Model Chat And Moods

[cooling climate]

I must say CC that your confidence in next week is inspiring, as for the Easterly, I don't care how it evolves as long as it does evolve, it's always hugely difficult to get all the high's and lows's in the correct position to bring cold air to the uk but this winter is the glowing exception. An interesting N'ly coming up, a slower almost sluggish start as it will now be delayed by 24-36 hours but probably worth the wait with at least 4 days of sunshine and snow showers potential with frosty nights plus some trough features which should pep up the showers at times and merge them together.

Lol cheers. Maybe my posts have been to much the other way as North Sea Snow Convection has said and a middle

ground is needed but this easterly was on the cards as early as last week imo and if I did not feel so sure about it

I certainly would not say it just to cheese off other posters or get their backs up.

Anyway just like yourself I imagine and many other posters I sure are looking forward to this evenings outputs.

Also it looks like there will be plenty of proper winter weather over the next five days to enjoy for many parts of

the country.

Edited January 27, 2010 by cooling climate

[PB22]

This was posted by a member on TWO:

I emailed Met Office before lunch and got this very rapid response. Credit to them - the email reply came back in just over 1 hour. This should put this one to bed.

Well done Tara (Weather Desk Advisor)

"The 6 to 15 day forecast issued at around 1130 each day, and is based on the 00Z model runs and ensembles.

It is produced by one person, but they do consult our Chief Forecaster and Medium Range Forecaster before

they are issued, so there is some team work involved.

I am not sure where people have got the idea that we use the 12Z runs, as they are out of date by that time.

It may be that many of the internet forums only look at GFS, as that goes out to 14 days, and they may see

that we are slow to follow to that model, but we look at much more information and need to take a balanced view."

Right, as my post has been deleted for some reason and this one allowed, I shall reply directly to this although I suspect it will be deleted as someone obviously thinks I am on a wind up.

This alledged email totally contradicts what I have been reliably informed of. I don't mind what people choose to believe, but I would be very sceptical of that and I am sure that if people monitor the 6-15 day forecasts regularly then more times than not the updates will appear more in line with the previous day's data - as today's does.

[nick sussex]

Lol, funny that. I'd much rather believe my trusted source than this alledged email reply. But there we are!

This is turning into quite a drama! Of course you can't name your trusted source but it would seem very bizarre if they did the outlook using out of date data, if this is the case why don't they just issue it at the same time as they do the 3 to 5 day outlook rather than wait till the afternoon.

Regardless those further outlooks change as much as the models and so i think people should not get too hung up on them.

[PB22]

I know it will seem like a kop out, but I'm afraid I can't name my source as much as I would like to. Afterall, I'm sure no-one here would want anyone to lose their livelihood over something thats relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things.

[Pen Llyn]

Hope you don't mind me posting this, but I was told that I was accused of fabricating an email reply from the Met Office on a thread on Netweather and a poster (PaulB?) was saying that he had a source that said the Met O used old model data to produce their daily 6 to 15 day outlook.

Here's is the reply I received from the Met Office today at 1.19pm this afternoon. I suggest Paul B emails the Met Office directly, rather than rely on a "source"

Thank you for your enquiry. Please see a response from one of my forecasting collegues:

"The 6 to 15 day forecast issued at around 1130 each day, and is based on the 00Z model runs and ensembles.

It is produced by one person, but they do consult our Chief Forecaster and Medium Range Forecaster before

they are issued, so there is some team work involved.

I am not sure where people have got the idea that we use the 12Z runs, as they are out of date by that time.

It may be that many of the internet forums only look at GFS, as that goes out to 14 days, and they may see

that we are slow to follow to that model, but we look at much more information and need to take a balanced view.

I hope this helps, and thank you for taking the time to contact the Met Office."

Kind Regards TaraWeather Desk Advisor

Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.

Tel: 0870 900 0100 or +44 (0)1392 88 5680 Fax: 0870 900 5050 Email: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Met Office Hadley Centre - No 1 in the world in the THES review of geosciences research centres <BR style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR style="mso-special-character: line-break">

Your personal details will be stored in our database. The information will not be passed to any third parties. Please advise us if you do not wish your details to be stored. The Met Office is an Executive Agency of the UK Ministry of Defence and is registered under the Data Protection Act 1998.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well that puts that to bed then!

