Model Chat And Moods

[Bobby]

Oh my, I thought the rollercoaster was over and now it's back with vengeance. The models better not be leading us up the garden path again.

Here we ago again!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rInMQWpGpYg

[Jason T]

Well chop change,chop change. 18z tonight and 00z and 12z will be models to watch NOW. ecm and gfs, Thats some easterly coming through later,maybe sooner. Cant see this mild spell getting to far i know they said brief, more a 48 hour flit.

I agree as well very potent.

Edited February 1, 2010 by silver line

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yup, cold evolution very much back on the cards by the looks of things - ECM painting quite a potent one at that. Remains to be seen whether the signal propagates across all models, and remains consistent. Considering the proposed mild scenario was fairly disparate, then you could argue that there is already a degree of underlying relative consistency.

well all models show continental air at 120, even minor ones, so more chance of an easterly now than before the weekend,

this time last year was great mon 02 feb 09

[John London]

I have just read through tonights posts on the 'Model Output Discussion' and have finally reached the conclusion that they haven't got a clue what the weather is going to be like tomorrow let alone in 10 days time. It's a complete waste of time, but strangely still fun to read.

[nick sussex]

I have just read through tonights posts on the 'Model Output Discussion' and have finally reached the conclusion that they haven't got a clue what the weather is going to be like tomorrow let alone in 10 days time. It's a complete waste of time, but strangely still fun to read.

If it's such a waste of time why bother using the thread? i'm sure your positive thoughts will be very encouraging to everyone who takes the time out to study the models and post!!! Perhaps if you studied the models and took some time to understand the complexities you might cut out the sniping remarks!

[Rich44]

I saw this article today and think it may help The Met Office with their accuracy

http://www.newsbiscuit.com/2010/01/20/met-office-to-introduce-retrospective-weather-forecasts/

[John London]

If it's such a waste of time why bother using the thread? i'm sure your positive thoughts will be very encouraging to everyone who takes the time out to study the models and post!!! Perhaps if you studied the models and took some time to understand the complexities you might cut out the sniping remarks!

I'm beginning to wonder if the problem isn't the complexities of the models but the lack of complexity in the mind of the viewer of the complex models. Are you still following this?

I deal with biological thermodynamics and that can be tricky to understand with an open mind, but impossible to comprehend with a biased mind.

Edited to say; The more you read the post the clearer the problem gets. "Negative Posts" are ones that indicate mild, or average weather patterns. "Positive Posts" indicate cold, very cold, or anything extreme. Do you see the problem?

Edited February 1, 2010 by John London

[snowdrifter]

Frosty on the model output thread mentioned about 4 lots of GFS outputs a day is a bit like playing slot machines. That got me thinking about how we all want the major models to drop into line, so I thought the following picture might sum up the mood of many atm...

Here's hoping!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Frosty on the model output thread mentioned about 4 lots of GFS outputs a day is a bit like playing slot machines. That got me thinking about how we all want the major models to drop into line, so I thought the following picture might sum up the mood of many atm...

Here's hoping!

I can tell you honestly that really made me laugh!!

So true!

Nice one!!

Edited February 1, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Eugene]

Yes excellent post Mr Data just showing how each days GFS pushes back that deep low for saturday morning.

It seems we can only have confidence in the models when mild is showing,every time they go cold its always a rollercoaster ride.

Hey we have just recorded the coldest January since 1987 and the first half of January was exceptionally cold as well as a cold December, i'm tired of seeing these posts always saying we can't have confidence in cold weather when we can this winter and last winter.

I have no confidence in mild weather dominating after the way this winter has gone hence why i`m always favouring cold this winter.

[snowdrifter]

I can tell you honestly that really made me laugh!!

So true!

Nice one!!

Cheers! Maybe the analogy should be a 10-reel machine - there's so much that seems to need to be right atm. A 'hold' or 'nudge' feature of some kind would be welcome.

[TEITS]

Some will think im crazy but due to the uncertain output im beginning to lose interest. Chasing this E,ly reminds me of my schooldays when I fancied this girl. After saying no to me after several attempts I actually lost interest!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Defining runs this evening IMO.

Im hoping gfs backs ukmo but after looking at the ens id be very suprised if it does.

[Matty M]

Only defining if they go mild Happy Days.

If they go cold, only the start of a trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[johncoolj]

Well looks like we are gettin some mild weather for the next week and the feb 8th cold spell is not going to happen pity yesterdays models where on the cold side todays look mild wheres the easterly winds gone looks like the bbc long range cold spell wont happen

Edited February 2, 2010 by johncoolj

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

All eyes towards the shortwave near Norway, we want this weakened and pushed east to allow better ridging from the NE, this will allow a better jet tilt to the lows approaching.

Not playing ball again nick.

GFS is not going to back down,ukmo will surely have to now?

[johncoolj]

Its just stupid at this stage the models change every day one day its the coldest spell since 63 on the way next day its the mild weather

Just shows the models are a mess its pointless even to talk about them east west south winds i bet by fri the models will show another cold spell which wont happen simple facts are we have had a cold spell for 4 weeks and wont be getting another only some odd cold days from here on out winter 2010 will be like any standerd winter uk ireland mild europe cold esp east

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Oh my gfs 12z looks worse than 06z ?????

Temps of 10 to 12 degrees on Saturday on gfs with the Atlantic dominating.

I hope ukmo doesnt look like this.

[igloo]

todays 12z run is more progressive less hights to our north and east with a silly shortwave over northern norway only one way this is going.whats the bets UKMO will follow suit

[cooling climate]

UKMO looking much, much better at t96.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The UKMO is not as good as this morning at 96hrs but still holds the upper trough energy much further west.

Not what i wanted to hear nick,any sort of backtrack from ukmo is bad news for an Easterly.

[Bobby]

UKMO +120 gone pearshaped now.

Going so at least.

[cooling climate]

Oh dear UKMO t120 chart is not very good. Bad start to the evening I guess.

The t144 chart is a horror show and no sign of a -AO in sight.

Bad run by the UKMO hopefully normal service will resume tomorror.

Edited February 2, 2010 by cooling climate

[igloo]

UKMO +120 gone pearshaped now.

Going so at least.

yes going the same way as this mornings ECM run bad news

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO +120 gone pearshaped now.

Going so at least.

Yep and GME looks poor as well.

Looking very much like a no-no how disappointing .