sleet and snow at times across northern, eastern and central parts. Some showers and brighter spells, between these bands of rain, temperatures close to or a little below average in many areas. For the rest of the period there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast, but it looks likely that unsettled, rather cold conditions will continue, with rain, sleet and snow at times, temperatures below average with overnight frost and ice.

Updated: 1203 on Wed 3 Feb 2010

Printable view days 1 to 15

Their 15 day forecasts are best ignored - remember only a couple of days ago they were going for "very, very cold" weather next week.

Too much changing at present. As is now the case, ignore anything past 72 hours, and don't even take that as 100% accurate.

[Snowplough33]

Did you expect them to go with a flip the size of GFS immediately?? seems to tie in pefectly with what ian posted yesterday about their thoughts for next week and more importantly, doesnt fit in with raw UKMO output.

incidentally, parallel 06z GFS ens are better than op ens

Yeh I was kinda hoping!!

But the jist of it is cold, which is good. Will be fascinating watching the models run today and the next couple of days

[smich]

I second the motion to ban ~>

It's annoying habitual overuse by one particular member, whilst we had the 'SE Cold Discussion' threads, had me googling for local gun-hire shops. Rest assured, my AK-47 wouldn't miss him like the snow clouds were off the NE Kent coastline.

With any luck, Darwin will be right, and evolution will phase him out.

I don't mind so much for ~> which usually means a nice pretty picture to click on. However, if it's used mid-waffle, then I just glaze over it and look for some more interesting hyperlinks

Oh, and I like both of these ones: & . Don't ever get rid of those or I'd be lost!

Thanks for supporting the motion Snowballz!. I guess it's just a symptom of the frustration of people when the model retreat away from a cold solution.

You try and tell them not to get upset/excited over individual runs, but they never listen. Sometimes you feel like you're banging your head against a brick wall....

[robnor1]

I'm with Punxsutawney Phil on the forecast.

[DAVID SNOW]

I'm with Punxsutawney Phil on the forecast.

I think you should repeat this post tomorrow at 14.35