Obviously the meto DO use the 0z runs for their daily update.

I think the less said about this the better.

[MR EXTREMES]

well the met office medium range forecast is rather exciting if you ask me.

but will it or wont it lol.

i feel a sudden feeling that people are not as confident as last night but id take little notice of this mornings outputs i reckon we will know within the next couple of days whether it will be depression or delight.

[VillagePlank]

Well, I've got to be honest ... cold, but boring (at least for the SE)

[snowmadchrisuk]

Plenty of snow around this weekend before the bitter cold hits next week.

Apart from possible back edge Snow Friday Morning , I do not see much Snow this weekend on any of the models. Showers on the Coasts maybe but inland doesn't look very promising.

[La Bise]

Am I supposed to be "depressed" because the models show, at worse, a spell of cold and settled weather rather than cold and snowy...as if. Rather that than the "excitement" of a mild gale blowing from the SW...

[Ben_Cambs]

The signals are there for a prologned cold spell from around the 8th Feb. Interesting times ahead

[Lewis]

Well for starters the E,ly isn't at +240 if you look at the GEFS mean.

As for downgrades. Well cast your mind back a few days when the N,ly was replaced by milder W,lys as the HP topples. The GEFS mean at the time was above 0C! Remember how I said I was going to take a break from the models. So you could argue the N,ly has upgraded the cold spell with regards to length.

Nobody is saying the E,ly is nailed. What we are saying is the outlook looks dominated by blocking to the NE but its where this blocking positions itself thats uncertain.

I really wish members would look at the wider picture i.e GEFS mean, SLP mean for UK, Iceland, Oslo. Just using the operationals doesn't give you an accurate respresentation of the models.

In regards to "I really wish members would look at the wider picture i.e GEFS mean, SLP mean for UK, Iceland, Oslo."

I really wish more members would look at the "smaller" picture in regards to the models now and over the coming few days. One of the main reasons why a lot of people on here get too dissapointed is because they are always looking for something "better" or more suited for them in FI, and don't appreciate what we have now.

Thats fine but it just makes winter feel a lot shorter! and before you know it, spring's here.

Over the past 5-6 years. I have not once relied on something in FI, because it's so evident that 99.9% of the time there is vast changes within reliable time frame. Things change all the time, as do the models. There is no way enough consistancy/accuracy within any model to be even 20% sure of something out in FI.

It's going to be cold with some snow for people, i think other members should concentrate on the models over the coming few days, with regards frontal snow. Let's sink our teeth into these models.. They will be snow for some.

You also claimed on your last post, that this current cold spell would be mainly dry for you, does that mean your going to keep looking for armegeddon in the models every run? I think it's a waste of time, and no doubt we'll be having this convosation again in 3 weeks time.

Lets enjoy what we have now.

And than you get this comment lol;

The easterly on the 00z GFS doesn't look very strong. Reminds me of a stab at an easterly we had a year or two ago that was virtually useless in the south for snow.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[John London]

I've been working so haven't been able to keep up with the "Easterly" chat. Is it still in F1?

[MR EXTREMES]

cooling climate and north sea snow convection i think you are both value the model thread and both have valid and intresting points to make.

the models are never clear cut out in fi but this winter has not been the norm in regards to other years,

i think blocking has been very sustained this winter i get the feeling the neg ao has helped alot in regards to this also the alantic is not its norm with weaker systems add stronger block with southerly tracking jet this all adds with ofcoarse many other factors.

right now things seem like there falling into place once again,

whether this continues is anyones guess,

and it is guess work and human/model inputs the amtosphere is always chaotic and small differences can have big effects thats why model watching does not always go to plan for us coldies but im in the opion that there is a certain trend building towards colder weather in the uk trouble is detail is in fi right now.

but as things get closer we will know for certain.

but as always there is a chance it could go t*ts up just takes one distubance to throw the whole lot into chaos.

so its always good to be realistic even though im the one that screams winters over at the first hurdle just goes to show how the model rollercoaster can get to someone who wishes for diffence in weather type.

right now theres are conflicts in the models but this is to be expected in fi but its great to see people looking into fi and giving there thoughts this is why net weather has one of the best model threads on the internet.

now all eyes down for tonights output hopefully for us coldies where be shouting bingo lol.

