Model Chat And Moods

[snowspotter]

I can honestly say this easterly wait and the comments on the model output can become exceedingly tedious. One minute everyone is up and posting charts 10 days out and that its 90% certain the next 12 hours the west is going to win and the easterly is put back (again) . Whats the point in saying that its nailed or 90% certain or posting great charts and then the following morning being all glum saying its not. Been on this site years now . To be honest I only now glance at the discussion on the model output. Basically the models are not up to it . They can only pick a trend and to be honest they are not often that good at that. Anything mnore than 5 days and they invariably are inaccurate so to discuss details on them is a complete waste of time imo.

As for the current spell a nice cold weekend .

Further ahead who knows but my cynical money is on no real easterly of note. If its does arrive I think everyone will be so fed up of waiting for it they will just shrug their shoulders or be moaning about its demise in three days ! . I think we have been talking about it since mid January now !!!. Its becoming like a broken record !

Roll on summer when I can get out more and not be drawn to the GFS !

[John London]

Day 12. Is "The Beast From The East" still in FI?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Day 12. Is "The Beast From The East" still in FI?

Lol. Good point, it has been there for a bit. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png GFS wants it, ECM ensembles want it, the ECM op is less keen and the UKMO is having none of it!

Are any of them right? I have no idea!

[SnowBallz]

Day 12. Is "The Beast From The East" still in FI?

Yes, very much so. And guess what, it's "a week away"

Why is it soooo hard for people to understand that, if scenarios like this are forever "a week away" then, just maybe, it's never going to happen? And, instead of lending any credence to models (which are then disproven) perhaps these people need to dismiss such patterns from the outset? Isn't that true 'progress'?

But, by the looks of things, people don't like either admitting that they are wrong, or simply don't want to learn from their mistakes. Probably a lot of ego involved me thinks.

[John London]

The "Beast From The East" is arriving on the 8th February. I'm taking the day off to see it. Could someone let me know what it looks like when it arrives as I don't want to miss it.

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes, very much so. And guess what, it's "a week away"

Why is it soooo hard for people to understand that, if scenarios like this are forever "a week away" then, just maybe, it's never going to happen? And, instead of lending any credence to models (which are then disproven) perhaps these people need to dismiss such patterns from the outset? Isn't that true 'progress'?

But, by the looks of things, people don't like either admitting that they are wrong, or simply don't want to learn from their mistakes. Probably a lot of ego involved me thinks.

Because there is MANY signals for a colder spell. We have the NAO trending NEGATIVE. We have the AO trending into DEEP NEGATIVE, a lot deeper than the last spell. There is a massive high over Siberia trending WESTWARDS, and a link up with Greenland looks more than possible. The Atlantic is weak. Dont forget that in Mid November the models picked up a cold spell for Mid December, and it happened. FI can work out in the end. The latest ECM ensembles for London, average 2C, from the 7/8th. If we dismiss patterns if they look "too good to be true" then thats a bad call IMO.

UKMO goes out to T+144. ECM goes out to T+240 and GFS goes out to T+384. Its unlikely we will see a Easterly before the 7th, which is T+192 away. There is more cold ensembles than milder ensembles easily.

The agreement in such as distance has been quite amazing so far, and usually it is unlikely for models to agree totally past T+120. So if you write off this Easterly now, that is a bad call. If you write off the Atlantic now, it is a bad call.

So all Im saying is there has been amazing agreement for a lot colder weather in the not so distant future, and it looks unlikely IMO that the Atlantic will take charge

Edit: Regarding your recent post on the model output thread.

The outbreak of the Easterly will never keep getting back and back as you seem to suggest. There is a point that there isnt the right signals and conditions for such an outbreak to develop. The 8th of Feb is getting closer and closer to us and there is still a lot of suggestions of an Easterly. For such agreement far out is quite incredible. We will see what the next few days bring.....

Edited January 30, 2010 by Snowman0697

[SnowBallz]

Because there is MANY signals for a colder spell. We have the NAO trending NEGATIVE. We have the AO trending into DEEP NEGATIVE, a lot deeper than the last spell. There is a massive high over Siberia trending WESTWARDS, and a link up with Greenland looks more than possible. The Atlantic is weak. Dont forget that in Mid November the models picked up a cold spell for Mid December, and it happened. FI can work out in the end. The latest ECM ensembles for London, average 2C, from the 7/8th. If we dismiss patterns if they look "too good to be true" then thats a bad call IMO.

UKMO goes out to T+144. ECM goes out to T+240 and GFS goes out to T+384. Its unlikely we will see a Easterly before the 7th, which is T+192 away. There is more cold ensembles than milder ensembles easily.

The agreement in such as distance has been quite amazing so far, and usually it is unlikely for models to agree totally past T+120. So if you write off this Easterly now, that is a bad call. If you write off the Atlantic now, it is a bad call.

So all Im saying is there has been amazing agreement for a lot colder weather in the not so distant future, and it looks unlikely IMO that the Atlantic will take charge

"Signals". Signals change all the time - surely I don't have to tell you this? The "signal" for today can (and does) vary widly to what the "signal" might be suggesting in 48, even 24hours time. All the NAO and AO numbers mean is that it is more favourable for the Jet to sink South and colder air to follow with it. But that's it - it does not mean de facto cold spell (which many seem to think)

The Atlantic is weak? Says who, says you? Says anyone who wants their cold forecast to verify, that's who. They said the Atlantic was weak in early January, and that - because of this "fact" - then the blocking would remain and "reload after reload" would ensue. Oh, but what happened? The Atlantic kicked it out of the way. I guess it wasn't so weak as the fantasists convinced themselves into believing it was.

How can you seriously reference possibly the one and only time when something waaaay out in "FI" has turned out to verify, as good cause to dismiss the thousands of other times when it's been spectacularly wrong? A success ratio of 1:1000 isn't all that great y'know. Go to the toilet often enough, and eventually you'll have a poo.

I've already voiced my unimpressed view of 2c mean ensemble data in another thread, so shant repeat myself.

Oh I know it's going to be cold - but hey, it's winter - it's supposed to be. But I guess this cold - our normal, quite dull BI cold - just isn't exciting enough for some people. Unless I start seeing some of these fantasy charts verifying at +72hr range, then I'm just not gonna bother worrying about them. I mean, isn't weather about what happens outside - not on a computer model anyway? I thought it was, maybe I was wrong though.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes, very much so. And guess what, it's "a week away"

Why is it soooo hard for people to understand that, if scenarios like this are forever "a week away" then, just maybe, it's never going to happen? And, instead of lending any credence to models (which are then disproven) perhaps these people need to dismiss such patterns from the outset? Isn't that true 'progress'?

But, by the looks of things, people don't like either admitting that they are wrong, or simply don't want to learn from their mistakes. Probably a lot of ego involved me thinks.

Hi

I think within the context of the winter so far which has been very cold, not just by recent years standards, but by previous historical standards (as snowmaiden illustrates in the Jan CET thread) then it is understandable why folk on here have higher expectations of computer model ice age fantasies coming true. I don't get hooked into them nowadays, like you, but I think that hope and over expectations over come reality too much at times for people. And those expectations, as I say, have been fuelled by the amount of cold weather and snow this winter has already provided.

However, I agree with you very much in terms of ego's. I have always believed that a lot of that goes on in the model thread. The popular winter theme for many members (not all) is cold and snow and so this becomes the attention of the forecasting competitive 'sport' that goes on in the model thread. I post in there and give a tuppence ha'penny bit and although I am also a cold and snow fan , when it comes to the 'i am right/you are wrong beating of the chest bit' it matters not a jot what the outcome is to me. I don't see it as a competition to outwit anyone in terms of being 'right' - ego is just not an issue.

The model thread is treated almost like a football thread.

But at the end of the day the weather does what the weather does and can make monkeys of any of us at any time it wants to! lol!

[SnowBallz]

Hi

I think within the context of the winter so far which has been very cold, not just by recent years standards, but by previous historical standards (as snowmaiden illustrates in the Jan CET thread) then it is understandable why folk on here have higher expectations of computer model ice age fantasies coming true. I don't get hooked into them nowadays, like you, but I think that hope and over expectations over come reality too much at times for people. And those expectations, as I say, have been fuelled by the amount of cold weather and snow this winter has already provided.

However, I agree with you very much in terms of ego's. I have always believed that a lot of that goes on in the model thread. The popular winter theme for many members (not all) is cold and snow and so this becomes the attention of the forecasting competitive 'sport' that goes on in the model thread. I post in there and give a tuppence ha'penny bit and although I am also a cold and snow fan , when it comes to the 'i am right/you are wrong beating of the chest bit' it matters not a jot what the outcome is to me. I don't see it as a competition to outwit anyone in terms of being 'right' - ego is just not an issue.

The model thread is treated almost like a football thread.

But at the end of the day the weather does what the weather does and can make monkeys of any of us at any time it wants to! lol!

EXACTLY!

I have to admit, I do laugh when I read some on the model thread asking for belief or some other rubbish - as if sitting there with their fingers crossed is going to change the weather :blink: I wish it did, but unfortunately we can't control it at all! When I see super computer models not being able to make head nor tail of it, that's when I wonder why us humble little humans torture ourselves so much over it. Yes there are patterns, but they are incredibly general - and that's all.

Hate posting in that thread anyway, 'coz my posts just either get moved or deleted. They seem to hate reading anything which sails against their faux tide - and I stand out like a sore thumb. So I just lurk and that's it.