[Buzzit]

Hello All

Have been reading the various comments on here and keeping note

The end of the 12Z GFS run is a monster , I dont think the UK could cope

with that output.

I have to add that we are in exactly the same position we were in during the

first cold spell of this winter where x amount of people thought something

would happen and x wouldnt (no change there)

In case somebody is running through the thread and scratching their head

the following may translate as a three point update

1) There will be a northerly this weekend

2) there will be a period of more mild weather next week

3) For the last few days there has been the makings of an easterly showing in FI

However it has remained in FI and continues to backdate, though it certainly is a

recurring theme in the various model output, and synoptics continue to become

more favourable to the idea of an easterly without confirming it

Edited January 28, 2010 by Buzzit

[sandstorm2]

The only contribution I can make to the model debate is that there does not look like any mild zonality in the near future and what the charts are showing at the moment is cold for the foreseeable future......but then again that might change.

SS2

[John London]

I was wondering if it would be possible for some of the contributors to the Model Discussion thread to take a little more care with their spelling and grammar as it can on occasion be quite difficult to understand exactly what point the poster is actually trying to convey. I am still thoroughly enjoying reading all the very technical jargon used in there, sadly still waiting for the mythical "Beast From The East" that they keep promising. Keep up the good work.

[russh]

not sure if this is the right place

i have just posted on media a link to our local BBC forcasters (paul Hudson) blog

he is saying how he/met office are interpreting the models for the possibilty of an easterly blast

[smich]

Hello!

Being of the ephemeral lightbold of the dreamymost, I would like to offer my deep thoughkus on the developy situe herein at this placeybode.

Deep joy of the high pressicale over the Siberian permafrosty. We ask, "if all the highs of the Northern Hemibode were but one high, what a great big highhullollopper that would bold!" Yes! And, if the deep cold transnit out the backgrove and regressicale west, we'll all be in a deep joy of slippedyslidey in the icygripper!

But wait! The scintillatey detail of the returfold of that high, it's not set in the hardbold of the stoneymost, so we could all either be doing a tearyshed to the sound of the scrapy catgut violin or doing a deep joy of the swivelly hippy in the snow like we've never seen it before!

Stay cool everyone!

[SP1986]

I actually think despite the whole 'we haven't got mild zonality, phew' suggestion, I would argue mild zonality is actually quite rare and difficult to get. We havent had it for a few years now, and even the warmest winters didn't necessarily feature zonality. Zonality might just be one of those overused words, like the dates 1963 and 1947.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Although I agree that "zonality" is sometimes over-used I don't think "mild zonality" is rare at all- indeed I think it's the default UK winter pattern, and has especially been so in most winters of the last 22 years.

Winter 2006/07 was mild zonal for most of the time, the only notable exceptions being colder anticyclonic weather in the second half of December and late Jan/early Feb. 2007/08 was mild zonal for most of the time except for anticyclonic interludes in mid December and a sizeable chunk of February and a brief easterly on the 3rd January.

This winter and last winter have however been notable for their near-absence of mild zonality.

[Rollo]

The excitment grows and I have no fingernails left!!! It looks like we will not have a victor in this battle for a few days yet so viewing the charts should be taken with 2 prozac.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Don't you just wsih you could just bag that run. Would be brillaint for the whole country, strong winds heavy constant snow shower .

I stongly belive in the next week we will see constant upgrades in the models as this easterly is the most obvious solution witha giant scandi high and massive cold pool. Perfect:)

[John London]

Is the "Best From The East" still in F1?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ecm looks great in FI, reminds me of feb 47, looking at charts, lows look like tracking south with the massive high to our north

gfs is much worse for weekend 6-7th, the fantastic charts are too far in FI, 264-276, too far away