On that thread, am now being asked to quantify why I don't think Doomsday is going to happen. How hard is it to explain that these models have an appalling record, and thus their output (at mega long-range) shouldn't be trusted? I don't mind checking out charts/models/whatever out to +72, but anything beyond +92 seems like you might as well be playing a game of Russian Roulette :o lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

great to see 06Z trend cold, and meto update, 12Z tonight crucial, if ukmo still shows the same or very similar its easterly off and a mild 1st half at least to feb

[Damp and dreary]

Sorry, mistake, delete please.

Of course you dont have to delete it but then people are going to be wasting their time reading pointless waffle and thats not going to make anyone happy. I could go on.

Edited January 30, 2010 by jasonuk

[MR EXTREMES]

well firstly after the model output have been shutdown and i admit i was rather shocked by comments made.

ive moved home to here the mood is just a little better in here but im really happy with the weeks outputs

and even more happy with the meto update for the 4th day in a row calling for the easterly,

with support most days by models with ukmo model throwing a fit this morning i think the evolution of an easterly of some type will happen.

and to think the meto dont support there own model is even better lol if your a coldie like me.

and to be honest even if the ukmo does not come on board this afternoon,

i will still be in the opion that cold could be on the way unless ofcoarse the rest fall to peices aswell,

im wondering whether the weaking of the nino maybe throwing the atmosphere into a wobble having a knock on effect with the models.

but theres a big divide in the forums at the moment but i expect its because of the 50/50 situation my opion is the alantic is not a big player really jet aswell is a major player so as long as it stays south and blcoking comes into play then game on.

[Damp and dreary]

Well im in a bad mood and dont want visitors, might be the hangover so i would just ignore me!

[John London]

The next person that writes "Like I said earlier in the previous thread tonights output will be very important" will go directly in my 'Ignore This Person' little black book.

[Damp and dreary]

The next person that writes "Like I said earlier in the previous thread tonights output will be very important" will go directly in my 'Ignore This Person' little black book.

And 'at the end of the day' too, that one annoys me (still hungover methinks)

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

A the end of the day it is only computer models, and the weather does what the weather does.

So true I'm afraid.

[SP1986]

Like I said before, it's true what Tamara says, because at the end of the day, what happens will happen.

(As you can see I have no regard, im used to being ignored )

[jtay]

That certainly has to be the funniest afternoon of model watching in my three years on Netweather.

If you haven't already; I urge you to read the previous model thread, followed by the latest.

Snowballz 1 - TITIS 0.

Absolute classic.

[REXUS]

That certainly has to be the funniest afternoon of model watching in my three years on Netweather.

If you haven't already; I urge you to read the previous model thread, followed by the latest.

Snowballz 1 - TITIS 0.

Absolute classic.

I Think i'd rather liston to TEITS Than snowb*ll***s

[Damp and dreary]

Lol, yeah i read all that, not commenting on any of it though, call me a chicken see if i care! And at the end of the day arghhhhh now im at it.

And on to the weather.....

When will it be shown that one of the models has got it wrong? running out of time now so surely its got to be soon!

P.S Tamara and Stephen you both smell.

Edited January 30, 2010 by jasonuk

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I Think i'd rather liston to TEITS Than snowb*ll***s

agree TEITS legend, SnowBallz = nobody never be on again

[John London]

"The Beast From The East" will be here on the 8th February because Cooling Climate" said it would. I have booked a days holiday to watch it, and even invested in a pair of binoculars so I can be the first to see it arrive.

[Ian Fergusson]

"The Beast From The East" will be here on the 8th February because Cooling Climate" said it would. I have booked a days holiday to watch it, and even invested in a pair of binoculars so I can be the first to see it arrive.

Hilarious stuff. A sense of humour still prevails.

Plus - hopefully - a sense of scientific perspective (as opposed to 'X-Files'ology) also still prevails on this forum about a sole set of model progs versus the wider, collective picture...... and hey, whatever the end result, proper science must always overcome the fantasy, wishful thinking, pre-conceptions, hyperbole and associated nonsense that can become oh-so-tiresome and combative.

Darwin would readily atttest to this view, if he was still alive.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[jtay]

Arguing the toss is pointless enough, but arguing a toss that is yet to take place has got to bordering on a definition of madness...

but very funny all the same.

[SP1986]

Hilarious stuff. A sense of humour still prevails.

Plus - hopefully - a sense of scientific perspective (as opposed to 'X-Files'ology) also still prevails on this forum about a sole set of model progs versus the wider, collective picture...... and hey, whatever the end result, proper science must always overcome the fantasy, wishful thinking, pre-conceptions, hyperbole and associated nonsense that can become oh-so-tiresome and combative.

Darwin would readily atttest to this view, if he was still alive.

Exactly! Now where are those southwesterlies?

It is interesting to see the psychology of the forum when this sort of exciting scenario occurs, a proper battle. It makes you think that 5 years ago when the term rollercoaster was being used has nothing on now.